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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8176 on: August 19, 2020, 08:35:46 AM »
I keep citing "area under the curve" as being a constant.  That may or may not prove true.  Could an island nation like NZ actually keep this near zero?  Maybe, but perhaps it breaks out in 6 months there (sans vaccine).

I do not know.  The Sweden experience still puzzles me.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8177 on: August 19, 2020, 09:09:39 AM »
This could be battle for the next year or possibly even 2 years. It all depends on travel (people moving around the world). Unless a vaccine is approved and used, that is.

We could beat it here, but then when people start coming over from other places, who knows??
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8178 on: August 19, 2020, 11:09:49 AM »
I keep citing "area under the curve" as being a constant.  That may or may not prove true.  Could an island nation like NZ actually keep this near zero?  Maybe, but perhaps it breaks out in 6 months there (sans vaccine).

I do not know.  The Sweden experience still puzzles me.
If NZ ever "opens up" they're going to have increased cases.  This thing is going to bounce around for years, and they haven't given their population any chance at all to start developing herd immunity.  

I don't disagree with their initial plan, we had no idea what this thing really was.  But at this point, they're simply delaying the inevitable.  

The path is determined-- open slowly, manage the hospitals, and move back to normal.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8179 on: August 19, 2020, 12:00:29 PM »
If NZ ever "opens up" they're going to have increased cases.  This thing is going to bounce around for years, and they haven't given their population any chance at all to start developing herd immunity. 

I don't disagree with their initial plan, we had no idea what this thing really was.  But at this point, they're simply delaying the inevitable. 

The path is determined-- open slowly, manage the hospitals, and move back to normal.
The thing is that because they're an island nation that can tightly control anyone coming into the country, their lockdown wasn't a "lockdown" once they knocked out the cases. They lifted all restrictions (except people coming across their borders) way back in June, and went >100 days without a single case. 

So they fully opened up their economy, just not their borders. Unfortunately about 104 days in, they had a case and now a cluster, that they're dealing with. 

If they can manage this way until a vaccine is available, then they can fully reopen their borders as well. 

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8180 on: August 19, 2020, 02:21:06 PM »
The thing is that because they're an island nation that can tightly control anyone coming into the country, their lockdown wasn't a "lockdown" once they knocked out the cases. They lifted all restrictions (except people coming across their borders) way back in June, and went >100 days without a single case.

So they fully opened up their economy, just not their borders. Unfortunately about 104 days in, they had a case and now a cluster, that they're dealing with.

If they can manage this way until a vaccine is available, then they can fully reopen their borders as well.

Yeah... I know... I'm talking about opening up their island, not their economy.  By no means can you call their island borders "open" right now and, with what minimal entrance they've allowed, and yet they still have already seen a new cluster of spreading infection, as you pointed out. 

Which is precisely my point.  If they want to keep the borders closed to their island forever, that's the only way they're not going to see the spread of infection.  Because their isolated population has never had an opportunity to develop any immunity whatsoever.  Given that tourism is 6% of their economy and is their biggest export industry, I'm not confident they can afford to remain isolated indefinitely.

I also am making no assumptions that there will ever be an effective vaccine, in fact quite the opposite.  If they're counting on that as the only way to get them out of their isolation, well, I don't think that's a wise plan.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8181 on: August 19, 2020, 02:58:41 PM »
Scientists See Signs of Lasting Immunity to Covid-19, Even After Mild Infections

New research indicates that human immune system cells are storing information about the coronavirus so they can fight it off again.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/health/coronavirus-immunity-antibodies.html



Quote
Antibodies also come with an expiration date: Because they are inanimate proteins and not living cells, they can’t replenish themselves, and so disappear from the blood just weeks or months after they are produced. Hordes of antibodies appear shortly after a virus has breached the body’s barriers, then wane as the threat dissipates. Most of the B cells that produce these early antibodies die off as well.

But even when not under siege, the body retains a battalion of longer-lived B cells that can churn out virus-fighting antibodies en masse, should they prove useful again. Some patrol the bloodstream, waiting to be triggered anew; others retreat into the bone marrow, generating small amounts of antibodies that are detectable years, sometimes decades, after an infection is over. Several studies, including those led by Dr. Bhattacharya and Dr. Pepper, have found antibodies capable of incapacitating the coronavirus lingering at low levels in the blood months after people have recovered from Covid-19.

“The antibodies decline, but they settle in what looks like a stable nadir,” which is observable about three months after symptoms start, Dr. Bhattacharya said. “The response looks perfectly durable.”

Seeing antibodies this long after infection is a strong indication that B cells are still chugging away in the bone marrow, Dr. Pepper said. She and her team were also able to pluck B cells that recognize the coronavirus from the blood of people who have recovered from mild cases of Covid-19 and grow them in the lab.
Multiple studies, including one published on Friday in the journal Cell, have also managed to isolate coronavirus-attacking T cells from the blood of recovered individuals — long after symptoms have disappeared. When provoked with bits of the coronavirus in the lab, these T cells pumped out virus-fighting signals, and cloned themselves into fresh armies ready to confront a familiar foe. Some reports have noted that analyses of T cells could give researchers a glimpse into the immune response to the coronavirus, even in patients whose antibody levels have declined to a point where they are difficult to detect.


utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8182 on: August 19, 2020, 03:06:02 PM »
^^^^^^^^

That's some good news.

But the really interesting thing I learned from that article, is that there is a real, actual "Dr. Pepper."

Who knew????

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8183 on: August 19, 2020, 03:06:41 PM »
Scientists See Signs of Lasting Immunity to Covid-19, Even After Mild Infections

New research indicates that human immune system cells are storing information about the coronavirus so they can fight it off again.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/health/coronavirus-immunity-antibodies.html




I saw that one on Sunday. I thought I liked to it - maybe not. It's encouraging.
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Hawkinole

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8184 on: August 20, 2020, 01:20:56 AM »
I received a very sad story from a guy with a small business with whom I am acquainted, a few hours ago, locally here in rural NE Iowa. One of his employees gave notice in July of his intent to retire the end of August. The employee is 65.
The employee died of COVID-19 August 19, 2020.

CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8185 on: August 20, 2020, 07:46:25 AM »
Dr. Fauci has some bad news for recovered coronavirus patients
By Yoni Heisler @edibleapple
August 19th, 2020 at 2:42 PM

  • Coronavirus patients who do not require hospitalization can still experience a number of long-term health issues.
  • Doctors are already finding that otherwise recovered coronavirus victims tend to experience lingering symptoms such as fatigue, breathing issues, and a host of cardiovascular problems.
  • A recent CDC report found that one-third of coronavirus patients endure symptoms that don’t go away.

One of the scariest things about the coronavirus is that there’s still a lot we don’t know about how the virus impacts victims in the longterm. And because the coronavirus can sometimes attack a victim’s organs, it’s entirely possible that a coronavirus infection might wreak havoc on a person’s body in unforeseen ways years down the line. We’re already starting to see this scenario play out amongst a small percentage of coronavirus patients who, even months after recovery, still experience lingering symptoms like fatigue and body aches.
The long term impact of the coronavirus has become more of an issue in recent weeks now that schools are opening back up. While people who advocate schools opening back up tend to argue that kids and teenagers typically don’t experience severe coronavirus symptoms, it remains unclear what type of problems, if any, a positive diagnosis might cause later on.
Touching on this issue, Dr. Anthony Fauci earlier this week warned that it’s naive and dangerous to think that a coronavirus diagnosis isn’t a big deal if it doesn’t involve hospitalization.
“We’d better be careful when we say ‘Young people who don’t wind up in the hospital are fine, let them get infected, it’s OK.’ No, it’s not OK,” Fauci explained during a briefing earlier this week.
“In individuals who are young and otherwise healthy,” Fauci added, “who don’t require hospitalization but do get sick and symptomatic enough to be in bed for a week or two or three and then get better, they clear the virus – they have residual symptoms for weeks and sometimes months.”
Fauci, in remarks picked up by CNN, specifically categorized the situation as “troublesome” while adding that otherwise recovered COVID-19 patients “have a substantially high proportion of cardiovascular abnormalities, evidence of myocarditis by MRI and PET scans, and evidence of emerging cardiomyopathies.”
Some doctors who treat coronavirus patients have also observed a number of other ailments that keep recurring in otherwise recovered patients, including fatigue, trouble breathing and reduced lung capacity, general aches and pains, and even cognition issues in some cases.
Compounding matters is the fact that the coronavirus pandemic has only been around for a few months, which is to say that we still don’t know if COVID-19 symptoms linger on for months before subsiding or if they persist for years.
“I’ll guarantee you if we have this conversation again six months to a year from now, we’ll be reviewing the literature about talking about the long-term deleterious effects of non-hospitalized patients,” Fauci added

A life long Mac user and Apple enthusiast, Yoni Heisler has been writing about Apple and the tech industry at large for over 6 years. His writing has appeared in Edible Apple, Network World, MacLife, Macworld UK, and most recently, TUAW. When not writing about and analyzing the latest happenings with Apple, Yoni enjoys catching Improv shows in Chicago, playing soccer, and cultivating new TV show addictions, the most recent examples being The Walking Dead and Broad City.



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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8186 on: August 20, 2020, 09:32:17 AM »
https://www.ajc.com/education/uga-reports-47-new-covid-19-cases-in-last-week/UISZMTGQBBDWZIS4P3LTICEHK4/

University officials said Wednesday they conducted nearly 800 surveillance tests to identify asymptomatic carriers during that time frame and reported three positive results for a rate of 0.38%, according to its website.


longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8187 on: August 20, 2020, 09:54:30 AM »
what is a surveillance test

never heard of it
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8188 on: August 20, 2020, 10:02:26 AM »
what is a surveillance test

never heard of it
It's a test of a representative sample of some population, not a test of people with symptoms or whatever.  We need that sort of data badly, I think.

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #8189 on: August 20, 2020, 10:30:00 AM »
if said data is used wisely and logically

I have my doubts
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