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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5138 on: June 09, 2020, 10:58:56 AM »
right neither is Georgia but NY Texas and California is
California isn't showing a spike. Daily new cases are increasing, but that's a trend that's been going on for weeks and doesn't show any clear inflection point in the trendline in the last week that could be attributed to protests.

Texas is showing a spike, but how big you label the "spike" depends largely on whether you measure from the previous peak (mid-May with a 7 day ma of over 1200 cases/day) or whether you measure from the previous local minimum (late-May w/ 7 day ma of around 1000 cases/day). That said, the 7 day ma of cases climbed to over 1500 in about 10-11 days. Given how big of a state Texas is, I think you'd want to get more granular on where the case numbers are jumping and whether that correlates to where the biggest protests were, to determine if it's due to reopening or due to protests. 

NY isn't showing a spike at all. Numbers aren't even ticking up. The 7 day ma line is trending down and has been for weeks now. 

My site (worldometers.info) doesn't call out GA specifically with daily graphs yet. The 11Alive piece did say that the downward trend of hospitalizations due to COVID just reversed and ticked upwards for the first time in weeks. But that was a story specifically talking about how protests could cause new cases, so clearly it wasn't attributing the spike to Kemp and reopening. 

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5139 on: June 09, 2020, 10:59:34 AM »
The important metrics are hospital bed/ICU bed/ventilator capacity.  If those aren't being overwhelmed, then we're on the right path.  If the trend is too steep and those facilities do start becoming overwhelmed, then corrective action is warranted.

I'm not sure what that corrective action might be, though.  People in "free states" aren't about to allow themselves to be locked down again.  Perhaps a mandate for masks to be worn indoors at all times in all places might be somewhat effective.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5140 on: June 09, 2020, 11:04:31 AM »
California isn't showing a spike. Daily new cases are increasing, but that's a trend that's been going on for weeks and doesn't show any clear inflection point in the trendline in the last week that could be attributed to protests.

Texas is showing a spike, but how big you label the "spike" depends largely on whether you measure from the previous peak (mid-May with a 7 day ma of over 1200 cases/day) or whether you measure from the previous local minimum (late-May w/ 7 day ma of around 1000 cases/day). That said, the 7 day ma of cases climbed to over 1500 in about 10-11 days. Given how big of a state Texas is, I think you'd want to get more granular on where the case numbers are jumping and whether that correlates to where the biggest protests were, to determine if it's due to reopening or due to protests.

NY isn't showing a spike at all. Numbers aren't even ticking up. The 7 day ma line is trending down and has been for weeks now.

My site (worldometers.info) doesn't call out GA specifically with daily graphs yet. The 11Alive piece did say that the downward trend of hospitalizations due to COVID just reversed and ticked upwards for the first time in weeks. But that was a story specifically talking about how protests could cause new cases, so clearly it wasn't attributing the spike to Kemp and reopening.

Texas is trending upward mostly in the Houston metro over the past 7 days.  Dallas, Austin, San Antonio are relatively flat.  I have no idea whether or not protests were larger/closer/more frequent/fewer masks or whatever, in Houston, compared to what we saw in Austin and Dallas.

Also, this site has daily graphs for all states:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys


« Last Edit: June 09, 2020, 11:12:54 AM by utee94 »

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5141 on: June 09, 2020, 11:50:45 AM »
https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/

Georgia hospitalization rates are trending down, slowly.  There was an increase from 783 to 819 three days ago.  A "tick up" could be the start of a trend, or not.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5142 on: June 09, 2020, 12:03:11 PM »
I'm really starting to believe that far more people have had this thing than I thought earlier.
But so far the limited antibody testing we have hasn't borne that out. Only in NY did we see significant number of positive antibody tests. In Santa Clara county, which SHOULD have been a hot spot due to heavy international travel to/from Asia in general and China in particular, heavy Chinese population, etc. Yet the numbers were never high.

I don't know why we're not hearing more about the antibody numbers... 

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5143 on: June 09, 2020, 12:05:28 PM »
But so far the limited antibody testing we have hasn't borne that out. Only in NY did we see significant number of positive antibody tests. In Santa Clara county, which SHOULD have been a hot spot due to heavy international travel to/from Asia in general and China in particular, heavy Chinese population, etc. Yet the numbers were never high.

I don't know why we're not hearing more about the antibody numbers...
This.
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5144 on: June 09, 2020, 12:11:31 PM »
dont they have some problems with antibody testing that have not been solved yet like a lot of false results
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5145 on: June 09, 2020, 12:15:07 PM »
dont they have some problems with antibody testing that have not been solved yet like a lot of false results
My understanding is not that the tests are bad, but that the prevalence of infection is so low. The very low false positive rates is still too high to be predictive when you have such a low incidence rate.

This is not much of an issue in places like NYC (although people complained about potential selection bias of the study), where the prevalence is much higher. But in Santa Clara where they only measured a 1.5% infection rate with a test that had somewhere between 0.3% and 0.8% false positive rate (95%CI), it's possible that up to half or more of the positive results could be false positives. You simply can't trust those results for any useful purpose.

rolltidefan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5146 on: June 09, 2020, 12:24:30 PM »
alabama is trending up. last week it was a pretty stark trend upwards, this week seems to be leveling out, but still upward.

tuscaloosa, in particular, saw a spike in new cases last week. of the total confirmed cases in tuscaloosa, over 30% were in the last week/week and a half (this was as of 6/5/20). that's fairly alarming...

until you consider the gross numbers. that total was around 750 (it's up to about 850 now). out of 200,000 (pop of tuscaloosa county), 750 had it confirmed. that's less than 1/2 of 1%. so is 850 now. and a significant portion of those cases (~40%) were in nursing homes, county jail and a mental institution, which were all hit within the last 2 weeks. so it's not really getting spread through the general population... yet.

i'm torn on the issue. the gross numbers are still so low it's ridiculous. but the trend is going up and at an alarming rate. where is the intersection in which i should be taking major precautions vs not worrying? i don't know. not to mention how many are going unconfirmed and spreading it. testing is still lacking both from a need and the general populations "want to" for lack of a better term. it's perplexing.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5147 on: June 09, 2020, 12:25:47 PM »
But so far the limited antibody testing we have hasn't borne that out. Only in NY did we see significant number of positive antibody tests. In Santa Clara county, which SHOULD have been a hot spot due to heavy international travel to/from Asia in general and China in particular, heavy Chinese population, etc. Yet the numbers were never high.

I don't know why we're not hearing more about the antibody numbers...
One doc I know from another site, who lives and works in Chicago, is saying there's a growing belief that blood type is a major operator.  Not only are they seeing fewer Type O cases that get bad, at this point they're almost not seeing any type O at all.  He and his healthcare group are now speculating that a large chunk of Type O people already basically have immunity to it.  

This is not a peer-reviewed study or anything like that, just his observations combined with the observations of hundreds of docs that are all in his same group.

IF the above is true, it might explain the lack of antibodies in various groups.  Type O is the most common blood type in the US, it's possible that a percentage of people with Type O blood have been exposed to it, but already had immunity with no need for antibodies ever to be produced since the virus wasn't able to penetrate the cells in the first place.

Here's one article on it:

https://blog.23andme.com/23andme-research/23andme-finds-evidence-that-blood-type-plays-a-role-in-covid-19/

And here's a little bit about the mechanism that could be responsible for this phenomenon:

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200603/Blood-group-type-may-affect-susceptibility-to-COVID-19-respiratory-failure.aspx


utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5148 on: June 09, 2020, 12:30:29 PM »
And just for the record, I am blood type O- so it looks like I am superior to those of you with A,B, or AB.  Suck it, losers.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5149 on: June 09, 2020, 12:37:38 PM »
I'm type O as well.
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5150 on: June 09, 2020, 12:38:24 PM »
I'm type O as well.
Nice.  We will rule over the inferior blood types with an iron fist.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #5151 on: June 09, 2020, 12:50:54 PM »
Nice.  We will rule over the inferior blood types with an iron fist.
I thought we already did?
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