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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Riffraft

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4424 on: May 29, 2020, 02:18:27 PM »
I think "we" are learning some important things about this disease, finally, that can be trusted as being accurate.  The asymptomatic carriers of the illness are one of the worst aspects of it coupled with it's being deadly for the elderly.


According to the Forbes article, it is deadly to the elderly, but particularly if they are in a nursing home. I was shock to see that at least 42% of the death in this country were people who were in nursing home type facilities. 

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4425 on: May 29, 2020, 02:21:37 PM »
According to the Forbes article, it is deadly to the elderly, but particularly if they are in a nursing home. I was shock to see that at least 42% of the death in this country were people who were in nursing home type facilities.
95% of deaths are from those over the age of 65 or with health conditions.

The death rate for age 65+ is very high.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4426 on: May 29, 2020, 02:25:14 PM »
I do find it strange that news sources are quoting the fact that the actual IFR is well below the "5% or more" as if it's a surprise... Seems to me that's been known since we all started talking about this in March.

Yeah, the phrase, "lower than first thought" seems nonsensical to me.  It's always been a complete unknown, due to lack of testing.  
They should say something like, "this unknown throughout this whole ordeal is on the lowerish end."
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4427 on: May 29, 2020, 02:26:03 PM »
95% of deaths are from those over the age of 65 or with health conditions.

The death rate for age 65+ is very high.
So when it's still going, but we're all acting like it's over and August/Sept rolls around, what's your plan if you're a teacher 65 or older?
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4428 on: May 29, 2020, 02:43:43 PM »
Yeah, the phrase, "lower than first thought" seems nonsensical to me.  It's always been a complete unknown, due to lack of testing. 
They should say something like, "this unknown throughout this whole ordeal is on the lowerish end."
But even at the beginning they were saying that somewhere in the realm of 20% of cases required treatment, 30% were mild, and perhaps around 50% were asymptomatic. 

And due to testing limitations, they were advising people not to even get tested unless they had severe symptoms.

Which means that if you assume maybe at most 25% of cases were being confirmed (the 20% requiring treatment and a small subset of the more mild cases), that'd cut your actual IFR by a factor of 4. Which, when the WHO was saying up front a 3.4% CFR, puts you in the 0.5% to 1% range for IFR. 

I agree it's always been an unknown, but we had at least some bits and pieces of evidence that kinda gave an rough idea of the range.  

Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4429 on: May 29, 2020, 02:44:08 PM »
Sweden’s economy grew in the first quarter yoy. HEY WHO KNEW NOT FORCING EVERYONE TO SHUT DOWN WOULDN’T LEAD TO DESTROYING AN ECONOMY! 

The idiots who run this country should be lethally injected.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4430 on: May 29, 2020, 02:47:20 PM »
I don't think the death rate for 65+ is what I would term "very high", except in a relative sense.  And it may not be much different on the aged than influenza.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-07/comparing-coronavirus-deaths-by-age-with-flu-driving-fatalities

This report is a couple weeks old.


Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4431 on: May 29, 2020, 02:51:24 PM »
The best things about Vegas for us are that rental cars are dirt cheap, even convertibles, and there is some beautiful country not too far to drive.
Want cheap cars? Hertz is bankrupt. They are selling off their fleet as we speak. A company that is over 100+ years old and is one of the bluest chip blue chip American brands.

Wonder who is next. This thing is terrible man. Lot of people are getting wiped out and the dominos are just beginning to fall.

Thanks to the stupid useless politicians.

I am afraid that all this craziness and the mishandling of this pandemic will have done is make most people feel like this was nothing but a bunch of bullshit- and the next time there is a disease that is actually deadly serious and actually very lethal- the public will say nah f you guys you cried wolf last time and we’re not buying it.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4432 on: May 29, 2020, 02:52:50 PM »
Hertz may well come out of bankruptcy "OK".  They can't pay their bills right now.

Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4433 on: May 29, 2020, 03:10:10 PM »
Want cheap cars? Hertz is bankrupt. They are selling off their fleet as we speak. A company that is over 100+ years old and is one of the bluest chip blue chip American brands.

Wonder who is next. This thing is terrible man. Lot of people are getting wiped out and the dominos are just beginning to fall.

Thanks to the stupid useless politicians.

I am afraid that all this craziness and the mishandling of this pandemic will have done is make most people feel like this was nothing but a bunch of bullshit- and the next time there is a disease that is actually deadly serious and actually very lethal- the public will say nah f you guys you cried wolf last time and we’re not buying it.
Somebody told me the other day that if we think that this was no big deal and it was a big overreaction, then we did the right thing.  That's exactly what was supposed to happen with successful intervention.

I bet Italy wishes it was no big deal.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4434 on: May 29, 2020, 03:19:28 PM »
I don't know what "the right thing" would have been, even with hindsight.  I know what some better things might have been.  I know back in early March I knew almost nothing about this disease, it was scary, an strong reaction was likely necessary.  Without that, I couldn't say how many would have died or been very sick.

We do seem to have dodged the worst things that were plausible back then.

Equity markets are recovering some.  The NASDAQ is ahead of where it was Jan. 1.  It will take longer for a lot of family businesses to recover obviously.

I'm spreading around some nice tips, got my hair cut today with the wife's stylist, nice guy, three times the price of Great Clips, but I figured it was safer.


Mdot21

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4435 on: May 29, 2020, 04:03:10 PM »
Somebody told me the other day that if we think that this was no big deal and it was a big overreaction, then we did the right thing.  That's exactly what was supposed to happen with successful intervention.

I bet Italy wishes it was no big deal.
It was a huge over-reaction that destroyed the greatest economy the US has ever had (by the numbers) - and the economic destruction that has been wrought because of the ridiculous mass hysteria and over-reaction and over-reach and abuse of government power is going to be far worse than the actual disease- which is deadly for the most part only to the old and immune-compromised. We're talking about something that is maybe 2x more deadly than the flu- something that only mildly affects 99.9% of the young and healthy. Newsflash: old people and the immune compromised die. It's a part of life. No one lives forever. This thing isn't wiping out the young and the mortality rate according to the CDC is .4%. So basically 2-4x worse than the flu. BFD. Get back to me when a disease has a mortality rate of 4%. Then it's a big deal. The kind of lock-downs that were implemented should've only been put in place for something that kills indiscriminately and has a high morality rate- like Ebola or something- which kills everyone equally and has a mortality rate in the 60%'s - not .4%.

What should've happened was the old and immune-compromised been quarantined and the rest of us go about business as normal for the most part. Maybe limit crowds and capacity, ask people to wear masks and wash their hands. Not shut down the entire world for months and wreck peoples lives.

And once again, Italy had the oldest population in the world- and many of them are smokers. The VAST MAJORITY of deaths were the old and immune-compromised there. It's not like this thing was wiping out the young and killing 60% of those who contracted it.

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4436 on: May 29, 2020, 04:10:17 PM »
It was a huge over-reaction that destroyed the greatest economy the US has ever had (by the numbers) - and the economic destruction that has been wrought because of the ridiculous mass hysteria and over-reaction and over-reach and abuse of government power is going to be far worse than the actual disease- which is deadly for the most part only to the old and immune-compromised. 
we have over 100,000 dead so Im not sure there is an over reaction

we will come out of this and our economy will probably be stronger then before by the end of 2021

did we make mistakes yes we did nursing homes being the big one but we will get over this
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MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4437 on: May 29, 2020, 04:17:29 PM »
Sweden’s economy grew in the first quarter yoy. HEY WHO KNEW NOT FORCING EVERYONE TO SHUT DOWN WOULDN’T LEAD TO DESTROYING AN ECONOMY!

The idiots who run this country should be lethally injected.
And many are passing on bullshit as gospel.Open up the economy can't watch this bullshit where anonymous people  getting  so called "facts" from the swampy morass of the internet.Back in february many prudent and astute individuals preached watch what you read.Because a lot of it will be coming from Russia/China/Korea forging facts and having fun while doing it.Sadly we've turned into a real nation of pussies.Ya there is a strong virus but it's not the plague.So go lock the doors put the masks  and the gloves on grab the bleach and and sanatize the remote that you and only have already touched 100x.Check under the beds and in the closets and your phones for the sensationalized latest.When your done sit down and tune in the riots because that's where this is headed
« Last Edit: May 29, 2020, 04:30:24 PM by MrNubbz »
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