header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

 (Read 771004 times)

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25280
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3080 on: April 29, 2020, 09:07:20 AM »
What do we do if there is no conferred immunity for this disease (either from contracting it or a vaccine)?

Or if it starts mutating rapidly to generate the same effect?
What do we do if we find out this thing didn't come from a bat?
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71626
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3081 on: April 29, 2020, 09:08:22 AM »
What do we do if we find out this thing didn't come from a bat?
I think it is nearly certain it came from a bat one way or the other, possibly via a pangolin as a zoonotic pathway.


Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71626
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:

NorthernOhioBuckeye

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1101
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3083 on: April 29, 2020, 09:10:01 AM »
What do we do if there is no conferred immunity for this disease (either from contracting it or a vaccine)?

Or if it starts mutating rapidly to generate the same effect?
Hiding in our houses for the rest of our lives doesn't seem to be a viable option. Life has risks, this is simply another. Humans tend to adapt to their environments, this would be another thing that we would either adapt too or find a way to live with. Either way, spending the rest of our lives hiding under our beds does not appear to be a viable option.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71626
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3084 on: April 29, 2020, 09:11:26 AM »
That is a snapshot in time of course, and South Korea started testing earlier, but in mid-March they had tested 270,000 out of a population of nearly 52 million.

There is more to this than just testing.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71626
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3085 on: April 29, 2020, 09:13:23 AM »
If there is no immunity conferred, we will have to adjust obviously, and the elderly are going to suffer one way or the other particularly hard.  I'm very curious about how South Korea has managed this situation, there is more to it than testing of course.

We should be trying to learn from good and bad experiences elsewhere instead of harping on some single variable (particularly if it has a latent political point).


Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71626
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3086 on: April 29, 2020, 09:30:02 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/gilead-reports-positive-data-on-remdesivir-coronavirus-drug-trial.html

Some apparently good news (aside from the fact I own some GILD stock in my IRA).

Gilead Sciences said Wednesday preliminary results of a coronavirus drug trial showed at least 50% of patients treated with a 5-day dosage of antiviral drug remdesivir improved and more than half were discharged from the hospital within two weeks.
Shares of Gilead were up more than 7% in premarket trading.

The clinical trial involved patients with severe cases of Covid-19. The severe study is “single-arm,” meaning it did not evaluate the drug against a control group of patients who didn’t receive the drug.



betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12222
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3087 on: April 29, 2020, 09:34:02 AM »
On testing ...

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-testing-per-capita-us-italy-south-korea-2020-4




One of the reason South Korea's tests/1M are lower than ours is that they started AGGRESSIVELY testing very early. Rather than let the virus spread unknowingly, whenever a positive case was found they would perform "contact tracing" to find out who you had been around in the recent past, and proactively go test THOSE people too, in order to try to arrest the spread before it could blow up. 

According to worldometers they have over 600K tests now and only a little over 10K documented cases, a 60:1 ratio.

We now have just under 6M tests and a little over 1M documented cases, only a 6:1 ratio. 

This is because we let this thing spread for a long time before anyone got serious about it, and even now we haven't followed South Korea's lead and attempted to do contact tracing and proactively look for where it might have spread when we find a confirmed case. 

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12222
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3088 on: April 29, 2020, 09:35:36 AM »
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/29/gilead-reports-positive-data-on-remdesivir-coronavirus-drug-trial.html

Some apparently good news (aside from the fact I own some GILD stock in my IRA).

Gilead Sciences said Wednesday preliminary results of a coronavirus drug trial showed at least 50% of patients treated with a 5-day dosage of antiviral drug remdesivir improved and more than half were discharged from the hospital within two weeks.
Shares of Gilead were up more than 7% in premarket trading.

The clinical trial involved patients with severe cases of Covid-19. The severe study is “single-arm,” meaning it did not evaluate the drug against a control group of patients who didn’t receive the drug.

Excellent news. 

NorthernOhioBuckeye

  • Starter
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 1101
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3089 on: April 29, 2020, 09:37:08 AM »
One of the reason South Korea's tests/1M are lower than ours is that they started AGGRESSIVELY testing very early. Rather than let the virus spread unknowingly, whenever a positive case was found they would perform "contact tracing" to find out who you had been around in the recent past, and proactively go test THOSE people too, in order to try to arrest the spread before it could blow up.

According to worldometers they have over 600K tests now and only a little over 10K documented cases, a 60:1 ratio.

We now have just under 6M tests and a little over 1M documented cases, only a 6:1 ratio.

This is because we let this thing spread for a long time before anyone got serious about it, and even now we haven't followed South Korea's lead and attempted to do contact tracing and proactively look for where it might have spread when we find a confirmed case.
I don't remember the specifics of what it was or even where I read it, but one of the reasons that we don't follow the contact tracking model employed by the South Koreans is because Americans would not so freely allow such invasions into their privacy as the South Koreans demanded. Again, I don't remember where I read about this, but their contact tracing was pretty invasive. 

847badgerfan

  • Administrator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 25280
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3090 on: April 29, 2020, 09:38:10 AM »
I think it is nearly certain it came from a bat one way or the other, possibly via a pangolin as a zoonotic pathway.


And a month ago it was certain to have come from a shithole wet market.

I don't think anything is certain with this thing anymore. Poker players never show their cards.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71626
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3091 on: April 29, 2020, 09:39:05 AM »
RoK had done 270,000 tests in mid-March, out of 52 million population.

MrNubbz

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 17163
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3092 on: April 29, 2020, 09:44:31 AM »
Poker players never show their cards.
Specially the seedy ones with questionable intentions and windfall asperations
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

Cincydawg

  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 71626
  • Oracle of Piedmont Park
  • Liked:
Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #3093 on: April 29, 2020, 09:45:57 AM »
There is this notion that South Korea tested aggressively, and early, which may be true, but they did not test even a large percentage of their population early.  There is more to their success than just early testing.

If they had tested only a quarter of a percent of the population by mid-March, that is not to me a sign of wide spread testing.  I'm sure they tested folks who showed symptoms and then did contact tracing to the extent possible, not just rep sample testing.

I am beginning to think we will have to have a treatment with an antiviral that works well, not a vaccine, and not herd immunity.  

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.