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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3388 on: May 04, 2020, 10:41:57 AM »
I looked at the Phoenix zip code map of most cases - and mine isn't on it, but the one directly north of me has almost 100 cases.  
I'll stop using the gas station on that border.  Otherwise, I don't know what else to do.
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3389 on: May 04, 2020, 10:47:39 AM »
1464 cases in Travis County (Austin proper and some of the surrounding suburbs).  But like other places, we're not doing a ton of testing, so I doubt that number is even close to accurate.


Its true that Texas ranks low on the testing meter but only 9 states have a better death to population number

hope this continues
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

CWSooner

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3390 on: May 04, 2020, 11:15:28 AM »
Tulsa County has 607 confirmed case, 421 recovered, 34 deaths.  5.6% deaths/confirmed cases.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3391 on: May 04, 2020, 11:22:56 AM »
https://www.ajc.com/news/local/lenox-phipps-among-metro-atlanta-malls-set-reopen-today/l25yH36nL59xhJJl5mMwLJ/

Some major ATL malls set to reopen.  I can't imagine going shopping for say shoes right now, but I guess some will.  It's probably "OK" healthwise, but with some risk, and you don't need shoes.  Confirmed cases appears to be drifting down even with more testing, which is good, we wouldn't have any signal yet about how the reopening is impacting this of course.

https://www.ajc.com/news/coronavirus-georgia-covid-dashboard/IjORDGLckdP3RI9hJU5CWO/

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3392 on: May 04, 2020, 11:31:39 AM »
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

This is weird, to me, they are predicting a bed shortage on April 19.  I think we missed any bed shortage, and in any event why "predict" something in the past?  They also predict 72,433 deaths, which is fine, except we're already well into the 60s (68,715) with time to go, and that leveling may not occur obviously.

I probably won't use this site any more.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3393 on: May 04, 2020, 11:32:41 AM »
So... I've changed my position.

It's time to open up. Everything. No restrictions. Restaurants, bars, nightclubs, travel, concerts/sporting events/churches/gatherings. Let 'er rip.

Now, some of you might find that surprising coming from me. After all, I've consistently argued that this appears to be a very transmissible disease, such that there's a good chance US infection rates if we let 'er rip will reach at least if not above the 2009 H1N1 rates (60M estimated infected in the US). And I've also argued that the true mortality rate is many multiples of the seasonal flu.

So doesn't this mean that I'm arguing that we should open up fully, and thus consigning hundreds of thousands of people to die?

Well, yeah. But the truth is that people are tired of this lockdown. It's so last month. I mean, people can try to put away their selfishness to help their fellow man for a little while, but 6 weeks? C'mon, we're Americans. We want to go to the beach. We want to go to the restaurant. And masks are terribly unfashionable.

Most living American have never known anything truly bad in their lives. Sure, 9/11 was bad, and it created a bunch of fear, but it was a 1-day event and created a rallying point--but the ensuing war didn't really result in any personal sacrifice. The last time they've every truly had to sacrifice might have been the Vietnam War, when we still had a military draft. But... That was a war fought by those not well off enough to be in college, or secure deferments, and the war was fought "over there". Before that, maybe WWII, when we actually had full society mobilization, rationing, etc. But those alive during WWII and those few who were alive during the Great Depression or the Spanish Flu are now too few to make a difference.

We simply cannot fathom that this is bad enough to change our behavior. And I mean that literally. We're so comfortable in our lives, in the power of our medicine, that we simply cannot wrap our brains around what a couple hundred thousand [or more] deaths over the span of a few months means to our way of life. Thus, we refuse to change our way of life to avoid it. 

So I give up... Maybe America needs a good ol' kick in the face. We haven't proven we deserve better.
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/oc-restaurant-hits-capacity-after-opening-doors-ignoring-stay-at-home-orders/2356303/?amp
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/us/california-orange-county-injunction-beaches/index.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/30/michigan-protests-coronavirus-lockdown-armed-capitol
https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility
https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/covid19-shelter-in-place?s=US&d=04-30-2020&t=counties&m=percent
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/01/masks-politics-coronavirus-227765

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3394 on: May 04, 2020, 11:36:13 AM »
Many Americans simply will not stay battened down much longer.  Many will take some precautions, and businesses will as well, but I sense folks already are getting back to New Normal around here.

longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3395 on: May 04, 2020, 12:15:49 PM »
So... I've changed my position.

It's time to open up. Everything. No restrictions. Restaurants, bars, nightclubs, travel, concerts/sporting events/churches/gatherings. Let 'er rip.

Now, some of you might find that surprising coming from me. After all, I've consistently argued that this appears to be a very transmissible disease, such that there's a good chance US infection rates if we let 'er rip will reach at least if not above the 2009 H1N1 rates (60M estimated infected in the US). And I've also argued that the true mortality rate is many multiples of the seasonal flu.

So doesn't this mean that I'm arguing that we should open up fully, and thus consigning hundreds of thousands of people to die?

Well, yeah. But the truth is that people are tired of this lockdown. It's so last month. I mean, people can try to put away their selfishness to help their fellow man for a little while, but 6 weeks? C'mon, we're Americans. We want to go to the beach. We want to go to the restaurant. And masks are terribly unfashionable.

Most living American have never known anything truly bad in their lives. Sure, 9/11 was bad, and it created a bunch of fear, but it was a 1-day event and created a rallying point--but the ensuing war didn't really result in any personal sacrifice. The last time they've every truly had to sacrifice might have been the Vietnam War, when we still had a military draft. But... That was a war fought by those not well off enough to be in college, or secure deferments, and the war was fought "over there". Before that, maybe WWII, when we actually had full society mobilization, rationing, etc. But those alive during WWII and those few who were alive during the Great Depression or the Spanish Flu are now too few to make a difference.

We simply cannot fathom that this is bad enough to change our behavior. And I mean that literally. We're so comfortable in our lives, in the power of our medicine, that we simply cannot wrap our brains around what a couple hundred thousand [or more] deaths over the span of a few months means to our way of life. Thus, we refuse to change our way of life to avoid it. 

So I give up... Maybe America needs a good ol' kick in the face. We haven't proven we deserve better.
https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/oc-restaurant-hits-capacity-after-opening-doors-ignoring-stay-at-home-orders/2356303/?amp
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/us/california-orange-county-injunction-beaches/index.html
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/apr/30/michigan-protests-coronavirus-lockdown-armed-capitol
https://www.apple.com/covid19/mobility
https://www.safegraph.com/dashboard/covid19-shelter-in-place?s=US&d=04-30-2020&t=counties&m=percent
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/01/masks-politics-coronavirus-227765

so bingo youre the Pres

what plan would you follow for reopening that we arent doing now
or would you simply stay closed until a vaccine or drug appears
They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3396 on: May 04, 2020, 12:31:04 PM »
so bingo youre the Pres

what plan would you follow for reopening that we arent doing now
or would you simply stay closed until a vaccine or drug appears
It doesn't matter what the plan is if it isn't followed... And it's not being followed. 

The links I posted:

  • Local restaurant (and other businesses) are opening in contravention of the orders. They're basically saying "I dare you to shut us down." 
  • Moron protestors, 2-3000 of them, standing around together mostly without masks or any protective gear protesting a BEACH shutdown of all things... This isn't about economics, it's about leisure at the beach. A week after thousands and thousands swarmed the beaches.
  • Additional moron protestors. 
  • Link to Apple data which suggests (based on the number of people asking for directions on their phones) that people have frankly tired of the lockdown and they're returning to being out and about.
  • Additional data showing that after a peak of people actually following stay-at-home on April 12, they've gradually gotten less and less willing to do so and have gotten almost halfway back to pre-restriction behavior.
  • A story about how COVID-19, which should have been a wake-up call to ALL of us that we're in this together, has become a political football being defined down partisan lines. 

So if we're not, as Americans, actually going to follow the rules, why have them?




Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3397 on: May 04, 2020, 12:51:12 PM »
We largely follow rules that make sense to us.  When they don't, we drive faster than the 70 mph speed limit.

We also don't deal well with technical matters and things where some pain NOW reduces pain LATER (deficit spending).  We also don't check data very well and believe the latest FB rumor that memes up.

We also verb a lot of nouns.

Other countries are opening up, it's not as if the US is some complete outlier.  Each governor is calling it for his or her state.  As I've noted, restaurants here are ABLE to open, but most have remained closed.  That suggests something.  

It is also true that we can't stay closed for months and months, the economy would simply collapse, it may collapse any way.  I'm talking starvation level collapse and hyperinflation, a bad scene.  Right now we're floating long on fiat money giveaways and people not being forced to pay rent.  At some point, the folks producing food will stop producing because they can't sell and get food to a market anywhere or money has no value and we're bartering.


847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3398 on: May 04, 2020, 01:02:56 PM »
There are 6 cases in my Florida zip code and 66 in my Illinois zip code. I can't find a zip code map for Kenosha County, WI, but the county has 534 cases.
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3399 on: May 04, 2020, 01:05:31 PM »


It is also true that we can't stay closed for months and months, the economy would simply collapse, it may collapse any way.  I'm talking starvation level collapse and hyperinflation, a bad scene.  Right now we're floating long on fiat money giveaways and people not being forced to pay rent.  At some point, the folks producing food will stop producing because they can't sell and get food to a market anywhere or money has no value and we're bartering.


Maybe Americans will finally understand that we should be actively trying to reduce the deficit and build social safety nets during periods of economic prosperity, so that we can weather the inevitable economic downturn.

What am I saying?  Whew I made a funny there.  We aren't gonna change.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3400 on: May 04, 2020, 01:07:16 PM »
Yeah, I see no practicable way we would sacrifice during good times to put up funds for bad times, much less try and reduce the deficit in good times.


Anyone trying to do that for real would not get reelected.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3401 on: May 04, 2020, 01:11:04 PM »

 

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