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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
(Read 771240 times)

longhorn320 · « **Reply #5978 on:** June 27, 2020, 07:33:03 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 27, 2020, 07:16:40 PM

A couple of states are showing concerning blips if you squint hard enough, but not enough that I'm certain of anything. It's not enough that I can't just call it noise.

I say give it until this time next week. If there are meaningful trends occurring in deaths in the bad states for cases (FL/TX/OK/AZ/CA), those states should start showing it by July 4.

sounds logical to me

again if deaths fail to trend up like new cases this may be a good thing

herd immunity may be possible

Hawkinole · « **Reply #5979 on:** June 28, 2020, 12:20:22 AM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 27, 2020, 07:33:03 PM

sounds logical to me

again if deaths fail to trend up like new cases this may be a good thing

herd immunity may be possible

I suspect deaths will rise more slowly in these 4-states simply because the younger people seem to be involved now. In time they will spread it to older people in nursing homes, as some of them catching it will work in nursing homes and go to work asymptomatically, and then increased death rates will start spiking. It is troubling that there is such high ICU occupancy in Houston, so perhaps things will spike very soon. Hope not.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #5980 on:** June 28, 2020, 07:42:07 AM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 27, 2020, 07:33:03 PM

sounds logical to me

again if deaths fail to trend up like new cases this may be a good thing

herd immunity may be possible

Herd immunity wouldn't be achieved whether deaths go up or stay flat, it's an independent variable hinging on how many get infected and develop antibodies.

Deaths might slightly work counter to HI.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #5981 on:** June 28, 2020, 08:02:16 AM »

I expect more governors to begin backing this thing up, and I suspect it's way too late to matter. I can't figure what could be shut down that would help much. You can mandate masks, fine, but what if folks ignore the mandate?

It almost becomes a "mark of resistance" to "Da Man" to ignore it. I'm a tough guy, no guvmint gonna tell me what tew dew.

Nearly 2,000 new cases reported in GA yesterday. This is more than a spike. I had planned to take the wife out to brunch today, I may hold off on that choice. It's not worth it. We can walk in the park and be relatively safe.

Fortunately, Atlanta city proper still has relatively fewer cases than the hot spots in Gwinett etc.

Honestbuckeye · « **Reply #5982 on:** June 28, 2020, 10:37:26 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 28, 2020, 08:02:16 AM

I expect more governors to begin backing this thing up, and I suspect it's way too late to matter. I can't figure what could be shut down that would help much. You can mandate masks, fine, but what if folks ignore the mandate?

It almost becomes a "mark of resistance" to "Da Man" to ignore it. I'm a tough guy, no guvmint gonna tell me what tew dew.

Nearly 2,000 new cases reported in GA yesterday. This is more than a spike. I had planned to take the wife out to brunch today, I may hold off on that choice. It's not worth it. We can walk in the park and be relatively safe.

Fortunately, Atlanta city proper still has relatively fewer cases than the hot spots in Gwinett etc.

I think we are making a lot of assumptions about masks, who is wearing them, who is not, who is getting infected, who is not.

no doubt masks help slow the spread, but again, now that I am seeing people I know getting it, I am telling you they are mask wearers and protesters.

it is the younger crowd that is driving this.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #5983 on:** June 28, 2020, 12:13:38 PM »

Wearing a mask does little to prevent you from getting it. I've seen estimates of 5%.

An infected person who wears a mask can cut transmission by 30% (est.)

And yes, we are making a lot of assumptions because the data often are not available.

Entropy · « **Reply #5984 on:** June 28, 2020, 12:15:21 PM »

isn't there data on countries where masks are socially acceptable vs others?

Cincydawg · « **Reply #5985 on:** June 28, 2020, 12:16:34 PM »

Quote from: Entropy on June 28, 2020, 12:15:21 PM

isn't there data on countries where masks are socially acceptable vs others?

Yup, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, all doing remarkably well for heavily populated countries.

R naught, cut it below one and you have it.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #5986 on:** June 28, 2020, 04:22:24 PM »

Buy-in.

The great thing about the U.S. is our freedom and our attitude to expect it.
The bad thing about the U.S. in a pandemic is our freedom and our attitude to expect it.

This isn't a time to cite our rights, it's a time to think of others.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #5987 on:** June 28, 2020, 04:34:50 PM »

The exponential increase in cases, whether they immediately become deaths isn't the point, really. An increase in cases begets further increases in cases, and at some point, among all of this increase, it hits a bubble of at-risk areas, causing the deaths to jump.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #5988 on:** June 28, 2020, 04:48:55 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 28, 2020, 04:34:50 PM

The exponential increase in cases, whether they immediately become deaths isn't the point, really. An increase in cases begets further increases in cases, and at some point, among all of this increase, it hits a bubble of at-risk areas, causing the deaths to jump.

so far that hasnt happened

we need to get positive cases down that for sure but so far the excess in positive cases has not translated into a large increase in deaths

the next few weeks will be interesting

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #5989 on:** June 28, 2020, 04:57:59 PM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 28, 2020, 04:48:55 PM

so far that hasnt happened

we need to get positive cases down that for sure but so far the excess in positive cases has not translated into a large increase in deaths

...yet.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #5990 on:** June 28, 2020, 05:01:15 PM »

Getting tested tomorrow at CVS.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #5991 on:** June 28, 2020, 05:02:34 PM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 28, 2020, 05:01:15 PM

Getting tested tomorrow at CVS.

whats the occasion

are you feeling ok

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

longhorn320

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

Hawkinole

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Cincydawg

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

Cincydawg

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Honestbuckeye

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Cincydawg

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Entropy

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Cincydawg

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OrangeAfroMan

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OrangeAfroMan

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longhorn320

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

OrangeAfroMan

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

847badgerfan

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

longhorn320

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas