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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
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betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #6398 on:** July 07, 2020, 12:54:54 PM »

So of the states that have been tracking large increases in cases (FL/GA/TX/AZ/CA), we're starting to see the curve in deaths in FL/TX/AZ. No change to date that I can detect in CA. GA continues to decline in death rate.

Not sure whether CA/GA are the outlier here or FL/TX/AZ are the outlier.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #6399 on:** July 07, 2020, 12:56:39 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on July 07, 2020, 12:44:02 PM

The Facebook epidemiology lessons on T cells are a 200-level course. Most won't get there until next semester.

Some quick wikiresearch suggests there are therapeutic ways to transfer T cells, but they don't look simple by any stretch. I wouldn't hold out hope that this is a good solution for COVID-19.

The big advantage of T-cells is that if they confer long-term immunity, exposure to COVID-19 in a vaccine might teach the body to produce the right type of T-cells on its own, even after antibodies wane.

I'm going to ask the dock Doc about it this coming weekend. He seems to be pretty on top of this thing.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #6400 on:** July 07, 2020, 12:59:21 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on July 07, 2020, 12:54:54 PM

So of the states that have been tracking large increases in cases (FL/GA/TX/AZ/CA), we're starting to see the curve in deaths in FL/TX/AZ. No change to date that I can detect in CA. GA continues to decline in death rate.

Not sure whether CA/GA are the outlier here or FL/TX/AZ are the outlier.

Deaths look like they are trending down in Florida. The peak was a couple of weeks ago. What source are you looking at?

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

Cincydawg · « **Reply #6401 on:** July 07, 2020, 01:03:09 PM »

I made what I thought was an innocent post on FB comparing Georgia and Sweden. They have close to the same population, and of course Sweden went their own way, and Georgia reopened early so I was pondering what that might mean by looking at Sweden.

I got blasted by several other folks, mostly because the death rate in Georgia was, and is, quite a bit lower than that in Sweden. Sweden of course MUST have a far superior medical system, right? I was "informed" that I should not compare the two.

It was quite entertaining. One person claimed that GA was fudging the numbers.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #6402 on:** July 07, 2020, 01:06:20 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 12:59:21 PM

Deaths look like they are trending down in Florida. The peak was a couple of weeks ago. What source are you looking at?

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/florida/

7-day moving average hit a low of 30 on June 18. Since then, it's risen to 48.

They are reporting 63 today, which isn't yet factored into the 7-day MA, but will replace the Jun 30 number which was 58. So after today their 7-day MA will go up slightly further.

BTW your link says this in the far lower right corner:

Quote

Death data often has significant delays in reporting, so data within the past two weeks will be updated frequently.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #6403 on:** July 07, 2020, 01:07:53 PM »

Yes, I saw that disclaimer. So it's more of a reporting thing than an actual thing, I guess.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #6404 on:** July 07, 2020, 01:14:50 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 07, 2020, 01:07:53 PM

Yes, I saw that disclaimer. So it's more of a reporting thing than an actual thing, I guess.

Quite possible that the counties are publicly "reporting" daily based on what the coroners tell them, but that actually getting death certificates into the system has a lag and your site waits until it's "official". I know that CDC data often has a long lag time as well.

Worldometers might be jumping the gun, to some extent, valuing speed over perfect accuracy.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #6405 on:** July 07, 2020, 01:14:57 PM »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/who-officials-are-reviewing-new-evidence-of-airborne-transmission-importance-of-ventilation-in-fighting-coronavirus.html

I got the notion early on that transmission from surfaces was probably rare.

Just wear a mask.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #6406 on:** July 07, 2020, 01:42:37 PM »

Texas deaths may be trending up but what clouds this is the fact that a lot of counties were closed July3 and July 4 with catchup reporting on July 6

If daily deaths remain up for the rest of the week then it does mean Texas is trending up but we need to let the rest of the week play out

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #6407 on:** July 07, 2020, 02:25:44 PM »

Teachers might as well be garbage men.

FL saying there must be in-person school at full capacity, knowing proper distancing is physically impossible and no additional funding for all the other safeguards......it's not just incompetence anymore, it's evil.

Damn GOP leaders have me talking like a wacky church-goer now.

It's all broken.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #6408 on:** July 07, 2020, 03:05:30 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 07, 2020, 02:25:44 PM

Teachers might as well be garbage men.

FL saying there must be in-person school at full capacity, knowing proper distancing is physically impossible and no additional funding for all the other safeguards......it's not just incompetence anymore, it's evil.

Even left-wing Kevin Drum says that reopening schools is a good idea. Experience in Germany and Denmark agrees.

https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2020/06/another-look-at-reopening-schools/

Quote

However, we have substantial evidence that closing schools has very little effect on the spread of COVID-19. First, there are studies that look at the effect of various countermeasures, such as this one:

[img width=1066 height=544.125]https://www.motherjones.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/blog_covid19_countermeasures.gif[/img][/size][/color]
There have been several other similar empirical studies, and they all conclude that school closures have little effect. (In fact, the study above suggests that closing schools might increase the spread of the virus.)
Second, there’s the experience of other countries. In Germany, which is the gold standard for responding to COVID-19, schools were reopened last May with appropriate precautions and it hasn’t been a problem. Ditto for Denmark and a few others.
I understand how frustrating this is. Logic suggests that reopening schools should be a disaster for both kids and teachers, but both empirical research and experience in other countries says it’s not. The problem is that, as near as I can tell, nobody can explain why it’s not a disaster. It just isn’t.

Plus, I'd rather die of COVID than deal with a full goddamn year of my kids not going to school.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #6409 on:** July 07, 2020, 03:11:26 PM »

The American Academy of Pediatrics and Dr Fauci both say that schools should be reopened.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/us/aap-kids-physically-in-school-wellness-trnd/index.html

If you claim to listen to the experts (doctors and the leading national governmental authority on infectious disease), I think you might want to dig in on this one a little more.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #6410 on:** July 07, 2020, 03:45:48 PM »

There is no question schools need to open. The thought around these parts is that they will open, and rotate between students and the days they attend. Student A would go to school MWF for one week, and TR the next.

There is also talk of a 365 day school year, but try that moving that one on the teachers. I've already heard rumblings of a strike if the district tries to implement. But hey, it's all about the children!!

Cincydawg · « **Reply #6411 on:** July 07, 2020, 04:14:07 PM »

I think the easiest way to form an opinion is pretty simple, if a Republican (or Democrat) proposes it, it's really bad, stupid, inane, and evil, but if a Democrat (or Republican) proposes it, it's a great idea. You run into problems when a Republican governor proposes it and then a Democratic governor from a neighboring state proposes the same thing.

Then you blame it on the media, or somebody else.

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

betarhoalphadelta

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

847badgerfan

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847badgerfan

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Cincydawg

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betarhoalphadelta

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847badgerfan

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betarhoalphadelta

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Cincydawg

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longhorn320

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OrangeAfroMan

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

betarhoalphadelta

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

betarhoalphadelta

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847badgerfan

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Cincydawg

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas