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I posted over the weekend, I think, about the time lag between cases and deaths, using the early spikes in Mar/Apr to gauge the time lag.

I came up with a time lag of 7-10 days between seeing a spike in cases and the according spike in deaths.

I've since thought about it more and seen some arguments suggesting that I'm incorrect. At the time, because of testing limitations we were only testing people showing significant symptoms, and so I think those people had more fully progressed into later stages of the severe disease, which would mean that the time lag would be shorter than if we'd been testing at first sign of symptoms.

I think now more of the tests are "first sign of symptom" tests, so the lag time will be longer in the data than what we saw in Mar/Apr.

I've read that over 60 percent of test results in Florida over the past two weeks were asymptomatic. Kiddies got tested because they knew they had contact.

I'll try to remember where I saw this, and I'll post it.

Regardless, it's true that the spike is the kiddies. That may indicate that there will not be a death spike.

You did.

Im convinced that the spiking started far enough back that if we were going to see a big change in deaths we would have by now

there might be a state sometime with a temp increase in deaths but that will be specific like with a meat packing plant, nursing home etc

we need to get used to the fact that 50,000 positive cases a day does not mean death

if you have an avg of 50,000 people a day testing positive with no increase in deaths that may be a good thing

it may be the only way we get out from under this shit

positive case increase will not translate into a proportionate death increase because.......

more testing

the young make up the vast majority of current positive cases

new treatment developments

With 5000+ cases per day, 100 deaths is a 2% death rate.  Texas has entered exponential growth, and is tracking towards 7000+ cases per day by 8/1.

On June 1st, Texas COVID hospitalizations were about 1,750.  29 days later and it is over 5,900.  Texas was averaging about 20 deaths per day 30 days ago.  Now they are averaging about 40 deaths per day.

We know that deaths typically lag infection rates by 20-40 days.

Yes, there is more testing, but I've taken that into account.

Texas (and about 15 other states) really need to take this serious.

I posted over the weekend, I think, about the time lag between cases and deaths, using the early spikes in Mar/Apr to gauge the time lag.

I came up with a time lag of 7-10 days between seeing a spike in cases and the according spike in deaths.

I've since thought about it more and seen some arguments suggesting that I'm incorrect. At the time, because of testing limitations we were only testing people showing significant symptoms, and so I think those people had more fully progressed into later stages of the severe disease, which would mean that the time lag would be shorter than if we'd been testing at first sign of symptoms.

I think now more of the tests are "first sign of symptom" tests, so the lag time will be longer in the data than what we saw in Mar/Apr.

I agree with this assessment.

I also agree that younger people are driving a lot of this resurgence, and that should lower the death rate.

I do not have any faith that we have the will or the fortitude to social distance to the level needed to eliminate COVID.  If a vaccine cannot be developed, this is probably how things will go from here.

I've read that over 60 percent of test results in Florida over the past two weeks were asymptomatic. Kiddies got tested because they knew they had contact.

I'll try to remember where I saw this, and I'll post it.

Regardless, it's true that the spike is the kiddies. That may indicate that there will not be a death spike.

Yes, a big part of this is that we're actively contact tracing, which is why we're not only getting a much lower positive rate (we're testing people w/o symptoms because we know they were near someone who has it but they're negative), and also why we're getting a lot more asymptomatic positives... Essentially people who would NOT normally get tested are doing so.

This is much different than late March / early April when we were basically only testing symptomatic people, and telling mildly symptomatic people to ride it out unless the symptoms worsened.

So clearly the profile of testing has changed. 

That said, I don't think the spikes are false... I think we are seeing increased spread. It may be starting with the kiddies, but it will radiate outwards because it's so contagious.

Protests.    Also outdoor and indoor bars

folks at protests and bars are wearing masks?