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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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ELA

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8778 on: September 16, 2020, 02:12:01 PM »
Yeah, that's been a major problem all along.

Our county didn't start disclosing the date range of tests until after we had our first day over 300, and people panicked.  They then noted that it had to do with a backlog at one site, that was counting 60+ days all at once.  The next day it was back down to 120.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8779 on: September 16, 2020, 02:14:24 PM »
My doctor told me last week that my negative test result will not be reported. The test was for a procedure I had done Friday and that's it.

Kinda f'd up in my opinion.
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ELA

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8780 on: September 16, 2020, 02:18:50 PM »
My doctor told me last week that my negative test result will not be reported. The test was for a procedure I had done Friday and that's it.

Kinda f'd up in my opinion.
Eh, I disagree.  You didn't take the test due to symptoms or contact, you took it due to a requirement.  You wouldn't have otherwise even been tested, so I don't want that data in the system either way.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8781 on: September 16, 2020, 02:21:43 PM »
Had I tested positive, it would have been in the system. You don't see the problem here?

Lots of people test positive with no symptoms. They go in the system (at least I hope so).
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8782 on: September 16, 2020, 02:25:36 PM »
If a test is performed its results should be logged.


FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8783 on: September 16, 2020, 02:41:58 PM »
all test results should be logged

hospitalizations and deaths should be reported to the public

IF they are caused by COVID-19
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ELA

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8784 on: September 16, 2020, 02:48:39 PM »
If we are testing everyone, regularly, I'd be on board with that.

I would be interested in splitting up the positivity numbers, to see what it is for people who were tested due to symptoms, vs. people who were tested vs. contact tracing.  In that event, then yes, add another category under people who were tested mandatorily for work/procedures/travel, etc.

But the combined data of people who could possibly have it due to being symptomatic and/or contact tracing, is not aided by also throwing in the arbitrary group of people who were having elective surgery.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8785 on: September 16, 2020, 02:52:27 PM »
If we are testing everyone, regularly, I'd be on board with that.

I would be interested in splitting up the positivity numbers, to see what it is for people who were tested due to symptoms, vs. people who were tested vs. contact tracing.  In that event, then yes, add another category under people who were tested mandatorily for work/procedures/travel, etc.

But the combined data of people who could possibly have it due to being symptomatic and/or contact tracing, is not aided by also throwing in the arbitrary group of people who were having elective surgery.

Last Friday 1,100 UT students were tested because they wanted to go to the football game and the test was required by the university, with a negative result, before they were allowed to do so.  Otherwise those students wouldn't have been tested at all.  None were symptomatic.

Yet 95 of them tested positive.

Those results should be logged, as should be the other 1,005 that tested negative.

So I don't agree with your position.  Regardless of WHY a test was administered, its results should be logged.  Logging ONLY the positives leads to an artificially high % of positives in the population.  And communities are using those positivity rates to determine really important things like school openings, restaurant openings, etc. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8786 on: September 16, 2020, 02:52:46 PM »
I know there's so much emphasis put on %positive results, and to an extent I get it... Generally you have to assume that if the %positive out of total tests is high, that there are a bunch of people not getting tested. If the %positive out of total is low, it suggests you're testing regime is widespread enough to catch most of the actual cases. 

But it seems like a statistic that would be WAY too easy to throw false or misleading information. It's a data machete when you need a data scalpel. 

Which IMHO is why the %positive metric should be important for epidemiologists, but when used as the basis for a whole bunch of things like what portions of the economy are open or on lockdown, it's not the right tool for the job. 


utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8787 on: September 16, 2020, 02:55:10 PM »
I know there's so much emphasis put on %positive results, and to an extent I get it... Generally you have to assume that if the %positive out of total tests is high, that there are a bunch of people not getting tested. If the %positive out of total is low, it suggests you're testing regime is widespread enough to catch most of the actual cases.

But it seems like a statistic that would be WAY too easy to throw false or misleading information. It's a data machete when you need a data scalpel.

Which IMHO is why the %positive metric should be important for epidemiologists, but when used as the basis for a whole bunch of things like what portions of the economy are open or on lockdown, it's not the right tool for the job.



And I absolutely agree with this 100%.  

But as long as it is being used for those purposes, even though I disagree with it being used for those purposes, then we can't just throw out large groupings of negative results while still counting the positive results.  It makes a bad problem even worse.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8788 on: September 16, 2020, 02:59:52 PM »
And I absolutely agree with this 100%. 

But as long as it is being used for those purposes, even though I disagree with it being used for those purposes, then we can't just throw out large groupings of negative results while still counting the positive results.  It makes a bad problem even worse.
Agree. Badge's negative result should be counted.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8789 on: September 16, 2020, 03:04:24 PM »
If we are testing everyone, regularly, I'd be on board with that.

I would be interested in splitting up the positivity numbers, to see what it is for people who were tested due to symptoms, vs. people who were tested vs. contact tracing.  In that event, then yes, add another category under people who were tested mandatorily for work/procedures/travel, etc.

But the combined data of people who could possibly have it due to being symptomatic and/or contact tracing, is not aided by also throwing in the arbitrary group of people who were having elective surgery.
Nobody elects to have an old man scope.
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ELA

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8790 on: September 16, 2020, 03:10:41 PM »
I know there's so much emphasis put on %positive results, and to an extent I get it... Generally you have to assume that if the %positive out of total tests is high, that there are a bunch of people not getting tested. If the %positive out of total is low, it suggests you're testing regime is widespread enough to catch most of the actual cases.

But it seems like a statistic that would be WAY too easy to throw false or misleading information. It's a data machete when you need a data scalpel.

Which IMHO is why the %positive metric should be important for epidemiologists, but when used as the basis for a whole bunch of things like what portions of the economy are open or on lockdown, it's not the right tool for the job.


Yes, this I agree with, but the problem is that it is.

As long as that's the case, then we need to set a defined parameter that makes sense, AND determine what is acceptable rate within that.  There is value in contact tracing and helping researchers understand the virus in arbitrary testing for admission to certain things, but for public policy decisions it doesn't.

The reason 8% or 10% or whatever is the threshold for what is concerning is because we are only testing a specific group.  If you widen who is getting tested, then that gets a whole lot lower.  That's why the metrics the sports, doing mandatory testing, are using, are much, much lower.  If you were simply testing everyone, for no reason, at all, and were still getting 8% positivity rate, that would be horrifying.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8791 on: September 16, 2020, 03:12:00 PM »
Yes, this I agree with, but the problem is that it is.

As long as that's the case, then we need to set a defined parameter that makes sense, AND determine what is acceptable rate within that.  There is value in contact tracing and helping researchers understand the virus in arbitrary testing for admission to certain things, but for public policy decisions it doesn't.

The reason 8% or 10% or whatever is the threshold for what is concerning is because we are only testing a specific group.  If you widen who is getting tested, then that gets a whole lot lower.  That's why the metrics the sports, doing mandatory testing, are using, are much, much lower.  If you were simply testing everyone, for no reason, at all, and were still getting 8% positivity rate, that would be horrifying.

You can't count a positive result, and omit a negative result, for the same test.  It skews the data in an artificial direction.  This is the fundamental problem with your position.


 

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