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The experience in Sweden does suggest a lot of us have some resistance to COVID, perhaps developed by exposure to some similar corona virus 2-3-4 years back.  Maybe.

I still can't explain why states and countries see a peak and then it falls off unless that is the case.  If you think folks "get religion" and take precautions more than they did, well, that is a possible factor as well.

I don't see that personally around here.  Precautions are the same as they were in May and June.  We had a surge in June that was very concerning up to nearly 4,000 reported cases per day, and now it has dropped to near 1,000, with no change in state policy and no obvious change in personal behaviors.  School was out in June obviously, it was getting hot if that matters, what else? 

July came and the numbers dropped rather dramatically.  Why?  I don't know, unless the herd thing was approached somehow.

That's absolutely the case, here.  We didn't just reopen back in May/June, but people also became FAR less conscientious about distancing and mask-wearing.  Then the increases began in June/July, not just cases but hospitalizations and deaths.  The bars were shut down again, and people reverted to more careful behavior.

Texas will be reopening bars officially once again, but in reality many of them have been open for a month or two at this point.  They started serving "food" and became reclassified as restaurants, circumventing the rules.  But the distancing and mask-wearing is still FAR more present, than it was during May/June.

Now our cases are mostly tied to younger people who are out and about more than they were in March/April, they're less fearful, and they're testing positive but pretty much zero hospitalizations/deaths are resulting.

This virus is among us, it's not going anywhere, it will be with us forever.  We need to be careful to protect at-risk populations, and beyond that, we need to go back to our lives.  There is no "new normal" because we can't stay hunkered down forever, or even another several months.  This is it.

I'm headed down to the beach in an hour, taking the RV and camping for the next 5 days for the "Columbus Day" weekend.  

We've got prime filet and strip, burgers, dogs, homemade carnitas for tacos, and a bunch of stuff to put in the deep fryer on Saturday to pay tribute to the TX-OU game on Saturday which would normally be going on during the State Fair.  Stupid coronas.

Giddyup.  I like all kinds of tacos.  The tortilla makes a huge difference, home-made (or, I suppose, in-house-made is more accurate) is always so much better than storebought off the shelf, for both corn and flour torts.

Northwestern researchers found that 1 in 5 Chicagoans have antibodies.

I'm telling you all. More of us have had this than we think.

Mrs. 847 and I got tested for the Wuhan Flu today. Every 3-4 weeks. Can't hurt. We have some older friends down here, and we did it for them.

Northwestern researchers found that 1 in 5 Chicagoans have antibodies.

I'm telling you all. More of us have had this than we think.

Personally it's hard to tell if it's the antibodies or Jim Beam

So the Beam is working?

Last I read, the antibody test was not particularly reliable ...

No, the issue with the antibody test is that if the actual incidence in the population of antibodies is very low, then the false positive/negative rates of the test make it difficult to trust the test. 

For example, let's say there's a 1.5% prevalence of antibodies in the population, and the antibody test has a 1% false positive rate. As a result, you'll expect roughly a 2.5% positive result when you test that population.

That's problematic. First because if you're making population-level decisions, and 40% of your positive results are false, it's too big of a proportion. But second, if you're one of those people who received a positive antibody test, you only have 60% confidence that you ACTUALLY have antibodies. So personally do you know that you have actually had COVID when that positive test can only tell you with slightly better than a coin flip confidence?

Now, if you have 20% prevalence of antibodies in the population, and the antibody test has a 1% false positive rate, you'll expect to have a 20.8% positive result when you test that population. That's a much smaller error margin. And if you're one of those who was tested and received a positive result, you now have slightly better than 96% confidence that your test revealed actual antibodies and not a false positive. 

Of course, that's a complex explanation for a complex phenomenon, and the only thing laypeople took from it was that the tests aren't reliable. And then blame "experts" for not knowing what they're talking about.