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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3360 on: May 03, 2020, 04:37:14 PM »
A unique situation has arisen for quite an accurate estimate of the CFR of COVID-19. Among individuals onboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, data on the denominator are fairly robust. The outbreak of COVID-19 led passengers to be quarantined between Jan 20, and Feb 29, 2020. This scenario provided a population living in a defined territory without most other confounders, such as imported cases, defaulters of screening, or lack of testing capability. 3711 passengers and crew were onboard, of whom 705 became sick and tested positive for COVID-19 and seven died,
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 giving a CFR of 0·99%. If the passengers onboard were generally of an older age, the CFR in a healthy, younger population could be lower.
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https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3361 on: May 03, 2020, 04:38:15 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 04:30:16 PM
You are saying roughly 2% of those who contract the disease die, correct (1.3-2.3%)?

I can buy that, I do wonder how many deaths are from COVID and not in the numbers, and how many in the numbers are not really COVID.

I'd probably put wider error bars on your estimate myself, but I think your likely are pretty close.
That would be my best estimate as a layman and data guy, with a few caveats.

1.  In America, we aren't as healthy as the Japanese.  They may very well have a lower mortality rate than we do.
2.  In America, we have a fairly sizeable older population.  (Boomers+).  Obviously a country with more younger people would likely have a lower rate.  (in PA, 65% of deaths have happened in nursing homes)
3.  Assuming our health system doesn't get overloaded and we start running out of doctors, medical equipment, etc.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3362 on: May 03, 2020, 04:42:10 PM »
The scary thing in 1918 was that the spring influenza that year was only a bit more lethal than normal.  The virus mutated to a more virulent form that call and of course run up huge numbers of deaths (est. 50 million on a much smaller population base of about 1.5 billion).

https://www1.racgp.org.au/newsgp/clinical/why-does-the-coronavirus-fatality-rate-differ-so-m

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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3363 on: May 03, 2020, 04:44:59 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 04:37:14 PM
A unique situation has arisen for quite an accurate estimate of the CFR of COVID-19. Among individuals onboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship, data on the denominator are fairly robust. The outbreak of COVID-19 led passengers to be quarantined between Jan 20, and Feb 29, 2020. This scenario provided a population living in a defined territory without most other confounders, such as imported cases, defaulters of screening, or lack of testing capability. 3711 passengers and crew were onboard, of whom 705 became sick and tested positive for COVID-19 and seven died,
6
giving a CFR of 0·99%. If the passengers onboard were generally of an older age, the CFR in a healthy, younger population could be lower.
7




https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30244-9/fulltext
So a fatality rate of .... 1%.  Not less than 0.8%...

Nevertheless, I did find this very interesting.  My only caveat:  Although the cruise line was older, it was likely a fairly healthy population.

Also, the sample size is a bit small.  Just 2 more deaths and we are at nearly a 1.5% death rate.
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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3364 on: May 03, 2020, 05:26:56 PM »
In my experience, cruise line tourists are not very healthy.  They certainly are older.  The workers are much younger of course, so you have about a third of the ship in their 20s.  I presume they were included in the sampling.  I like your estimate, but would broaden it to 1% to 4%, I'm not sure the tenth of a percent is a significant figure.  My guess is for western countries without unusual comorbidities.  Belgium apparently counts differently, so their situation may not be so dire.

There is some chance the disease is much more widely spread of course, say a factor of 5x to even 20x.  There is some chance we are undercounting fatalities by 2x.

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3365 on: May 03, 2020, 05:47:24 PM »
About 28% of Americans are over 65 (if I did it right).  If the cruise ship passengers are all over 65 and vulnerable, we could GUESS that the other 2/3rds of the population would be unlikely to die.  So, we COULD take that 0.99% and divide by 3.

Nobody would DO that of course, but they COULD.
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FearlessF

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3366 on: May 03, 2020, 08:02:00 PM »
so, there's not a great source of data that can be believed because of many reasons?

politics and agendas

great
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3367 on: May 03, 2020, 08:33:25 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on May 03, 2020, 05:26:56 PM
In my experience, cruise line tourists are not very healthy.  They certainly are older.  The workers are much younger of course, so you have about a third of the ship in their 20s.  I presume they were included in the sampling.  I like your estimate, but would broaden it to 1% to 4%, I'm not sure the tenth of a percent is a significant figure.  My guess is for western countries without unusual comorbidities.  Belgium apparently counts differently, so their situation may not be so dire.

There is some chance the disease is much more widely spread of course, say a factor of 5x to even 20x.  There is some chance we are undercounting fatalities by 2x.


I only have PA numbers, but 65% of deaths have been in nursing homes.  They are certainly healthier than that!  :)
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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3368 on: May 03, 2020, 08:41:56 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on May 03, 2020, 08:02:00 PM
so, there's not a great source of data that can be believed because of many reasons?

politics and agendas

great
It isn't that data can't be believed.

Data is data.

Science takes no political side.  For absolutely sure this is a very deadly and serious virus.  There is some debate on HOW deadly it is, but it is deadly nonetheless. Italy did not bring itself to the brink of disaster for USA politics.  

When I say some debate, it is like debating how bad Rutgers is.  We know they are bad.  Maybe they aren't worst in the B1G this year, but they probably are.  If someone starts telling me that Rutgers is far and away the best team in the nation I can pretty assume they are off their rocker.
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3369 on: May 03, 2020, 08:42:17 PM »
If I thought a cruise ship were environmentally representative of the general population, I guess I might be more interested in this data.

But as a self-contained, tightly packed vessel with recirculated air and self-selected passenger sample that tends toward the older and less healthy, I just can't really accept it as a representative sample.  Perhaps an interesting data point, but maybe not even that.


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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3370 on: May 03, 2020, 09:11:51 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on May 03, 2020, 08:42:17 PM
If I thought a cruise ship were environmentally representative of the general population, I guess I might be more interested in this data.

But as a self-contained, tightly packed vessel with recirculated air and self-selected passenger sample that tends toward the older and less healthy, I just can't really accept it as a representative sample.  Perhaps an interesting data point, but maybe not even that.



Which of the other data points do you find interesting?  
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longhorn320

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3371 on: May 03, 2020, 09:39:20 PM »
Quote from: utee94 on May 03, 2020, 08:42:17 PM
If I thought a cruise ship were environmentally representative of the general population, I guess I might be more interested in this data.

But as a self-contained, tightly packed vessel with recirculated air and self-selected passenger sample that tends toward the older and less healthy, I just can't really accept it as a representative sample.  Perhaps an interesting data point, but maybe not even that.



everybody keeps pointing to NYC data but they dont represent the general population of the country either

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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3372 on: May 03, 2020, 10:27:40 PM »
Quote from: FearlessF on May 03, 2020, 08:02:00 PM
so, there's not a great source of data that can be believed because of many reasons?

politics and agendas

great
This is the larger problem.  
No data set can be trusted that gets laundered through news services.  
And we act like reading data directly from the source is some sort of impossible task and/or we're genuinely unable to handle scientific text.  

I'll apply your post to the larger idea of the democracy portion of our government - it only works with an informed populace. We are misinformed, on purpose, because certain huge corporations want to make more money.


I don't think it's too great a leap to say our financial system is damning our political system.  
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3373 on: May 03, 2020, 11:42:17 PM »
Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on May 03, 2020, 09:11:51 PM
Which of the other data points do you find interesting? 
NYC is interesting.  California is interesting.  Ohio and Texas and Florida are interesting.  These are all representative of their specific regions, localities, cultural realities.

This is not affecting all regions the same.  It's not affecting all populations the same.  Why?  

That is what interests me.  It's what interests the epidemiologists, too.
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