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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5194 on: June 10, 2020, 11:35:13 AM »
Travis County (Austin metro area) hospitalizations are actually down slightly week over week.  Dallas is steady as well.  We're seeing increases in hospitalizations in Houston, though, which is what's driving the state's totals up.

I really am curious as to what's driving the differences across the state. But the overall numbers are still low enough that just one Old Folks' Home getting exposed, could drive a large % increase.

FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5195 on: June 10, 2020, 11:56:56 AM »
It's H-Town

nuff said
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5196 on: June 10, 2020, 12:35:58 PM »
we have had a slight increase in hospitalizations in the last 5 days

right now Im not too alarmed as our max capacity hospital beds is no where close to being reached

my personal theory is that this is due to both opening up and the protests we should be on the down trend again in 1 to 2 weeks unless of course more protests follow

They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5197 on: June 10, 2020, 01:09:41 PM »
Just  my speculation, I think we're seeing a general slight upward trend from reopening, a mild spike from Memorial Day Weekend activity, and now perhaps a secondary rise from the protests and riots.  It's going to be really difficult to untangle all of that, and perhaps it's not even really necessary.  As stated, the key metric is hospital/ICU capacity.

But I'm still interested in what's unique about Houston compared to Austin/Dallas/San Antonio when it comes to the recent hospitalization increases.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5198 on: June 10, 2020, 01:16:44 PM »
Georgia has hot spots, rural counties in the main.  I think a few random events can generate a hot spot especially in low population counties, which Houston is not.  But, as noted, perhaps a few nursing homes there broke down.  NYC was crazy hot for a while.  There is debate about why.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5199 on: June 10, 2020, 01:20:20 PM »
my personal theory is that this is due to both opening up and the protests we should be on the down trend again in 1 to 2 weeks unless of course more protests follow
I'm with you, up to the thought that we'll be back on a downtrend after 1 to 2 weeks.

If we see a spike from the protests, it might decline from that spike, but I think the case levels will continue to increase in conjunction with just how much "reopening" is occurring and how complacent individuals are about continuing to physical distance and take basic precautions [like masks]. 

I think that's been the problem here in California all along... While I think we did a great job initially, I suspect that a de facto reopening was occurring far in advance of the state actually allowing it, by people being complacent and finding ways around the restrictions. I know for a fact that there were underground hair/nail salons, people working out of their homes for these services, etc. Our numbers started great, but then they grew, and grew, and grew. Never a spike, but just slow growth. 

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5200 on: June 10, 2020, 01:35:46 PM »
Just  my speculation, I think we're seeing a general slight upward trend from reopening, a mild spike from Memorial Day Weekend activity, and now perhaps a secondary rise from the protests and riots.  It's going to be really difficult to untangle all of that, and perhaps it's not even really necessary.  As stated, the key metric is hospital/ICU capacity.

But I'm still interested in what's unique about Houston compared to Austin/Dallas/San Antonio when it comes to the recent hospitalization increases.
If you look at testing Harris county has had over 200,000 tests while Dallas county has had only 117,000 tests

this might account for the case difference
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5201 on: June 10, 2020, 03:00:14 PM »
I guess there are some worrying signs out of Texas
and what would thay be
It's full of Texans?  

I can't talk, I was born there.  
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5202 on: June 10, 2020, 03:28:23 PM »
If you look at testing Harris county has had over 200,000 tests while Dallas county has had only 117,000 tests

this might account for the case difference
No, I haven't bothered looking at testing or cases as a metric in months.

Hospitalizations, ICU usage, ventilator usage, and deaths are really the only meaningful metrics to use for tracking trends.  With the understanding of course that each of those lags the preceding one for obvious reasons.  And I'm also not really commenting on the absolute numbers, but instead the deltas-- the %increase DoD or WoW or MoM.

For some reason Houston is trending up more than the other metro areas in Texas, in hospitalizations specifically.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5203 on: June 10, 2020, 03:30:51 PM »
Testing now can be both a leading and trailing indicator.  If folks are feeling symptoms, they will be more likely to seek testing.  So, more infected could mean more testing.

And more testing of course could reveal more infected, if you're testing the rep sample.  I'd love to see a break down of who is being tested.

CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5204 on: June 10, 2020, 05:10:52 PM »
My wife had to get tested because she had to have surgery for a breast biopsy.  So there's an oh for one.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5205 on: June 10, 2020, 05:35:08 PM »
Father in law had to get tested last week for hand surgery--negative as well.

He's one of the ones we worry about getting it, since he has Szogren's Syndrome, an autoimmune disorder. That and being 65 would put him in higher risk group, although he's otherwise very healthy.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5206 on: June 10, 2020, 06:01:35 PM »
I'm sure many who thinks they have symptoms, and many who just start feeling bad, even GI disorder, gets tested.

I don't know of any study that has tested a rep panel of the pop.

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5207 on: June 10, 2020, 07:07:53 PM »
I'm sure many who thinks they have symptoms, and many who just start feeling bad, even GI disorder, gets tested.

I don't know of any study that has tested a rep panel of the pop.
they are doing that in nursing homes
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

 

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