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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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MaximumSam

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8232 on: August 24, 2020, 08:53:25 AM »
The numbers look pretty good pretty much everywhere.  I think the question is whether a second wave comes and what that looks like (and when).

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8233 on: August 24, 2020, 09:23:53 AM »
I see little evidence to suggest any "second wave" phenomenon.  This virus is not seasonal, apparently.  It is possible that our winter habits could enable more contagion, but that is not a given.

We could struggle to differentiate between a cold, the flu, and Corona come winter.

MaximumSam

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8234 on: August 24, 2020, 09:53:36 AM »
I see little evidence to suggest any "second wave" phenomenon.  This virus is not seasonal, apparently.  It is possible that our winter habits could enable more contagion, but that is not a given.

We could struggle to differentiate between a cold, the flu, and Corona come winter.
A good follow on this stuff



https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1294192494423482368?s=20

Anyway, to make it short, the reason so many expect it to be seasonal is because coronaviruses and respiratory illnesses (colds and flus) are pretty much all seasonal, and COVID 19 is a respiratory illness and coronavirus.  There hasn't been much evidence to suggest it would act differently than others (though it would be nice if it would!)

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8235 on: August 24, 2020, 11:39:00 AM »
I don't see any evidence to do more than suggest it's seasonal.  It may be, it may not be.  It didn't seem to die back in summer, as flu and colds are wont to do.

When it hit, Australia and Brazil were in March, equivalent to our September.  I don't see much evidence for seasonality based on their experience to date.  When it hits, it hits, it seems, area under the curve.

I personally would consider not an upsurge in the winter as a second wave, it would just be a seasonal increase, if it occurs.  

The 1918 flu had a distinct and obvious second, and third wave clearly evident.  And yes, this could be seasonal, as noted.


MaximumSam

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8236 on: August 24, 2020, 01:04:33 PM »
Certainly, Australia has had more deaths during their winter than during their summer.  Brazil, too.  Melbourne currently in their seventh week of re-lockdown.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8237 on: August 24, 2020, 01:20:32 PM »
The rise down there paralleled the rise in the US and other places in the summer.  Once it hits, it fits.

You can shut down and delay the rate, some, but area under the curve looks to end up in the same place over time, the mask wearing appears to be a powerful variable in that.


Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8238 on: August 24, 2020, 01:25:47 PM »
Brazil looks to have peaked and may be ebbing a bit.  Australia had a peak in March and then abeyance until first of July and then another surge, now declining.  The abeyance was coincident with a shut down.  Peak was early August, which is akin to our January.

I'm sure the confounding variable is country specific actions to control the thing.

So, I think we could see a surge in November, or not, we all hope not, it's possible, but I don't see clear evidence yet of seasonality (or lack thereof).




MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8239 on: August 24, 2020, 01:35:59 PM »
We could struggle to differentiate between a cold, the flu, and Corona come winter.
This! in the last 2 weeks an old friend passed away he had double pneumonia.Back in 2008 he had blood clots on his lungs removed.And was in ICU for a week at the time.Unfortunately my friend was a little stubborn and didn't take the Meds prescribed and put off the Hospital visit and the situation deteriorated.His son drove back from N.Jersey and took him in and he rebounded then passed.The wake & mass was Friday.Not sure about COVID or not

  I get back from a walleye frye on saturday and Cindy finds out her best friend was in the ICU on the other side of town with double pnuemonia.She was in 2 1/2 weeks and was released saturday.No covid though - just don't know sometimes
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8240 on: August 24, 2020, 03:26:02 PM »
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8241 on: August 24, 2020, 03:37:00 PM »
Imagine it's December and you feel a sore throat coming on, usually the harbinger of a cold.  But wait, maybe it's COVID?  Or Flu?  Or dreaded lurgy?  Or sickness caused by lack of football?


longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8242 on: August 24, 2020, 03:39:30 PM »
Imagine it's December and you feel a sore throat coming on, usually the harbinger of a cold.  But wait, maybe it's COVID?  Or Flu?  Or dreaded lurgy?  Or sickness caused by lack of football?


Ive already done that at least 5 times 
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8243 on: August 24, 2020, 03:49:23 PM »
Imagine it's December and you feel a sore throat coming on, usually the harbinger of a cold.  But wait, maybe it's COVID?  Or Flu?  Or dreaded lurgy?  Or sickness caused by lack of football?


Great Siberian Itch, Mad Cow's or the screaming cheetah wheelies
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8244 on: August 25, 2020, 11:19:55 AM »
GA still ebbing across the board fortunately, casual observation suggests mask wearing is diminishing as well.

It's raining today at least.

The shoulder is still sore and a bit stiff but pretty OK.  See the doc tomorrow, stitches out, start PT, looks good.

I found some youtube videos of the surgery.  It's fairly brutal and vigorous apparently, something like putting lift on your Jeep.

bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8245 on: August 25, 2020, 11:42:24 AM »
Imagine it's December and you feel a sore throat coming on, usually the harbinger of a cold.  But wait, maybe it's COVID?  Or Flu?  Or dreaded lurgy?  Or sickness caused by lack of football?


On the plus side, a boatload more people will get tested and the positive rate will drop like a rock.

 

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