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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
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Cincydawg · « **Reply #4788 on:** June 04, 2020, 08:06:52 AM »

[img width=499.988 height=280.995]https://i.imgur.com/bbXHC63.png[/img]

This trend has continued slight lower since 5/19. Georgia was allowed to reopen partially on 23 April. Just being allowed to reopen does not inherently mean more cases of the virus, but of course you can cherry pick a state to show otherwise.

There was quite a bit of controversy when GA reopened and predictions of disaster. It has not happened, for whatever reason. Unfortunately, I think the protests will drive this the other direction in a week or so.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/

847badgerfan · « **Reply #4789 on:** June 04, 2020, 08:34:26 AM »

I expect a spike here too, with the "protests" in Miami, Tampa and Jacksonburgh.

Percent positive for the state is 5.4. Last week came in at 4.04.

But, my zip code has been at 8 cases for about two weeks now, which is good. No deaths, which is even better. In the adjacent zip code, which is where we do our shopping and such, there are 37 cases, which has held for about a week now.

There are zero cases in my neighborhood.

This is all good news, to me, except the first part of my post.

utee94 · « **Reply #4790 on:** June 04, 2020, 09:01:13 AM »

I'm not sure we're going to see a spike from the protests. We didn't see any real spike from the Spring Break beach partiers in Florida and Texas. I'm not sure this virus is readily transmitted in the broad outdoors with only fleeting proximity between the same people for any period of time.

Now, standing directly next to someone who is actively infected, in a football stadium, packed shoulder to shoulder, could very well be a different story.

Anyway, I guess we'll see in a couple of weeks. I certainly have no desire to be that close to anyone right now, so I don't think I'd "practice what I preach" at this point.

It's just a hypothesis anyway.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #4791 on:** June 04, 2020, 09:05:41 AM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 04, 2020, 06:06:41 AM

AZ opened back up in the middle of May. And now it's worse than anytime before. 900+ new cases TODAY, and 40 deaths. Who could have predicted such a thing!?!

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 06:52:27 AM

Georgia remains flat on every metric, perhaps a very slight down trend on hospitalizations.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/jvoLBozRtBSVSNQDDAuZxH/

I notice a lot of folks on SM cherry pick data to support whatever they want to believe in the first place, and then claim X is more important than Y, when they would claim the reverse if it comported with their world view.

I do expect a detectable upsurge due to protests in a week or so. Even ten people in a thousand infected would be spreading this thing which would then spread further the next day ...

I think there are a lot of potential explanations for something like this.

As Cincy has pointed out many times, Georgia "reopened" but based on traffic patterns, restaurant activity, and actual daily behavior, people weren't behaving like everything was normal. His experience might be unique to Atlanta--perhaps things were different in the rest of the state. But at least based upon his experience, people were still taking the virus seriously despite the state being "open".

I don't have boots on the ground in Arizona to know whether people in Arizona were taking precautions after the state reopened or if they went back to their lives as if everything was normal. Like many people, I do have biases about the stereotypical person in Arizona, and there's a part of me that suspects an attitude of "F it, I'm not wearing no goddamn mask" and likely a return to "normal" pre-virus behavior. Were people going to bars and nightclubs and basically ignoring distancing? In Arizona... It wouldn't surprise me.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #4792 on:** June 04, 2020, 10:03:00 AM »

Quote from: utee94 on June 04, 2020, 09:01:13 AM

I'm not sure we're going to see a spike from the protests. We didn't see any real spike from the Spring Break beach partiers in Florida and Texas. I'm not sure this virus is readily transmitted in the broad outdoors with only fleeting proximity between the same people for any period of time.

Now, standing directly next to someone who is actively infected, in a football stadium, packed shoulder to shoulder, could very well be a different story.

Anyway, I guess we'll see in a couple of weeks. I certainly have no desire to be that close to anyone right now, so I don't think I'd "practice what I preach" at this point. It's just a hypothesis anyway.

No, because the ass clowns brought the shit back home to the Midwest and NE.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #4793 on:** June 04, 2020, 10:04:53 AM »

I know people in AZ, and they are all still practicing distancing and wearing masks.

I want demographics, just as I wanted demographics when Alabama came up a while back. Demographics matter.

utee94 · « **Reply #4794 on:** June 04, 2020, 10:07:47 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on June 04, 2020, 10:03:00 AM

No, because the ass clowns brought the shit back home to the Midwest and NE.

Eh, lots of those folks stayed in those states, and they certainly interacted with the bartenders, servers, cab drivers, Uber drivers, hotel staff, and all sorts of other people that are local.

And in Texas at least, a huge portion of the beachgoers are local to the state, in any given year, anyway.

All that, and still no spikes.

The NE on the other hand was completely screwed all on its own, for various reasons we've discussed ad infinitum.

Entropy · « **Reply #4795 on:** June 04, 2020, 10:21:03 AM »

https://www.kctv5.com/coronavirus/no-new-covid19-cases-connected-to-memorial-day-weekend-crowds-at-lake-of-the/article_fb9189b6-1cca-5717-a131-e0a951e5cc56.html

appears the celebrations at the lake of the ozarks has not resulted in increased volume of COVID cases...

CWSooner · « **Reply #4796 on:** June 04, 2020, 10:44:44 AM »

As of Wednesday night, 1,851,520 cases of COVID-19 have been reported in the United States (an increase of 19,699 from yesterday) and 107,175 deaths have been attributed to the virus (an increase of 995 from yesterday), according to the Johns Hopkins University COVID-19 Dashboard, leading to a mortality rate among confirmed cases of 5.8 percent (the true mortality rate is likely much lower, between 0.4 percent and 1.4 percent, but it’s impossible to determine precisely due to incomplete testing regimens). Of 18,214,950 coronavirus tests conducted in the United States (457,112 conducted since yesterday), 10.2 percent have come back positive.

. . .
Months after diverging from much of the rest of the world and instituting relatively loose COVID-19 lockdown measures, Sweden’s per capita coronavirus death rate is now the highest in the world, and is a full five to 10 times higher than its Scandinavian neighbors Norway, Denmark, and Finland. In an interview with Swedish radio, Anders Tegnell, the epidemiologist behind Sweden’s controversial approach, said he would take a different approach if he had to do it again.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #4797 on:** June 04, 2020, 11:07:43 AM »

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

The site still has Sweden behind Belgium, Spain, Italy, and UK and deaths per capita.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #4798 on:** June 04, 2020, 11:32:45 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 04, 2020, 11:07:43 AM

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

The site still has Sweden behind Belgium, Spain, Italy, and UK and deaths per capita.

Yeah, Sweden's daily death rate per capita is currently higher than those countries, but overall death rate is lower.

The point they're trying to make is that the other countries, while their outbreaks were worse several weeks ago, are now controlling the situation much better and have it in hand. While Sweden may not have been quite as bad at the beginning, but their numbers aren't declining at all and they'll overtake these other nations in per capita death rate overall if nothing is done.

utee94 · « **Reply #4799 on:** June 04, 2020, 12:03:17 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 04, 2020, 11:32:45 AM

Yeah, Sweden's daily death rate per capita is currently higher than those countries, but overall death rate is lower.

The point they're trying to make is that the other countries, while their outbreaks were worse several weeks ago, are now controlling the situation much better and have it in hand. While Sweden may not have been quite as bad at the beginning, but their numbers aren't declining at all and they'll overtake these other nations in per capita death rate overall if nothing is done.

And if Sweden was right, those other nations will catch right back up to them when restrictions are lifted. That was their strategy all along. They might or might not be right, but nothing out of the ordinary is happening with respect to their strategy.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #4800 on:** June 04, 2020, 12:32:42 PM »

Quote from: utee94 on June 04, 2020, 12:03:17 PM

And if Sweden was right, those other nations will catch right back up to them when restrictions are lifted. That was their strategy all along. They might or might not be right, but nothing out of the ordinary is happening with respect to their strategy.

They're walking it back a little though: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-03/man-behind-sweden-s-virus-strategy-says-he-got-some-things-wrong

But I agree--we won't know much until we see the effect of these other nations reopening. If they can't continue to keep their numbers low through testing and contact tracing, then the lockdowns were useless.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #4801 on:** June 04, 2020, 12:40:01 PM »

This asshole F'd up a surgery on my Ma (RIP) a few years ago, when he was at NCH (the hospital I support).

And now this.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/covid-19-surgisphere-who-world-health-organization-hydroxychloroquine

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

Cincydawg

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

847badgerfan

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

utee94

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betarhoalphadelta

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847badgerfan

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847badgerfan

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utee94

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Entropy

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CWSooner

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Cincydawg

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betarhoalphadelta

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utee94

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betarhoalphadelta

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847badgerfan

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