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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9198 on: October 11, 2020, 07:52:39 PM »
crickets
Planning on replying tomorrow. Don't want to pull the laptop out today and hate long replies on the phone. 

Kris60

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9199 on: October 11, 2020, 08:00:02 PM »
Masks or no, anyone who shows up to a football game right now is kinda making the statement that they've assumed the risk for themselves. And anyone who thinks that's a stupid risk is free to avoid attending [as I would avoid if it were me].

The question comes down to whether we should allow stupid people to be stupid in large groups, knowing that infections will then spread outward from there once they all leave the game.
I disagree with this. When I read your posts it seems like you think anyone who attends a football game (or honestly, does anything that isn’t an absolute necessity) is exhibiting a devil may care attitude.  I think there are a lot of people in the middle between never leaving the house and going to a bar with wall to wall people.

I think that because that’s where I am. I think it would be entirely possible to go to a football game with 15k in attendance in a 80k capacity stadium and really have very little interaction with other people.  I actually wouldn’t consider that a huge risk.

My impression is you consider anyone who does anything that isn’t a necessity as someone who is reckless and takes no precautions.  Maybe I’m reading too much into your posts. Idk.

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9200 on: October 11, 2020, 11:17:38 PM »
GREELEY, Colo. -- A medical professional hired to screen employees at the JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley claims she was pressured to get employees through the door and feels the company continues to put workers at risk.

The claims come roughly six months after one of the nation’s largest plants was forced to close after an outbreak of COVID-19.


“I want the governor to know. I want everyone to know,” Buck said. “I want them to know those employees are in danger,” said Sarah-Jean Buck, a licensed medical assistant who was hired through a temp agency to screen employees of the JBS meatpacking plant in Greeley.

Buck made her claims in a signed affidavit and in an exclusive television interview with Denver7 Investigates. She spent two months working at the plant.

Buck was working as a temporary employee through a private contractor hired by JBS. Her responsibility was to question, screen and take temperatures of the thousands of employees reporting for work each day.

She said her greatest concern was being told to let employees enter the plant, regardless of if they were sick or not.


https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/investigations/whistleblower-says-covid-19-screening-process-at-jbs-plant-places-employees-in-danger
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9201 on: October 11, 2020, 11:22:16 PM »
crickets
You're watching the clock on a web forum on a Sunday, with posters across 4 time zones.  Exhibit A.
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9202 on: October 11, 2020, 11:40:42 PM »
You're watching the clock on a web forum on a Sunday, with posters across 4 time zones.  Exhibit A.
and yet you found the time to post amazing

still crickets 
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9203 on: October 12, 2020, 05:58:35 AM »
https://judithcurry.com/2020/10/10/what-the-pandemic-has-taught-us-about-science/#more-26644

An interesting read, for me anyway, whatever you may think about Curry.

The health of science depends on tolerating, even encouraging, at least some disagreement. In practice, science is prevented from turning into religion not by asking scientists to challenge their own theories but by getting them to challenge each other, sometimes with gusto. Where science becomes political, as in climate change and Covid-19, this diversity of opinion is sometimes extinguished in the pursuit of a consensus to present to a politician or a press conference, and to deny the oxygen of publicity to cranks. This year has driven home as never before the message that there is no such thing as “the science”; there are different scientific views on how to suppress the virus.

Anthony Fauci, the chief scientific adviser in the U.S., was adamant in the spring that a lockdown was necessary and continues to defend the policy. His equivalent in Sweden, Anders Tegnell, by contrast, had insisted that his country would not impose a formal lockdown and would keep borders, schools, restaurants and fitness centers open while encouraging voluntary social distancing. At first, Dr. Tegnell’s experiment looked foolish as Sweden’s case load increased. Now, with cases low and the Swedish economy in much better health than other countries, he looks wise. Both are good scientists looking at similar evidence, but they came to different conclusions.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9204 on: October 12, 2020, 06:14:48 AM »
You're watching the clock on a web forum on a Sunday, with posters across 4 time zones.  Exhibit A.
So, what is the US supposed to do differently? Now, today, and tomorrow too. 
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9205 on: October 12, 2020, 06:18:54 AM »
https://judithcurry.com/2020/10/10/what-the-pandemic-has-taught-us-about-science/#more-26644

An interesting read, for me anyway, whatever you may think about Curry.

The health of science depends on tolerating, even encouraging, at least some disagreement. In practice, science is prevented from turning into religion not by asking scientists to challenge their own theories but by getting them to challenge each other, sometimes with gusto. Where science becomes political, as in climate change and Covid-19, this diversity of opinion is sometimes extinguished in the pursuit of a consensus to present to a politician or a press conference, and to deny the oxygen of publicity to cranks. This year has driven home as never before the message that there is no such thing as “the science”; there are different scientific views on how to suppress the virus.

Anthony Fauci, the chief scientific adviser in the U.S., was adamant in the spring that a lockdown was necessary and continues to defend the policy. His equivalent in Sweden, Anders Tegnell, by contrast, had insisted that his country would not impose a formal lockdown and would keep borders, schools, restaurants and fitness centers open while encouraging voluntary social distancing. At first, Dr. Tegnell’s experiment looked foolish as Sweden’s case load increased. Now, with cases low and the Swedish economy in much better health than other countries, he looks wise. Both are good scientists looking at similar evidence, but they came to different conclusions.
I get a kick out of some of those who display signs or wear t-shirts that say "trust the science" and crap like that.

The science?
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9206 on: October 12, 2020, 06:32:06 AM »
Misunderstanding of science and the scientific process is common, unfortunately, even among some scientists at times.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9207 on: October 12, 2020, 07:13:02 AM »
Florida reported 3700 new cases yesterday. Sounds bad?

107K+ test were done to get that number.

Hospitalizations are down. Percent positive is down. 

I wonder how things will go when things start to get really busy (when the Midwest and NE show up). Hopefully they don't screw things up.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9208 on: October 12, 2020, 01:25:31 PM »
Well, OK, I see some folks posting about doom and gloom and if anyone posted what we SHOULD be doing differently NOW I missed it.
Ok... So here goes.

First thing is that "we" as a formal legislative nation (or republic of legislative states) probably don't need to do much differently. I would like to see coast-to-coast mask mandates. I think restrictions on large gatherings (concerts, sporting events, etc) is probably still good policy. If I were a governor or member of a state legislature, I would NOT reopen large gatherings. Occupancy limits that enforce distancing on indoor dining/bars, etc, are still IMHO good policy. SChools that reopent should make sure they can meet physical distancing guidelines and require masks. If my 11 yo autistic son can wear a mask all day, Karen's little snowflakes can do it. These are easy things that we can do, without completely shuttering the economy, that IMHO are going to help keep R0 down. 

The second thing, however, is messaging. The basic ideas of social distancing, encouraging WFH for any industry/job that can do it, of trying to primarily only congregate with your own household, are important and need to be consistently highlighted AND explained. Where I think we're failing is that people think "reopening" means the danger has passed, but that's far from true. We need to go beyond just saying what is open or closed, and move to explain to people what they should be doing and why. 

So I'd try to actively message the following:

-The key of all this behavior modification is to reduce the spread, not necessarily to change the risk of any given individual from contracting the virus. Too many young people are cavalier about their behavior because they're not in an age group that they're afraid of poor outcomes from the virus. Too many people are refusing to wear masks because they don't think they need to protect themselves. The whole idea is to reduce R0, and that comes from everyone taking basic precautions to reduce the spread, not to avoid getting infected themselves. 

-The best way to reduce the spread is to WFH, to stay home with the exception of essential business, and to only congregate with your own household. However that's known to be unrealistic, both for huge portions of the population who can't do it (i.e. can't WFH), and for the emotional/mental health aspects of isolation. But people should think about that as the "baseline goal" to work from. 

-If you need--or want--to move up from the baseline, there are ways to do so more responsibly:

  • I've heard of families with kids basically setting up a quarantine family that they spend time with. The idea is that they can socialize, their kids can socialize, but that outside of the socialization between the two families, they try to isolate as much as possible. 
  • Close friends who are attempting to isolate in general might hang out with their usual friends, but try to AVOID any interaction outside of a certain social circle. What you DON'T want to do is go out 3 nights a week with 3 different groups of people and hit the bar or restaurant unmasked. It's much more responsible to try to stay with the same people, so that at least if there is someone who contracts the virus, you keep infections within that one group. 
  • If you have a larger event that you MUST attend (wedding, birthday party, other event etc), try to isolate and be as careful as possible for the 7-10 days leading up to that event, to try to avoid bringing the virus to the event with you. After the event, try to isolate and be as careful as possible (especially in any interaction with someone from a vulnerable group) for 7-10 days to ensure that you have not contracted the virus and are contagious. 
  • Above all, when it's possible to make simple modifications to an event, do so. Instead of greeting with hugs or handshakes, greet with a fist bump. If possible, keep visits outside as much as possible. 


-The key of all these modifications is to be cognizant that you may not be able to 100% avoid the virus in life, but that we ALL need to work together to reduce R0. That doesn't mean "stay at home in fear of the world", but that means that reopening is not "back to normal". 

The other thing about ALL working together? It means that can't rely only on sheltering vulnerable populations, because we can't always do that. Too many of them have to interact with the world, whether it be for work or otherwise. Thus it means that those of us that have the MOST freedom and capability to avoid engaging in activities which spread it should be extra careful, so that WE don't hurt those in vulnerable populations. 

The goal here is to get through with the least loss of life we can until a vaccine is available. There is a lot of promising work on that, such that I think widespread vaccine availability late in the first half of 2021 is possible. So thinking about every action you take, not just in the arena of "what is my risk of contracting the virus if I do X?" should be modified to be "what is my likelihood of spreading the virus to someone vulnerable if I get it?" instead. 

That's my $0.02. We focus all of our effort on what's open or closed. We don't focus on the messaging of what leads to spread of the virus and how people can engage with the world in less risky ways than just going back to normal. 

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9209 on: October 12, 2020, 01:29:12 PM »
pretty good for 2 cents worth

unfortunately, our "leaders" aren't good with common sense or a common message
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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9210 on: October 12, 2020, 01:39:43 PM »
Testing is important too. We got tested Friday and resulted yesterday. Negative.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9211 on: October 12, 2020, 02:41:12 PM »
I thought we were doing nearly all of that, at least where we live...

 

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