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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
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Cincydawg · « **Reply #3682 on:** May 11, 2020, 09:35:10 AM »

The numbers for Sweden look like the numbers for Georgia, which is interesting, both have about the same population, Sweden of course is only doing distancing, Georgia was shuttered for a few weeks.

The reporting methods likely are different.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #3683 on:** May 11, 2020, 09:44:43 AM »

I understand all of that, but people need to have a choice here too.

I take comfort knowing I can go get a haircut if I wanted to. That is much different than being told I can't. People need to get their confidence back too. Everyone is scared.

Antibody testing, already!!

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #3684 on:** May 11, 2020, 09:50:15 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on May 11, 2020, 09:35:10 AM

The numbers for Sweden look like the numbers for Georgia, which is interesting, both have about the same population, Sweden of course is only doing distancing, Georgia was shuttered for a few weeks.

The reporting methods likely are different.

Georgia has less than half the number of deaths/1M population of Sweden, although it has about a 20% higher cases/1M population number. Sweden may be under-testing, as they only have about 60% of the overall tests performed as Georgia, so the case numbers may be suspect.

Sweden just passed the Netherlands, after passing Ireland, to be 6th* on the list of deaths/1M population.

At 322 deaths/1M, they're now one of the higher nations in Europe. When compared to their "peers", Finland is only at 49 deaths/1M, and Norway is at 40 deaths/1M.

Oddly, Finland's daily new case numbers seem to be increasing steadily while Norway's are very low. I don't have much of an explanation for that...

But it suggests to those who are advocating a controlled and careful opening up**, perhaps at least to Sweden-style policies, that there will be a human cost associated with that. Sweden has managed to avoid overwhelming their healthcare system, but at best you can say they've had Coronavirus on a controlled burn, nowhere near extinguishing it.

BTW the US would be 9th on that list at 244 deaths/1M, but only 8 of our states have death/1M numbers higher than Sweden's, and our numbers are HIGHLY dominated by NY/NJ. Combined, they're a little over 40% of our total deaths.

* Note: that's 6th amongst populous nations. I don't think it's wrong to pull San Marino, Andorra, and Sint Maarten out of the list as they're too small to be relevant and none have more than 50 deaths total, but I don't want to be accused of not disclosing it. With those nations added, Sweden would be 9th.

** I honestly now consider myself in this group. I don't think this thing CAN be extinguished, no matter how long we keep the economy closed. Especially not in America, where we simply won't accept a China-style lockdown. I don't think it's going away for the summer either. So if we're on a controlled burn trajectory, we need to--as someone said recently here--start "feathering the throttle" on reopening. The goal is to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system, and slowly build to herd immunity, while allowing businesses to actually start making money and employing people again.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #3685 on:** May 11, 2020, 09:58:04 AM »

Is there any reliable data on co-morbidities in this thing? I remember Italy reporting some of that stuff, with most of their deaths having 3 or more, along with CV19.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #3686 on:** May 11, 2020, 10:00:12 AM »

I had looked at Daily New Cases reported in Georgia, and then in Sweden, and the graphs looked pretty similar.

Stuff around me, as I keep noting, is still mostly closed. Things are reopening slowly but a huge swath closed remains closed.

Even best case, it will be months before we start having conventions, which was a huge part of the local economy, and of course the airport is way down and it also is a huge part of the local economy. There is a lot of construction and that continues as before, but the proposed new construction appears to be largely on hold, so that might not last forever. These projects take roughly two years to complete, and then they may be largely empty buildings.

I don't see a good path back, frankly.

utee94 · « **Reply #3687 on:** May 11, 2020, 10:04:02 AM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on May 11, 2020, 09:50:15 AM

Georgia has less than half the number of deaths/1M population of Sweden, although it has about a 20% higher cases/1M population number. Sweden may be under-testing, as they only have about 60% of the overall tests performed as Georgia, so the case numbers may be suspect.

Sweden just passed the Netherlands, after passing Ireland, to be 6th* on the list of deaths/1M population.

At 322 deaths/1M, they're now one of the higher nations in Europe. When compared to their "peers", Finland is only at 49 deaths/1M, and Norway is at 40 deaths/1M.

Oddly, Finland's daily new case numbers seem to be increasing steadily while Norway's are very low. I don't have much of an explanation for that...

But it suggests to those who are advocating a controlled and careful opening up**, perhaps at least to Sweden-style policies, that there will be a human cost associated with that. Sweden has managed to avoid overwhelming their healthcare system, but at best you can say they've had Coronavirus on a controlled burn, nowhere near extinguishing it.

BTW the US would be 9th on that list at 244 deaths/1M, but only 8 of our states have death/1M numbers higher than Sweden's, and our numbers are HIGHLY dominated by NY/NJ. Combined, they're a little over 40% of our total deaths.

* Note: that's 6th amongst populous nations. I don't think it's wrong to pull San Marino, Andorra, and Sint Maarten out of the list as they're too small to be relevant and none have more than 50 deaths total, but I don't want to be accused of not disclosing it. With those nations added, Sweden would be 9th.

** I honestly now consider myself in this group. I don't think this thing CAN be extinguished, no matter how long we keep the economy closed. Especially not in America, where we simply won't accept a China-style lockdown. I don't think it's going away for the summer either. So if we're on a controlled burn trajectory, we need to--as someone said recently here--start "feathering the throttle" on reopening. The goal is to avoid overwhelming the healthcare system, and slowly build to herd immunity, while allowing businesses to actually start making money and employing people again.

We didn't know it 8 weeks ago, so I don't contest the wisdom of attempting strict lock-down, but I believe it is now apparent that this is all we were ever going to be able to do. The virus got here too quickly, and it's too infectious, ever to have eliminated it or stopped transmission. All we could ever do was attempt to slow down transmission enough so that we didn't compound the deaths by overrunning the hospitals.

I also think that every single country that locked down "better" than we did, is simply going to push out the date of their final death tally. As we see in South Korea, China, and Singapore, cases are on the rise once again, the moment people begin interacting with one another. I don't know if there exists an amount of time where a pure lockdown could eliminate this thing, but if such a time exists, it's certainly not realistic or tolerable for humans to remain quarantined for that long, and still have a viable nation to return to "when this is all over."

Only choice now is to reopen carefully, monitor the hospitals for capacity, and ideally get a reliable antibody test en masse to the public. That does, of course, assume that some reasonable amount of immunity is conferred. If not, then that part doesn't matter, either.

bayareabadger · « **Reply #3688 on:** May 11, 2020, 10:10:52 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 09:58:04 AM

Is there any reliable data on co-morbidities in this thing? I remember Italy reporting some of that stuff, with most of their deaths having 3 or more, along with CV19.

Has anyone here even seen an exhaustive list of co-morbidities?

Cincydawg · « **Reply #3689 on:** May 11, 2020, 10:16:10 AM »

The main comorbidity frankly is being in just about any kind of compromised health situation, obesity, asthma, diabetes, age, immune system deficiency ....

I don't think there is one unusual thing t hat makes this more lethal.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #3690 on:** May 11, 2020, 10:17:06 AM »

All of the hospitals built for this thing need to remain available. There aren't going to be conventions this year, so I hope they remain.

847badgerfan · « **Reply #3691 on:** May 11, 2020, 10:18:14 AM »

Quote from: bayareabadger on May 11, 2020, 10:10:52 AM

Has anyone here even seen an exhaustive list of co-morbidities?

I have not - only vague statements here and there. We know what they are, but I would like to know how many CV19 deaths had one, two, three, etc.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #3692 on:** May 11, 2020, 11:17:25 AM »

Longer term, I am trying to guess what large impacts this may have on how we function. I look at all the construction going on around us here, much of it office space ....

And if you can "work from home" and don't need office space, what does that mean for the desire to live close to work?

I can see the possibility of a long duration economic downturn here.

FearlessF · « **Reply #3693 on:** May 11, 2020, 11:19:15 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on May 11, 2020, 10:17:06 AM

All of the hospitals built for this thing need to remain available. There aren't going to be conventions this year, so I hope they remain.

I don't think there will be full stadiums of football fans either
I'm doubting that we have a football season
all it will take to shutdown the season is for one or two P5 teams to be infected

50 kids on a 100 man roster get sick and one of them dies, or the support staff of another 100, and the NCAA will shut things down

utee94 · « **Reply #3694 on:** May 11, 2020, 11:35:01 AM »

Quote from: FearlessF on May 11, 2020, 11:19:15 AM

I don't think there will be full stadiums of football fans either
I'm doubting that we have a football season
all it will take to shutdown the season is for one or two P5 teams to be infected

50 kids on a 100 man roster get sick and one of them dies, or the support staff of another 100, and the NCAA will shut things down

I think you're underestimating how many kids never engaged in social distancing, never stopped meeting, and have already been exposed to this. They just did it behind closed doors. They're young and feel invincible, they don't believe there's any danger to them from this, and for the most part, they're right.

In a couple of months, if/when we get reliable antibody testing, I think we're going to find that a large segment of the younger population has already had it. A much higher percentage of them will test positive for antibodies, compared to "adults."

At that point, there's no more justification for shutting things down "if just one player gets it" because tons will have already had it.

But the key is antibody testing, along with the knowledge that immunity is conferred. If not, well, all bets are off and everything we've done is pretty pointless anyway.

FearlessF · « **Reply #3695 on:** May 11, 2020, 11:40:37 AM »

one death. not one infection

if a football team with 100 on the roster gets it, the percentage will be high, maybe 50%

if 5 kids get very sick, that will be cause for concern

if one kid dies......... it's game over

we just had a death reported this morning in this county of 103,000 - age 19-30

obviously great chance that young person had other health issues

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

Cincydawg

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

847badgerfan

Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

betarhoalphadelta

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847badgerfan

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Cincydawg

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utee94

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bayareabadger

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Cincydawg

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847badgerfan

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847badgerfan

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Cincydawg

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FearlessF

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utee94

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FearlessF

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