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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3234 on: May 01, 2020, 09:17:03 AM »
My problem with beach photos is the intentional distortion of distancing by using a telephoto lens.  Those groups may be 20 feet apart, and the lens makes them look bunched together.

The beach is a linear park in effect. 
I did see your post in the other thread and was going to highlight the point just made, that I'm guessing it might be all well and good if each contained group was a household unit, and they were all effectively distancing from the other groups. But I'm guessing a good number of those groups were friends, NOT a household unit, which defeats the purpose. 

The other aspect is the continuous breeze. Heck, it's the reason for going to the beach, but I'll bet it creates a MUCH wider dispersal of aerosolized droplets of virus than calm air would do. So I'm not sure 6ft distancing is sufficient there. Especially if you're spending a significant amount of time downwind from someone infected, as may be the case since each group is stationary and trying to not mingle with others. 

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3235 on: May 01, 2020, 09:39:49 AM »
Yeah, the groups may be from different HHs, but there isn't a rule about that, and it would happen anywhere of course.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3236 on: May 01, 2020, 10:01:21 AM »
Yeah, the groups may be from different HHs, but there isn't a rule about that, and it would happen anywhere of course.
Well, the guidelines (or at least the FAQ on the state gov't page) do suggest only gathering with your own household. 

It's at the bottom re: outdoor recreation.

https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-for-essential-needs/

It’s okay to go outside to go for a walk, to exercise, and participate in healthy activities as long as you maintain a safe physical distance of six feet and gather only with members of your household. Below is a non-exhaustive list of those outdoor recreational activities.

bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3237 on: May 01, 2020, 11:45:49 AM »


3. I don't need a degree in epidemiology or medicine to know bullshit when I see it. Fauci telling people we cannot shake hands or even been within 6 feet of others, but having a hookup on tender is perfectly fine would be a great example. Tinder Hookups Ok

From the interview that led to that link:
Fauci on if handshakes would disappear: "That’s not going to happen. What I hope happens is that people do something really simple, and that’s called washing your hands as often as you possibly can and using some sort of alcohol-based Purell, or something like that. Because handshaking, I mean, I think people will go back to handshaking, but we should probably be a little bit reserved in how we do that unless it’s in a social situation where it’s necessary."

On Tinder: "that’s tough. Because it’s what’s called relative risk. If you really feel that you don’t want to have any part of this virus, will you maintain six feet away, wear a mask, do all the things that we talk about in the guidelines? If you’re willing to take a risk—and you know, everybody has their own tolerance for risks—you could figure out if you want to meet somebody. And it depends on the level of the interaction that you want to have. If you’re looking for a friend, sit in a room and put a mask on, and you know, chat a bit. If you want to go a little bit more intimate, well, then that’s your choice regarding a risk."

Is that bullshit? Seems like the headline someone else put on it and the reaction were bullshit. I dunno. 

bayareabadger

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3238 on: May 01, 2020, 11:47:04 AM »
From what we have been told by the "experts", sunlight kills the virus. Therefore, shouldn't we encourage people to be outside in the sunshine?
Isn't that only the virus on surfaces? I.e. outside the body?

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3239 on: May 01, 2020, 11:47:25 AM »
Fauci gets his statements mischaracterized all the time.  I'm sure he's frustrated with that.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3240 on: May 01, 2020, 12:17:40 PM »
3. I don't need a degree in epidemiology or medicine to know bullshit when I see it. Fauci telling people we cannot shake hands or even been within 6 feet of others, but having a hookup on tender is perfectly fine would be a great example. Tinder Hookups Ok
From the interview that led to that link:
Fauci on if handshakes would disappear: "That’s not going to happen. What I hope happens is that people do something really simple, and that’s called washing your hands as often as you possibly can and using some sort of alcohol-based Purell, or something like that. Because handshaking, I mean, I think people will go back to handshaking, but we should probably be a little bit reserved in how we do that unless it’s in a social situation where it’s necessary."

On Tinder: "that’s tough. Because it’s what’s called relative risk. If you really feel that you don’t want to have any part of this virus, will you maintain six feet away, wear a mask, do all the things that we talk about in the guidelines? If you’re willing to take a risk—and you know, everybody has their own tolerance for risks—you could figure out if you want to meet somebody. And it depends on the level of the interaction that you want to have. If you’re looking for a friend, sit in a room and put a mask on, and you know, chat a bit. If you want to go a little bit more intimate, well, then that’s your choice regarding a risk."

Is that bullshit? Seems like the headline someone else put on it and the reaction were bullshit. I dunno.

Yeah, I don't get the sense that Fauci was saying that hookups on Tinder were "perfectly fine". That's an utterly ridiculous mischaracterization of what he said. Clearly he's saying that it's risky. 

Basically everything we do is make a choice re: risk. The goal at a societal level is to stop practices that result in mass transmission. 

In this country, it's customary to greet nearly everyone with a handshake, unless they're close enough to warrant a hug. Business meetings, meeting friends, general introductions, etc. Think about Italy and Spain, where it's customary to greet close friends with a kiss on each cheek. 

If I travel for business during normal times, between all the meetings I might shake 10-30 hands in one day. And those people might shake a heck of a lot more hands than mine. And that's with a bunch of people who aren't social distancing, so transmission chains from one person going to a bunch of meetings can be extensive. If one person is infected there could be tens who are affected downstream.

Compare that to a Tinder date during lockdown... You have two people who are probably social distancing, and are asymptomatic, so at the very least both are unlikely to have the virus, but even if one does... And it gets hot and heavy... The net infection transmission chain is +1 unless you're about to go on 4 more Tinder dates that night. 

From a societal standpoint, a normal business interaction where people are shaking hands with large numbers of other people IS actually more risky than a Tinder hookup where two people get it on. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3241 on: May 01, 2020, 12:25:15 PM »
Isn't that only the virus on surfaces? I.e. outside the body?
Outside the body, yes, but not just on surfaces.

If you look at the linked slide from the White House briefing I posted on the last page, they additionally studied aerosolized droplets. Halflife of the virus supposedly had a >30-fold reduction in simulated sunlight relative to no UV. Aerosolized droplets had a half-life of 60 minutes if no UV was present. On surfaces it was estimated a half-life of 2 minutes on surfaces in direct sunlight, and ~1.5 minutes for aerosolized droplets. 

We don't know exactly what level of viral load is necessary for infection, nor whether reduced initial viral load has any bearing on severity of the illness, but obviously risk goes down exponentially faster in direct sunlight compared to no UV. 

So essentially you shouldn't really worry TOO much about touching surfaces in direct sunlight if you have any reasonable expectation that nobody has touched the surface in the last few minutes. I.e. why some people suggest that taking shopping carts from a sunny parking lot might potentially be safer than those in the shade which have been wiped down with disinfectant. (I don't know if it's empirically true, but it's at least logically plausible.)

But being in a crowd in direct sunlight... Not safe. Because there's plenty of time for someone who coughs to infect you.

I.e. going to Wrigley field on a nice warm sunny day and sitting in crowded stands for a few hours during a ballgame would be dangerous because of the half-life time for the virus in those aerosolized droplets, REGARDLESS of the sunlight exposure. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3242 on: May 01, 2020, 12:27:17 PM »
:57:


NorthernOhioBuckeye

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3243 on: May 01, 2020, 01:54:11 PM »
From the interview that led to that link:
Fauci on if handshakes would disappear: "That’s not going to happen. What I hope happens is that people do something really simple, and that’s called washing your hands as often as you possibly can and using some sort of alcohol-based Purell, or something like that. Because handshaking, I mean, I think people will go back to handshaking, but we should probably be a little bit reserved in how we do that unless it’s in a social situation where it’s necessary."

On Tinder: "that’s tough. Because it’s what’s called relative risk. If you really feel that you don’t want to have any part of this virus, will you maintain six feet away, wear a mask, do all the things that we talk about in the guidelines? If you’re willing to take a risk—and you know, everybody has their own tolerance for risks—you could figure out if you want to meet somebody. And it depends on the level of the interaction that you want to have. If you’re looking for a friend, sit in a room and put a mask on, and you know, chat a bit. If you want to go a little bit more intimate, well, then that’s your choice regarding a risk."

Is that bullshit? Seems like the headline someone else put on it and the reaction were bullshit. I dunno.


So it's OK to risk yourself and your family or another person and their family on a "hook up", but it's not OK to chance that in every other aspect of life? Got it. 

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3244 on: May 01, 2020, 02:39:35 PM »
So it's OK to risk yourself and your family or another person and their family on a "hook up", but it's not OK to chance that in every other aspect of life? Got it.

What's the angle here, NOB? 

Do you really think Fauci is saying a random Tinder hookup is "perfectly fine"? Or that he believes that it's "perfectly fine"?

It seems like the response is trying to blast Fauci over a nothingburger...

Kris60

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3245 on: May 01, 2020, 03:05:22 PM »
What's the angle here, NOB?

Do you really think Fauci is saying a random Tinder hookup is "perfectly fine"? Or that he believes that it's "perfectly fine"?

It seems like the response is trying to blast Fauci over a nothingburger...
Not to speak for NOB but I think he is saying if two people are capable of deciding if they want to meet for a date then why can’t I decide for myself if I want to risk going to a bar, or a restaurant, or a barbershop.

At least that is how I took it.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3246 on: May 01, 2020, 03:37:41 PM »


Not to speak for NOB but I think he is saying if two people are capable of deciding if they want to meet for a date then why can’t I decide for myself if I want to risk going to a bar, or a restaurant, or a barbershop.

At least that is how I took it.
Yes, same here.

I'm not knocking Fauci at all, but there appears to be a bit of a "har har wink wink" double standard there.  



betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3247 on: May 01, 2020, 03:38:47 PM »
Not to speak for NOB but I think he is saying if two people are capable of deciding if they want to meet for a date then why can’t I decide for myself if I want to risk going to a bar, or a restaurant, or a barbershop.

At least that is how I took it.
I get that. And I'm sure if Fauci said "dating is outlawed; you can't see anyone outside your current household" that people would be MORE pleased than what he said? Would we rather do as China did and not allow people to leave their residences without a government-controlled clean bill of health? Would you want the government to start stopping people on the roads who are going to their boyfriend/girlfriend's house demanding to see their papers because they're cavorting with someone not in their own household? Because it's not just about Tinder--a Tinder date with someone you've just met is just as risky as going to see someone you already know, right? 

The simplest answer is that it's a lot easier for government to regulate economic behavior than personal behavior. It's a lot easier for them to close beaches than it is to prosecute beachgoers who aren't appropriately social distancing. The level of intrusion necessary to stop the sort of interaction NOB is bringing up is clearly untenable and far more than Americans would allow, so we're trying to muddle through this mess.

If you listen to Fauci's response, he basically says "risk" or "mask" several times and "six feet away". Clearly he was NOT saying it was a great idea. Not only that, it's NOB who called it a "Tinder hookup", not Fauci. Fauci's response seems to be more tailored to someone who is trying to navigate the compexity of dating in the COVID-19 era, not someone whose intent is just a booty call. 

But "Fauci says we're not allowed to shake hands but thinks a Tinder hookup is perfectly fine" sounds outrageous, so that's what we're running with apparently. 

 

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