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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
(Read 771017 times)

FearlessF · « **Reply #6104 on:** June 30, 2020, 12:00:55 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 11:51:47 AM

I would close bars and gyms and limit indoor dining. I'm far from convinced that would have a significant impact now. I would encourage at every opp mask wearing.

is there a big difference in outdoor or indoor dining?
does an entire room get infected because HVAC doesn't refresh the air as the breeze outside?

Cincydawg · « **Reply #6105 on:** June 30, 2020, 12:01:50 PM »

I think droplets are better scattered outdoors than indoors, the wind is blowing (which could be bad), and there is sunlight (at times).

longhorn320 · « **Reply #6106 on:** June 30, 2020, 12:11:09 PM »

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 30, 2020, 11:37:15 AM

With 5000+ cases per day, 100 deaths is a 2% death rate. Texas has entered exponential growth, and is tracking towards 7000+ cases per day by 8/1.

On June 1st, Texas COVID hospitalizations were about 1,750. 29 days later and it is over 5,900. Texas was averaging about 20 deaths per day 30 days ago. Now they are averaging about 40 deaths per day.

We know that deaths typically lag infection rates by 20-40 days.

Yes, there is more testing, but I've taken that into account.

Texas (and about 15 other states) really need to take this serious.

your 2% death rate is based on early data

I think todays death rate is between .5% and 1%

no way theres a 40 day lag time its closer to 18 days

FearlessF · « **Reply #6107 on:** June 30, 2020, 12:19:20 PM »

as testing goes way up, it seems that cases would go up, which would also add some deaths, but not at the same rate

which would seem to lower the death rate percentage, even though there are more deaths

Cincydawg · « **Reply #6108 on:** June 30, 2020, 12:21:59 PM »

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all?fbclid=IwAR2Qe-pzeJjTOmFLqyGvsFQm-KN6X_JStzUdXtwU0TcHipFk594GktGgnRw

“Clearly there is a much higher risk in enclosed spaces than outside,” Althaus says. Researchers in China studying the spread of the coronavirus outside Hubei province—ground zero for the pandemic—identified 318 clusters of three or more cases between 4 January and 11 February, only one of which originated outdoors. A study in Japan found that the risk of infection indoors is almost 19 times higher than outdoors. (Japan, which was hit early but has kept the epidemic under control, has built its COVID-19 strategy explicitly around avoiding clusters, advising citizens to avoid closed spaces and crowded conditions.)

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #6109 on:** June 30, 2020, 12:23:12 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on June 30, 2020, 12:00:55 PM

is there a big difference in outdoor or indoor dining?
does an entire room get infected because HVAC doesn't refresh the air as the breeze outside?

Yes, massive

longhorn320 · « **Reply #6110 on:** June 30, 2020, 12:30:01 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 12:21:59 PM

(Japan, which was hit early but has kept the epidemic under control, has built its COVID-19 strategy explicitly around avoiding clusters, advising citizens to avoid closed spaces and crowded conditions.)

Hard to do in a city like Tokyo

mass transit alone is a huge challenge

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #6111 on:** June 30, 2020, 12:30:09 PM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 12:11:09 PM

your 2% death rate is based on early data

I think todays death rate is between .5% and 1%

no way theres a 40 day lag time its closer to 18 days

Gotta keep terms straight. Case fatality rate vs infection fatality rate. The latter includes asymptomatic and unconfirmed cases.

We can only really work with the case fatality rate, because we don't have a known ability to bring out infection fatality rate. If someone isn't tested, we never knew they had it, so we can't estimate the denominator of the equation.

Nationally, let's look at the last month. On June 29 we had 2,681,811 cases. On May 29 we had 1,809,967 cases. On June 29 we had 128,783 deaths. On May 29 we had 106,541 deaths. 22,242 added deaths against 871,844 new cases. Which means that in that month, the case fatality rate was 2.5%. It will probably rise (some of those 871,844 will die, but haven't died YET), but that's the known rate in the last month.

In Texas, the difference between June 29 and May 29 was 97,000 cases. The difference on those dates was 783 added deaths. So Texas' known case fatality rate over the past month has only been 0.8%. As mentioned that's probably a bit low, because some of those 97,000 confirmed cases will die, but haven't YET.

Why is Texas' CFR lower than nationally? I have no clue, but it is.

But based on these numbers, 5,000 new cases daily in Texas should correspond to about 40 deaths/day. The 7-day moving average for daily deaths on May 29 was 20/day, and by June 29 it has risen to 32 deaths/day.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #6112 on:** June 30, 2020, 12:32:02 PM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 12:30:01 PM

Hard to do in a city like Tokyo

mass transit alone is a huge challenge

I infer that wearing masks must be effective.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #6113 on:** June 30, 2020, 12:41:37 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 30, 2020, 12:30:09 PM

But based on these numbers, 5,000 new cases daily in Texas should correspond to about 40 deaths/day. The 7-day moving average for daily deaths on May 29 was 20/day, and by June 29 it has risen to 32 deaths/day.

I dont disagree with that analysis

I never said we wouldnt experience increased deaths

just that the amount of increase would not be proportionate to the increase in cases

I think a 50,000 national number will translate to less then 400 deaths

I still have hope that we will be able to get that 50,000 number back to 20,000 once these new orders take affect

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #6114 on:** June 30, 2020, 12:54:47 PM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 12:41:37 PM

I dont disagree with that analysis

I never said we wouldnt experience increased deaths

just that the amount of increase would not be proportionate to the increase in cases

I think a 50,000 national number will translate to less then 400 deaths

I still have hope that we will be able to get that 50,000 number back to 20,000 once these new orders take affect

Nationally, the case fatality rate was 2.5% over the past month (as stated that's likely low because some new cases haven't died yet).

50,000 nationally would correspond to a 1250/day death rate. Before the spike, the US had a national average of around 22,000 cases/day, and 2.5% would be 550/day.

If you look at the 7-day moving average nationally, it's been declining but is still above that level at 593 deaths/day. Additionally, the slope of the decline (I gave all the data yesterday) has been flattening. My prediction is that nationally the daily death numbers are going to reverse and go up--not as predominantly as the increase in cases, but will go up from 593/day.

I don't see a lot of evidence that nationally we'll be at 50K cases/day and <400 deaths/day steady-state.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #6115 on:** June 30, 2020, 12:56:48 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 30, 2020, 12:54:47 PM

I don't see a lot of evidence that nationally we'll be at 50K cases/day and <400 deaths/day steady-state.

well thank God you have me to enlighten you

FearlessF · « **Reply #6116 on:** June 30, 2020, 12:57:27 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 30, 2020, 12:21:59 PM

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/why-do-some-covid-19-patients-infect-many-others-whereas-most-don-t-spread-virus-all?fbclid=IwAR2Qe-pzeJjTOmFLqyGvsFQm-KN6X_JStzUdXtwU0TcHipFk594GktGgnRw

“Clearly there is a much higher risk in enclosed spaces than outside,” Althaus says. Researchers in China studying the spread of the coronavirus outside Hubei province—ground zero for the pandemic—identified 318 clusters of three or more cases between 4 January and 11 February, only one of which originated outdoors. A study in Japan found that the risk of infection indoors is almost 19 times higher than outdoors. (Japan, which was hit early but has kept the epidemic under control, has built its COVID-19 strategy explicitly around avoiding clusters, advising citizens to avoid closed spaces and crowded conditions.)

unfortunately, meat packing and nursing homes are a mostly indoors situation

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #6117 on:** June 30, 2020, 01:05:49 PM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 30, 2020, 12:56:48 PM

well thank God you have me to enlighten you

Hey, I hope you're right...

I just wish you could back up your assertions with data or argument beyond "trust me".

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

FearlessF

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Cincydawg

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longhorn320

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Cincydawg

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OrangeAfroMan

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longhorn320

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betarhoalphadelta

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