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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
(Read 771180 times)

Cincydawg · « **Reply #5208 on:** June 10, 2020, 07:13:34 PM »

Well, a rep panel study to me would be something randomly drawn from every demographic, not just one.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #5209 on:** June 10, 2020, 08:22:12 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 10, 2020, 07:13:34 PM

Well, a rep panel study to me would be something randomly drawn from every demographic, not just one.

I understand but my point is that they are initiating the testing instead of the patient

longhorn320 · « **Reply #5210 on:** June 10, 2020, 08:24:12 PM »

Virus deaths in the US has now decreased for 7 weeks in a row

CWSooner · « **Reply #5211 on:** June 10, 2020, 10:41:49 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 10, 2020, 05:35:08 PM

Father in law had to get tested last week for hand surgery--negative as well.

He's one of the ones we worry about getting it, since he has Szogren's Syndrome, an autoimmune disorder. That and being 65 would put him in higher risk group, although he's otherwise very healthy.

My esposita has Sjögren syndrome as well. And lupus. If there's an allergy or autoimmune disorder to be had, she's got it.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #5212 on:** June 11, 2020, 06:28:03 AM »

Stock market futures are down pretty far right now on fears of a second wave, or so it is said.

It could also be profit taking. My investments are up for the year now, on paper.

Honestbuckeye · « **Reply #5213 on:** June 11, 2020, 07:20:33 AM »

Opening early apparently has caused an alarming spike up.

The protests have had no impact though. Lol. That’s what I learned from my morning reading.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #5214 on:** June 11, 2020, 07:30:27 AM »

It's impossible to deconvolute the two things without a lot more information. The protesters were mostly young, less likely to have bad symptoms. The bad news is they might not have isolated soon enough to prevent further spread. If one person in a protest infected 5 and they all return the next night, you get a geometric progression which would be very bad.

Georgia doesn't get mentioned any more, you will notice, even though the state "reopened" soonest. There were protests here of course, a lot of them. The hot spots here are mostly rural counties where a single event could cause a spike per capita. If Atlanta sees a spike, I'd say the protests are implicated.

Honestbuckeye · « **Reply #5215 on:** June 11, 2020, 07:35:39 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 07:30:27 AM

It's impossible to deconvolute the two things without a lot more information. The protesters were mostly young, less likely to have bad symptoms. The bad news is they might not have isolated soon enough to prevent further spread. If one person in a protest infected 5 and they all return the next night, you get a geometric progression which would be very bad.

Georgia doesn't get mentioned any more, you will notice, even though the state "reopened" soonest. There were protests here of course, a lot of them. The hot spots here are mostly rural counties where a single event could cause a spike per capita. If Atlanta sees a spike, I'd say the protests are implicated.

I just read MULTIPLE articles calling out Georgia for their spike up- and 100% attributing to opening early. Not just Georgia

also- please help me understand this “ it’s ok for young people to protest “ concept. For 2 months I was bombarded with how selfish young people are for not isolating, going to the beach, etc.
I can’t accept opposites like that despite the fact they are both coming from the same sources.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #5216 on:** June 11, 2020, 07:42:52 AM »

I don't see a spike up in Georgia. At all. I saw articles PREDICTING it.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/

There has been an upward trend over the past week or so, but it is rather slight.

Where is an article calling this a spike?

I just read a CNN article on line about this, a longish article, zero mention of GA.

utee94 · « **Reply #5217 on:** June 11, 2020, 08:41:43 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 07:42:52 AM

I don't see a spike up in Georgia. At all. I saw articles PREDICTING it.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/

There has been an upward trend over the past week or so, but it is rather slight.

Where is an article calling this a spike?

I just read a CNN article on line about this, a longish article, zero mention of GA.

Yeah, that steadily decreasing hospitalization data is a really positive trend in Georgia. I'm happy to see that.

In Texas ours has been increasing, largely driven by the Houston metro.

But yesterday, we saw a pretty big increase here in Austin. Hospitalizations, which had actually been decreasing for the previous week from 97 on 6/2 to 91 on 6/9, jumped up from 91 to 104 yesterday. There's still plenty of room in the hospitals and ICUs in the metro area, but that's the largest single-day jump we've seen since the early weeks of this thing. Definitely worthy of keeping an eye on it, and hopefully it's just a brief spike and not a trend.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #5218 on:** June 11, 2020, 09:58:49 AM »

I'm also trying to understand why "spike" and "fears of a second wave" are showing up all over my news feed, when I look at the numbers and I don't see squat.

Nationally, daily new cases are flat to slightly down. Daily deaths are continuing their downward trend after a 1-week pause about a week ago.

I looked at the curves of the top ~10 states or so to see if maybe we were seeing a spike somewhere. Big hot spots like NY/NJ are not showing anything like a spike. California and Texas keep seeing their daily new case rates go up (but daily deaths are flat), but nothing I'd really call a spike. Texas would at least be close to calling it a spike, but given that new cases were rising anyway, I'm not sure I'd call it that. The only state that I'd say is experiencing a spike right now is Florida. Their daily case rate was about 750/day for several weeks in a row, and in just the last week it's spiked to over 1200... But then their death rate has remained flat, so there could be other explanations (increased testing?)...

So I don't see a spike, but it's popping up in the news today... Why?

utee94 · « **Reply #5219 on:** June 11, 2020, 10:02:04 AM »

EYEBALLS AND CLICKS! That's why.

That we're now over 3 months into this and the MSM are still using absolute cases as a measure of trends, tells me all I need to know about their analytical capabilities.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #5220 on:** June 11, 2020, 10:26:21 AM »

Yeah, it's dramatic, and probably can be blamed on some folks. Balanced reporting would note the cases are increasing in some states and holding even in others and decreasing in others. The states hit hardest earlier are doing better now, and vice versa, states that saw few early infections now are seeing them.

Area under the curve matters as well as any peak.

If five states opened "early", and three are trending up, if you only mention t hose three you are lying in my book. But reality is more subtle and readers like decisive stuff that comports with what they want to believe.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #5221 on:** June 11, 2020, 10:53:39 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 11, 2020, 10:26:21 AM

Yeah, it's dramatic, and probably can be blamed on some folks. Balanced reporting would note the cases are increasing in some states and holding even in others and decreasing in others. The states hit hardest earlier are doing better now, and vice versa, states that saw few early infections now are seeing them.

Area under the curve matters as well as any peak.

If five states opened "early", and three are trending up, if you only mention t hose three you are lying in my book. But reality is more subtle and readers like decisive stuff that comports with what they want to believe.

This CNN article did just that. It talked about states opening early and cited Texas and Florida as rapidly rising cases, but didn't mention Georgia.

@longhorn320 would be happy to know, though, that the paragraph immediately following that talked about a potential spike due to the protests that could show up in the numbers in the coming weeks.

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

Cincydawg

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

longhorn320

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

longhorn320

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

CWSooner

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Cincydawg

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Honestbuckeye

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Cincydawg

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

Honestbuckeye

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Cincydawg

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utee94

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betarhoalphadelta

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

utee94

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Cincydawg

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

betarhoalphadelta

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas