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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9912 on: October 28, 2020, 02:37:43 PM »
A mutation that is MUCH more lethal will tend to die out more quickly for obvious reasons, think about ebola and how it spreads and then stops.

An exception would be a deadly virus that has a long latency period where folks are contagious without knowing it.

This is going to happen again, in some form, and MAYBE we can learn something from the experience?
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9913 on: October 28, 2020, 03:03:53 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 01:56:29 PM
This is being discussed in the Week 2 B1G thread.
Yeah but who wants to go over THERE?

I don't think the B1G really has any room in the schedule for makeups, the 12/19 date is as late as the CFP and bowls are going to wait.  I suppose they could play conference games during the post-season if they really wanted to, though.

But the additional problem is that the B1G's rules are more strict on quarantine/return-to-play than are the B12, SEC, or ACC.  Players are out for 21 days, basically.  So Wisconsin is most likely not canceling one game, but three, at this point.

Tough year, for everybody, all the way around.

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9914 on: October 28, 2020, 03:15:05 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 03:03:53 PM
I don't think the B1G really has any room in the schedule for makeups, the 12/19 date is as late as the CFP and bowls are going to wait.  I suppose they could play conference games during the post-season if they really wanted to, though.

I believe that the B1G has already declared that any game unable to be played will be a no-contest, not postponed.

Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 02:37:43 PM
A mutation that is MUCH more lethal will tend to die out more quickly for obvious reasons, think about ebola and how it spreads and then stops.

An exception would be a deadly virus that has a long latency period where folks are contagious without knowing it.

This is going to happen again, in some form, and MAYBE we can learn something from the experience?
Well that's often true, there are counterexamples. 

HIV is one of them. Prior to having the effective treatments that have been developed over the last 2 decades, it was a death sentence. But the contagious lag time between infection and showing any symptoms of your immune system deficiency is YEARS. 

And we don't need to talk about something that is MUCH more lethal. If COVID were 3-4 times more lethal than it is, that would be terrible but it still wouldn't create a lethality that would cause the infection rate to burn out the way ebola does. Especially if despite being much more lethal, there was still an asymptomatic spread aspect of it. 
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9915 on: October 28, 2020, 03:17:45 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 28, 2020, 03:15:05 PM
I believe that the B1G has already declared that any game unable to be played will be a no-contest, not postponed.
Well that's often true, there are counterexamples.

HIV is one of them. Prior to having the effective treatments that have been developed over the last 2 decades, it was a death sentence. But the contagious lag time between infection and showing any symptoms of your immune system deficiency is YEARS.

And we don't need to talk about something that is MUCH more lethal. If COVID were 3-4 times more lethal than it is, that would be terrible but it still wouldn't create a lethality that would cause the infection rate to burn out the way ebola does. Especially if despite being much more lethal, there was still an asymptomatic spread aspect of it.
Unless your name is Magic, of course.
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U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9916 on: October 28, 2020, 03:31:01 PM »
Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 28, 2020, 03:17:45 PM
Unless your name is Magic, of course.
He came down with it just inside the treatable window luckily
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They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9917 on: October 28, 2020, 03:59:16 PM »
Quote from: bwarbiany on October 28, 2020, 03:15:05 PM
I believe that the B1G has already declared that any game unable to be played will be a no-contest, not postponed.
Well that's often true, there are counterexamples.

HIV is one of them. Prior to having the effective treatments that have been developed over the last 2 decades, it was a death sentence. But the contagious lag time between infection and showing any symptoms of your immune system deficiency is YEARS.

And we don't need to talk about something that is MUCH more lethal. If COVID were 3-4 times more lethal than it is, that would be terrible but it still wouldn't create a lethality that would cause the infection rate to burn out the way ebola does. Especially if despite being much more lethal, there was still an asymptomatic spread aspect of it.
There's no way to know for sure, but I don't really agree with the spirit of this assertion.  Sure it might not be as lethal as ebola, but that's a pretty high bar to set.  It could be significantly less lethal than ebola and still burn itself out quickly.  So I think it would almost certainly burn out much faster if it were 3-4 times more lethal than it is currently.  The onset of symptoms would potentially be faster and more severe so there could actually be less chance for asymptomatic transmission (which even now is in doubt among doctors).
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9918 on: October 28, 2020, 04:07:49 PM »
HIV could be said to have a long latency period where a person is asymptomatic and contagious.  And it takes a long time to kill a person, relatively.

So, it had a near 100% mortality rate, but over a longer period of time.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9919 on: October 28, 2020, 04:30:17 PM »
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-idUSKBN27D2WO?fbclid=IwAR132jMAWseK18HbJV-xTj-BWg0bRlHIVAn8AeiadgGoIZhdg4xVDilUOU0

France going to a pretty stiff lockdown Monday .... while schools remain open.  You read that right.

PARIS (Reuters) - France will go back into a nationwide lockdown starting this week to try to contain the COVID-19 epidemic that is again threatening to spiral out of control, French President Emmanuel Macron said in an address to the nation on Wednesday.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9920 on: October 28, 2020, 04:33:11 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on October 28, 2020, 03:59:16 PM
There's no way to know for sure, but I don't really agree with the spirit of this assertion.  Sure it might not be as lethal as ebola, but that's a pretty high bar to set.  It could be significantly less lethal than ebola and still burn itself out quickly.  So I think it would almost certainly burn out much faster if it were 3-4 times more lethal than it is currently.  The onset of symptoms would potentially be faster and more severe so there could actually be less chance for asymptomatic transmission (which even now is in doubt among doctors).
Obviously we're talking complete conjecture here about how it might happen. My only point is that it is not a foregone conclusion that mutation will make it easier to deal with. It could make it harder, potentially MUCH harder. It's random chance. 

But yes, one would assume [a dangerous word] that if the virus got much more severe, there would be a lot fewer asymptomatic cases. Logically you'd think symptoms would come on more quickly and more severely, reducing the ability to transmit the virus because you would know you have it. 

Nature doesn't always follow our logical rules, though...
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9921 on: October 28, 2020, 04:34:02 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 28, 2020, 04:07:49 PM
HIV could be said to have a long latency period where a person is asymptomatic and contagious.  And it takes a long time to kill a person, relatively.

So, it had a near 100% mortality rate, but over a longer period of time.

Nobody was contracting HIV by breathing contaminated air for 15 minutes or getting coughed on.  I don't think it's very representative or worthwhile as a comparison to the airborne viruses.
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9922 on: October 28, 2020, 04:35:07 PM »
my doc said folks and children that are asymptomatic are not spreading the virus
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"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9923 on: October 28, 2020, 04:35:19 PM »
It is possible of course for a virus to have a long latency period and be highly lethal, the worst possible situation (HIV is kind of that way).

You're only hope is the method of transmission can be interrupted, as it was with HIV fairly quickly.

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9924 on: October 28, 2020, 04:35:44 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on October 28, 2020, 04:35:07 PM
my doc said folks and children that are asymptomatic are not spreading the virus
I'm not sure I believe this.
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9925 on: October 28, 2020, 04:36:59 PM »
I'm not either, but he's a pretty solid guy

perhaps they are able to spread it, it's just not nearly as common as folks that are sick and showing symptoms
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"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."
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