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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
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longhorn320 · « **Reply #9240 on:** October 13, 2020, 11:11:17 AM »

Quote from: FearlessF on October 13, 2020, 10:11:10 AM

DES MOINES, Iowa — As of 9:00 a.m. on Monday, Oct. 12th, 2020, 100,044 people have been infected with the novel coronavirus in the Hawkeye State.

Of those, 425 infections are new over the last 24-hours, since 9:00 a.m. Sunday.

So far, 76,491 recoveries have been recorded, up by 237.

There are currently 449 people hospitalized due to coronavirus in the state, up by 11 since yesterday; 109 patients are currently in the ICU.

State health officials say 1,462 people have died due to the disease, up 2.

The above numbers add up to 22,091 active COVID infections statewide, an all-time high for the state.

As of now, 864,455 individuals in Iowa have been tested for COVID infection.

I think Iowa should monitor this closely but dont feel its alarming yet

if only 109 are in ICU its very manageable

so far the death count is very good compared to other states

not saying its good only that it could be far worse

bayareabadger · « **Reply #9241 on:** October 13, 2020, 11:12:49 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 09:11:25 AM

Yep. Left Kenosha just in time, just as we left Florida just in time back in early June.

A friend with family up there said the northern half of the state is taking the worst of it, which somewhat dovetails with my "we sometimes look too much for reasons theory," though it might be confirmation bias.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #9242 on:** October 13, 2020, 11:20:29 AM »

Not much of the state is in great shape, as far as case rates go.

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/county.htm#rate%20map

In terms of death rate, they are in better shape (so far).

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/county.htm#number%20deaths%20map

FearlessF · « **Reply #9243 on:** October 13, 2020, 11:25:17 AM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 11:11:17 AM

I think Iowa should monitor this closely but dont feel its alarming yet

if only 109 are in ICU its very manageable

so far the death count is very good compared to other states

not saying its good only that it could be far worse

agreed

just a bit disappointing, I keep hoping for much better news

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #9244 on:** October 13, 2020, 01:20:46 PM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 09:23:09 AM

While the number of positive cases is of interest I think the better stat to monitor is hospitalizations and deaths

That is because the number of tests will not affect these stats

I would be curious to look at the % of increase or decrease of these two stats in states with increasing positive cases

It's always tough because both hospitalizations and deaths lag case increases--deaths typically lag about 3 weeks. And a lot of those northern states have smaller populations, so daily death numbers tend to be pretty noisy.

On a national level, we've seen a marked increase (~20%) in the 7-day moving average of daily cases in the last two weeks. If things follow trend, the national daily death rates should start rising in roughly about 10 days. It's been pretty stable for weeks now.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #9245 on:** October 13, 2020, 01:28:34 PM »

The treatments are better now than they have ever been. Hopefully the death numbers are much lower as a result.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #9246 on:** October 13, 2020, 01:34:29 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 13, 2020, 01:20:46 PM

It's always tough because both hospitalizations and deaths lag case increases--deaths typically lag about 3 weeks. And a lot of those northern states have smaller populations, so daily death numbers tend to be pretty noisy.

On a national level, we've seen a marked increase (~20%) in the 7-day moving average of daily cases in the last two weeks. If things follow trend, the national daily death rates should start rising in roughly about 10 days. It's been pretty stable for weeks now.

actually over the last two weeks its closer to 10%

and the deaths might not have an increase due to increased testing and improved treatment methods

lets hope

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #9247 on:** October 13, 2020, 01:36:21 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on October 13, 2020, 01:28:34 PM

The treatments are better now than they have ever been. Hopefully the death numbers are much lower as a result.

Reported deaths are trending stably in the ~725 daily range. Looking back 2-3 weeks, we had a pretty stable daily new case rate somewhere in the ~41K range.

That would be roughly a 1.75% death rate for *confirmed* cases. Obviously we don't know the true denominator of actual cases over that period (asympotmatic / untested)... So the true IFR is assuredly lower than that; we just don't know by how much. But that's not a particularly good rate especially now that we have more tests available and lower positive percentages in most places. Especially given that we believe that young people are making up more of the positive confirmed cases these days.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #9248 on:** October 13, 2020, 01:39:07 PM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 01:34:29 PM

actually over the last two weeks its closer to 10%

I looked back to Sep 28 and worldometers had the 7-day MA at 41,688. Yesterday it was at 50,612... 21.4% increase.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #9249 on:** October 13, 2020, 01:41:44 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 13, 2020, 01:36:21 PM

Reported deaths are trending stably in the ~725 daily range. Looking back 2-3 weeks, we had a pretty stable daily new case rate somewhere in the ~41K range.

That would be roughly a 1.75% death rate for *confirmed* cases. Obviously we don't know the true denominator of actual cases over that period (asympotmatic / untested)... So the true IFR is assuredly lower than that; we just don't know by how much. But that's not a particularly good rate especially now that we have more tests available and lower positive percentages in most places. Especially given that we believe that young people are making up more of the positive confirmed cases these days.

There are going to be deaths, for sure, and a lot of them are just people who are not healthy. Co-morbids are huge here, and most of the deaths have 3 or more. There just isn't much that can be done for most of those.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #9250 on:** October 13, 2020, 02:13:40 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on October 13, 2020, 01:39:07 PM

I looked back to Sep 28 and worldometers had the 7-day MA at 41,688. Yesterday it was at 50,612... 21.4% increase.

looking at weekly totals

week ending 9/24/20 the total 7 day amount was 310,875

week ending 10/1/20 the total 7 day amount was 309,200

week ending 10/8/20 the total 7 day amount was 339,092

week ending 10/12/20 the total 7 day amount was 358,145

increase is about 16% from 309,200 to 358,145

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #9251 on:** October 13, 2020, 02:45:46 PM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on October 13, 2020, 02:13:40 PM

looking at weekly totals

week ending 9/24/20 the total 7 day amount was 310,875

week ending 10/1/20 the total 7 day amount was 309,200

week ending 10/8/20 the total 7 day amount was 339,092

week ending 10/12/20 the total 7 day amount was 358,145

increase is about 16% from 309,200 to 358,145

Interesting. What source are you using?

Worldometers shows a 7-day MA of 43,035 on Oct 1, and from that you get that there were 301,245 over the previous 7 days. So that's a little lower than what you're showing. Not sure where the disconnect is.

That said you want to actually do a 2-week period based on an Oct 1 date, you should wait a few more days to the week ending 10/15. For 10/12, you would use a 7-day total ending 9/29. But since the 9/24 was also basically the same level, we can assume that the 7 day total ending 9/29 was likely right around 310K anyway.

I'm not going to quibble over the difference between 16% and my original 20%, but it's still a fair jump above 10%.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #9252 on:** October 13, 2020, 02:52:16 PM »

Not gonna quibble? You feeling OK?

FearlessF · « **Reply #9253 on:** October 13, 2020, 02:53:30 PM »

well, it is his buddy 320

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

longhorn320

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

bayareabadger

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847badgerfan

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FearlessF

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betarhoalphadelta

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847badgerfan

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longhorn320

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betarhoalphadelta

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betarhoalphadelta

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847badgerfan

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longhorn320

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betarhoalphadelta

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847badgerfan

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FearlessF

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