You guys know how I love data...here's more a more expansive breakdown of the method I used earlier in this thread.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/Actual Cases (1.7 million: 10 times the number of confirmed cases)New York State conducted an antibody testing study [
source], showing that 12.3% of the population in the state had COVID-19 antibodies as of May 1, 2020. The survey developed a baseline infection rate by testing 15,103 people at grocery stores and community centers across the state over the preceding two weeks. The study provides a breakdown by county, race (White 7%, Asian 11.1%, multi/none/other 14.4%, Black 17.4%, Latino/Hispanic 25.4%), and age, among other variables.
19.9% of the population of New York City had COVID-19 antibodies. With a population of 8,398,748 people in NYC [
source], this percentage would indicate that
1,671,351 people had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 and had recovered as of May 1 in New York City. The number of confirmed cases reported as of May 1 by New York City was
166,883 [
source], more than 10 times less.
Actual Deaths (23,000: almost twice the number of confirmed deaths)As of May 1, New York City reported 13,156 confirmed deaths and 5,126 probable deaths (deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate but no laboratory test performed), for a total of 18,282 deaths [
source]. The CDC on May 11 released its "
Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak — New York City, March 11–May 2, 2020" [
source] in which it calculated an estimate of actual COVID-19 deaths in NYC by analyzing the "excess deaths" (defined as "the number of deaths above expected seasonal baseline levels, regardless of the reported cause of death") and found that, in addition to the confirmed and probable deaths reported by the city, there were an estimated 5,293 more deaths to be attributed. After adjusting for the previous day (May 1), we get 5,148 additional deaths, for a total of actual deaths of 13,156 confirmed + 5,126 probable + 5,148 additional excess deaths calculated by CDC =
23,430 actual COVID-19 deaths as of May 1, 2020 in New York City.
Infection Fatality Rate (23k / 1.7M = 1.4% IFR)As of May 1, 23,430 people are estimated to have died out of a total population of 8,398,748 in New York City. This corresponds to a 0.28% crude mortality rate to date, or 279 deaths per 100,000 population, or 1 death every 358 people.When analyzing the breakdown of deaths by age and condition [
source], we can observe how, out of 15,230 confirmed deaths in New York City up to May 12, only 690
(4.5% of all deaths) occurred in patients under the age of 65 who did not have an underlying medical conditionSo far there has been 1 death every 1,166 people under 65 years old (compared to 1 death every 358 people in the general population). And 89% of the times, the person who died had one or more underlying medical conditions.
And to reach herd immunity for COVID-19 and effectively end the epidemic, approximately two thirds (67%) of the population would need to be infected. As of May 1, New York City is at 20%, based on the antibody study findings.
Therefore, the crude mortality rate has the potential to more than triple from our current estimate, reaching close to 1,000 deaths per 100,000 population (1% CMR), and close to 300 per 100,000 (0.3% CMR) in the population under 65 years old, with 89% of these deaths (267 out of 300) occurring in people with a known underlying medical condition (including obesity).