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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Entropy

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4298 on: May 26, 2020, 04:49:40 PM »
I wonder how many construction projects planned in the near term will be cancelled.  There is going to be a lot of office space available.

I also wonder if there will be a migration of people to cheaper towns/cities as businesses allow more remote work.  Why live in SF if I can live in Salt Lake City and still do my job.  Even with a pay cut, ones purchasing power might be better.  Remote work would also expand talent access. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4299 on: May 26, 2020, 04:51:27 PM »
The entertainment sector in general-- movies, travel (especially air travel),  cruise ships, water parks, theme parks.  Even if/when some of those open up, as you suggest, huge portions of the population still won't go.

I'd probably go back to the fancy theater with the reclining chairs and the servers to bring me beers during the movie. The chairs are set in pairs with 5-6 feet between pairs anyway, and I go with my wife, so it's not like I'm in a crowd. The literal *only* time I'd ever see a movie in the normal theater would be if it was a kids movie, and I don't mind forgoing that forever lol ;-)

I actually would return to travel pretty quickly, I think. I've read that the air filtration systems on airplanes actually are better than you'd think--it's not a major cause of spread of infectious diseases. I'd probably use the mask, but travel is one of my favorite things, so I'd be more willing to take risks there than in many other areas.

I don't think I'll ever take a cruise, but that's not because of COVID. And I hate water parks and theme parks, but again, not because of COVID. 

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4300 on: May 26, 2020, 04:53:27 PM »
I wonder how many construction projects planned in the near term will be cancelled.  There is going to be a lot of office space available.

I also wonder if there will be a migration of people to cheaper towns/cities as businesses allow more remote work.  Why live in SF if I can live in Salt Lake City and still do my job.  Even with a pay cut, ones purchasing power might be better.  Remote work would also expand talent access. 
We had 3 sites under contract to design office/retail and they were all cancelled. Looks like they might go apartment/retail now, subject to zoning hearings and all that.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4301 on: May 26, 2020, 04:56:16 PM »
I wonder how many construction projects planned in the near term will be cancelled.  There is going to be a lot of office space available.

I also wonder if there will be a migration of people to cheaper towns/cities as businesses allow more remote work.  Why live in SF if I can live in Salt Lake City and still do my job.  Even with a pay cut, ones purchasing power might be better.  Remote work would also expand talent access. 
I suspect most of the people who choose to live in SF, or in NYC, or in downtown Chicago are choosing to do so for reasons that suggest they'd rather be there and deal with the cost and everything else rather than being in SLC. 

I'm wondering what it's going to do to the single-family home real estate market... Partly because I'd like to buy back in at some point after having to sell the house 4 years ago in the divorce.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4302 on: May 26, 2020, 04:57:53 PM »
I wonder how many construction projects planned in the near term will be cancelled.  There is going to be a lot of office space available.

I also wonder if there will be a migration of people to cheaper towns/cities as businesses allow more remote work.  Why live in SF if I can live in Salt Lake City and still do my job.  Even with a pay cut, ones purchasing power might be better.  Remote work would also expand talent access. 
Maybe, but there's never going to be a substitute for the trust found in face-to-face meetings with your peers and Leadership.  Performance being roughly equal, the remote guy in Salt Lake that I've never met in person, is likely the first one I'm going to fire or lay off, over the rest of the team that's here in the Bay Area with me, that I see at our biweekly staff meeting when we're all in the office together.  Know what I mean?

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4303 on: May 26, 2020, 05:03:53 PM »
I suspect most of the people who choose to live in SF, or in NYC, or in downtown Chicago are choosing to do so for reasons that suggest they'd rather be there and deal with the cost and everything else rather than being in SLC.

I'm wondering what it's going to do to the single-family home real estate market... Partly because I'd like to buy back in at some point after having to sell the house 4 years ago in the divorce.
So far, nothing, except that people just aren't listing right now. There is not a lot on the market in most places, and the prices have not come down.

We haven't seen a new order from Lennar for about a month now.
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4304 on: May 26, 2020, 05:12:36 PM »
So far, nothing, except that people just aren't listing right now. There is not a lot on the market in most places, and the prices have not come down.

We haven't seen a new order from Lennar for about a month now.
Single family home real estate market here is still hot.  People that wanted or needed to move are still doing it.  My realtor friends have seen very little drop in overall sales, but they've actually wasted less time with looky-loo type clients, because the only people willing to interact with other humans enough to buy or sell a home during all of this, have been very serious and very motivated to get it done quickly.

They're actually kind of loving it, wasting a lot less time on non-serious buyers, for the most part.

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4305 on: May 26, 2020, 05:22:15 PM »
My daughter closed today on refinancing her house with a 2.99% 30 year rate

My son just finished renting a house which he will move into Thursday

so as far as this family is concerned the single family real estate business is booming
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4306 on: May 26, 2020, 05:31:45 PM »
I wonder how many construction projects planned in the near term will be cancelled.  There is going to be a lot of office space available.

Me too, all the construction projects around us are going full bore, including some that just finished demo.

I'm a bit surprised.  This is a big convention town, and without conventions ....

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4307 on: May 26, 2020, 06:20:51 PM »
Interesting day looking at the data.

Traditionally Sun/Mon have been very low, with Tuesday appearing to be the "catch up day". I've always wondered why it's Tuesday instead of Monday. I was trying to figure out whether there was something unique to Tuesday, or whether the pattern just somehow worked out to be "the second day after the weekend".

Well, today is Tuesday and the numbers are coming in very very low so far. Which suggests that either something really good is happening, or it means there's an extra day lag because yesterday was a holiday. 

Does that mean that tomorrow will look like a particularly large catch up day to account for the extra day of limited reporting? Or will it look like a typical catch up day and then the rest of the week proceed according to the normal pattern? If so, where did those missing deaths go? 

MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4308 on: May 26, 2020, 06:22:53 PM »
But the overwhelming evidence suggests the exact opposite.
Your evidence - not mine,yours,I've went after info on people dying around here like Seal Team 6 went after Bin Laden sorry your numbers don't stack up I know some numbers that do people loosing businesses.If I have an underlying condition then perhaps i ramp things up.As far as I know and i keep inquiring on a very major Hospital and 2 big retirement homes - nobody toes up.So has the Arch Angel Michael perched on Cleveland's west side?Or just the many insiders lying to me - gotta be a conspiracy right or Liars or the hand of God.I'm sure precautions do work somewhat to an extant,lot of carnival barking however
« Last Edit: May 26, 2020, 07:02:30 PM by MrNubbz »
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4309 on: May 26, 2020, 06:40:22 PM »
Interesting day looking at the data.

Traditionally Sun/Mon have been very low, with Tuesday appearing to be the "catch up day". I've always wondered why it's Tuesday instead of Monday. I was trying to figure out whether there was something unique to Tuesday, or whether the pattern just somehow worked out to be "the second day after the weekend".

Well, today is Tuesday and the numbers are coming in very very low so far. Which suggests that either something really good is happening, or it means there's an extra day lag because yesterday was a holiday.

Does that mean that tomorrow will look like a particularly large catch up day to account for the extra day of limited reporting? Or will it look like a typical catch up day and then the rest of the week proceed according to the normal pattern? If so, where did those missing deaths go?

I expected the holiday to delay the catch-up in reporting so I expect tomorrow to be the big post-weekend spike.  If it's not, that will be welcome, but if not, then it's what I expect.

Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4310 on: May 26, 2020, 06:44:53 PM »
So far, nothing, except that people just aren't listing right now. There is not a lot on the market in most places, and the prices have not come down.

We haven't seen a new order from Lennar for about a month now.
Yes, being in that business I am happy to say that home prices are actually on the rise in most major markets, and for the reasons you mentioned.  Those who would normally list and make their next move have hesitated, creating a shortage of inventory and thereby appreciating values.

also, during the crisis of the late 2000s we all got desensitized to rapidly depreciating values, but in this case the economic fundamentals associated with real estate are still very sound.   That was not the case then.
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Honestbuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #4311 on: May 26, 2020, 06:45:40 PM »
Your evidence - not mine,yours,I've went after info on people dying around here like Seal Team 6 went after Bin Laden sorry your numbers don't stack up I know some numbers that do people loosing businesses.If I have an underlying condition then perhaps i ramp things up.As far as I know and i keep inquiring on a very major Hospital and 2 big retirement homes - nobody toes up.So has the Arch Angel Michael perched on Cleveland's west side?Or just the many insiders lying to me - gotta be a conspiracy right or Liars or the hand of God.I'm sure precautions do work somewhat to an extant,lot of carnival however
I will admit, I have seen plenty of evidence in both directions on this.
Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please.
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