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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
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Cincydawg · « **Reply #4690 on:** June 02, 2020, 04:37:52 PM »

Strong evidence for face masks can be seen in the experience in Asia where it is a common practice when in public and rates of COVID are remarkably low, South Korea, Japan, Hong Kong.

CWSooner · « **Reply #4691 on:** June 02, 2020, 04:51:30 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 04:14:11 PM

People were guessing at seasonality based on influenza experiences, but any scientists would have been putting a heavy caveat on such speculation. We simply don't know.

I was telling the wife today that I THINK that if this does snap back, we're going to have to roll with it. Wear masks, wash hands, avoid crowds to the extent possible, and isolate the elderly, and hope for early herd immunity.

She was opining that IF these protests don't result in a detectable upsurge, IF, then perhaps it has run its course.

The wheels have not fallen off in Sweden. The situation there isn't great obviously relative to neighbors, but neither is it catastrophic.

Well, Sweden has 10 times the death rate of Norway.
OTOH, I saw that the prime minister (?) of Norway is now saying that they should have followed Sweden's example.

CWSooner · « **Reply #4692 on:** June 02, 2020, 04:56:40 PM »

Quote from: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 03:33:03 PM

I like it. I feel like it gets my teeth cleaner. But I haven't performed any scientific experiments on it to make that determination, it's possible that it's entirely psychological.

I'd say that if you like your toothbrush and you're happy with its performance and you're getting "good grades" at your regular dental checkups, then there's no reason to change.

I've spent nearly my whole life using a brush. But about a year ago my wife convinced me to go to an electric, an Oral-B. I would not want to go back. Oral-Bs are only in the $30 range, but the replacement brushes are expensive.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #4693 on:** June 02, 2020, 05:12:58 PM »

Quote from: CWSooner on June 02, 2020, 04:56:40 PM

I've spent nearly my whole life using a brush. But about a year ago my wife convinced me to go to an electric, an Oral-B. I would not want to go back. Oral-Bs are only in the $30 range, but the replacement brushes are expensive.

I might have to try it.
I've been lucky, dentally. Plaque builds up quickly, but I've never had a cavity. The electric spinning brush may help keep the plaque at bay.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #4694 on:** June 02, 2020, 05:35:39 PM »

Quote from: CWSooner on June 02, 2020, 04:51:30 PM

Well, Sweden has 10 times the death rate of Norway.
OTOH, I saw that the prime minister (?) of Norway is now saying that they should have followed Sweden's example.

Yeah, and at what cost is one question, and what happens now is another question. As noted, in a year, it might be everyone has the same death rate as Sweden's more or less. The idea was to prevent hospitals from being overrun. That was the fear, the reason for the shutdowns.

Sweden has not experienced that. As yet. I have a friend in Sweden who tells me they are individually taking precautions, it's just not government mandated. We could all be running their experiment in a couple of months, and I suspect we will.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #4695 on:** June 02, 2020, 05:47:19 PM »

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/transmission/

A useful summary of what "we" think we know. Humidity is discussed as a potential factor.

Experiments conducted in a study indicated "a striking correlation of the stability of winter viruses at low RH (20–50%), while the stability of summer or all-year viruses enhanced at higher RH (80%)"

utee94 · « **Reply #4696 on:** June 02, 2020, 06:02:15 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 02, 2020, 05:35:39 PM

Yeah, and at what cost is one question, and what happens now is another question. As noted, in a year, it might be everyone has the same death rate as Sweden's more or less. The idea was to prevent hospitals from being overrun. That was the fear, the reason for the shutdowns.

Sweden has not experienced that. As yet. I have a friend in Sweden who tells me they are individually taking precautions, it's just not government mandated. We could all be running their experiment in a couple of months, and I suspect we will.

Yes, I think that the places that have shut-down, have only stretched out the curve to the right along the t axis. I don't think there's going to end up being much change to the total area under the curve.

EXCEPT-- I do think it bought our docs and scientists some time to develop better treatments, even outside of any potential drugs or cocktails, and that has most likely improved outcomes and resulted in at least some fewer deaths. I don't think it's likely to be statistically significant, but the people who have battled through the worst of the symptoms and survived, probably feel it was worth the effort.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #4697 on:** June 02, 2020, 07:11:38 PM »

Again, *IF* the other Euro nations that have brought down their death rates to very low levels can open up and KEEP their death rates at those levels through testing and contact tracing, then their approach is IMHO superior to Sweden. *IF* they need to basically maintain almost the same levels of lockdown to keep those rates low, then their approach is inferior to Sweden.

utee94 · « **Reply #4698 on:** June 02, 2020, 07:41:08 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on June 02, 2020, 07:11:38 PM

Again, *IF* the other Euro nations that have brought down their death rates to very low levels can open up and KEEP their death rates at those levels through testing and contact tracing, then their approach is IMHO superior to Sweden. *IF* they need to basically maintain almost the same levels of lockdown to keep those rates low, then their approach is inferior to Sweden.

Agree. But that is a lot of IFs there. Time will tell.

My opinion only, is that this is just so infectious, so transmittable, that it's going to penetrate the global populations regardless. In free Western cultures, I don't see us ever being able to lock down tight enough to eradicate it. Which means it's going to linger and at best slow-burn here, and eventually re-penetrate once again into the more authoritarian cultures that might have had a chance to eradicate it on their own, when they ultimately have to reopen to the West, which they must, or suffer the economic consequences.

Once this thing escaped China to the West, it was done.

Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #4699 on:** June 02, 2020, 07:57:44 PM »

Quote from: utee94 on June 02, 2020, 07:41:08 PM

Agree. But that is a lot of IFs there. Time will tell.

My opinion only, is that this is just so infectious, so transmittable, that it's going to penetrate the global populations regardless. In free Western cultures, I don't see us ever being able to lock down tight enough to eradicate it. Which means it's going to linger and at best slow-burn here, and eventually re-penetrate once again into the more authoritarian cultures that might have had a chance to eradicate it on their own, when they ultimately have to reopen to the West, which they must, or suffer the economic consequences.

Once this thing escaped China to the West, it was done.

In all honesty, we are *REALLY* close to eliminating the virus through social distancing in the NE. It would probably take another 4-6 weeks of quarantine, though.

Problem is -- one newly infected guy from Texico comes up it would just come back. So we'd have done the sacrifice without receiving the benefit.

Speaking of which -- Texas going for their all time high today I see.

IL, CA, AZ suck today, too.

utee94 · « **Reply #4700 on:** June 02, 2020, 09:12:37 PM »

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 07:57:44 PM

In all honesty, we are *REALLY* close to eliminating the virus through social distancing in the NE. It would probably take another 4-6 weeks of quarantine, though.

Problem is -- one newly infected guy from Texico comes up it would just come back. So we'd have done the sacrifice without receiving the benefit.

Speaking of which -- Texas going for their all time high today I see.

IL, CA, AZ suck today, too.

Lulz. You're celebrating getting below 10% positive, Texas has been there since mid April. But...

Dream on, dream on, dream on, dream until your dreams come true.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #4701 on:** June 02, 2020, 09:12:48 PM »

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 07:57:44 PM

In all honesty, we are *REALLY* close to eliminating the virus through social distancing in the NE. It would probably take another 4-6 weeks of quarantine, though.

Problem is -- one newly infected guy from Texico comes up it would just come back. So we'd have done the sacrifice without receiving the benefit.

Speaking of which -- Texas going for their all time high today I see.

IL, CA, AZ suck today, too.

You do understand that Texas has 29,000,000 people right?

Even with that there are only 10 states with a lower death to 1M pop ratio

Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #4702 on:** June 02, 2020, 11:16:18 PM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on June 02, 2020, 09:12:48 PM

You do understand that Texas has 29,000,000 people right?

Even with that there are only 10 states with a lower death to 1M pop ratio

I’m looking at the growth rate. I believe Texas will pass PA for active cases tomorrow. if they continue this upward trend, they will double PA active cases in another week or ten days.

Texas is the only state that has “opened up” with numbers trending high enough to be truly concerning.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #4703 on:** June 03, 2020, 12:07:54 AM »

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on June 02, 2020, 11:16:18 PM

I’m looking at the growth rate. I believe Texas will pass PA for active cases tomorrow. if they continue this upward trend, they will double PA active cases in another week or ten days.

Texas is the only state that has “opened up” with numbers trending high enough to be truly concerning.

PA has 14,000,000 people vs Texas 29,000,000

There are only 12 states with a lower cases per 1M pop then Texas

Penn has almost 3 times as many cases per 1M pop as Texas

We have increased out testing and have twice as many tests then PA

you need to worry about stuff that is much more important then how Texas is doing cause Texas is doing just fine

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

Cincydawg

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

CWSooner

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CWSooner

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OrangeAfroMan

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Cincydawg

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Cincydawg

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utee94

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betarhoalphadelta

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utee94

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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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utee94

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longhorn320

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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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longhorn320

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