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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
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longhorn320 · « **Reply #2968 on:** April 27, 2020, 04:37:48 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 04:25:53 PM

4300 workers in the Dakota City, NE facility

2 shifts for production - 3rd shift overnight for cleaning and maintenance

Dakota county NE has a pop of 20,000 and had 470 cases and 1 death

not sure the plant should close over these stats

maybe closing for a few days and doing a deep cleaning but not closing longer then that

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #2969 on:** April 27, 2020, 04:38:23 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on April 27, 2020, 03:47:52 PM

they could go to every other station, but that would cut production in half
I'd guess the issue is more with lockerooms, cafeterias, rest rooms, and other common areas than the work stations, but I don't know this

Yeah, I don't think many people are considering the normal physical bottlenecks our infrastructure has. Wanting to open this and that with social distancing is great....but it's most often structurally impossible.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #2970 on:** April 27, 2020, 04:39:32 PM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 04:37:48 PM

Dakota county NE has a pop of 20,000 and had 470 cases and 1 death

not sure the plant should close over these stats

maybe closing for a few days and doing a deep cleaning but not closing longer then that

I know you're not a fan of sickness and death, but you've got a lot of posts now seeming okay with it.

utee94 · « **Reply #2971 on:** April 27, 2020, 04:40:56 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 27, 2020, 04:38:23 PM

Yeah, I don't think many people are considering the normal physical bottlenecks our infrastructure has. Wanting to open this and that with social distancing is great....but it's most often structurally impossible.

Quite the contrary, I think a LOT of people are considering it. And then trying to come up with solutions to address it.

Especially in cases like this, where our nation's food supply is at risk.

Big Beef Tacosupreme · « **Reply #2972 on:** April 27, 2020, 04:42:40 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 27, 2020, 04:29:07 PM

Passed a million cases today nationally...

I'm a data guy...I can't help myself.

We will probably pass 60,000 deaths in the next 24-48 hours. That shows a death rate of about 6%. However, we know that there is a severe test shortage, and initial results from Iceland, USC, NY, and South Korea show a much lower death rate than that. This probably means there have been over 3M people infected.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #2973 on:** April 27, 2020, 04:46:28 PM »

I think a big mismanagement for Trump (wait, wait, here me out - not attacking him) and his coming out of this looking okay was the initial lack of massing testing. The earlier we tested as many people as possible, the earlier the lower death rate would have been widely known.

To be fair, this assumes his greatest concern is how good he looks for November.

I think he was shortsighted and wanting to keep reported cases low by not testing, which is fine on the surface. But the more 3-dimensional idea would be to get that important death rate % low. He didn't want to know it. He wasn't interested in knowing more.

Is that fair?

847badgerfan · « **Reply #2974 on:** April 27, 2020, 05:00:15 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on April 27, 2020, 04:46:28 PM

I think a big mismanagement for Trump (wait, wait, here me out - not attacking him) and his coming out of this looking okay was the initial lack of massing testing. The earlier we tested as many people as possible, the earlier the lower death rate would have been widely known.

To be fair, this assumes his greatest concern is how good he looks for November.

I think he was shortsighted and wanting to keep reported cases low by not testing, which is fine on the surface. But the more 3-dimensional idea would be to get that important death rate % low. He didn't want to know it. He wasn't interested in knowing more.

Is that fair?

Ummm...

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #2975 on:** April 27, 2020, 05:00:54 PM »

Quote from: Big Beef Tacosupreme on April 27, 2020, 04:42:40 PM

I'm a data guy...I can't help myself.

We will probably pass 60,000 deaths in the next 24-48 hours. That shows a death rate of about 6%. However, we know that there is a severe test shortage, and initial results from Iceland, USC, NY, and South Korea show a much lower death rate than that. This probably means there have been over 3M people infected.

I'm a data guy too... While this is a morbid subject, from a data science perspective it has been fascinating.

Obviously the death rate based on confirmed cases is nowhere near the true mortality. We've known from the start (and people haven't hidden the fact) that due to mild/asymptomatic cases, none of the "ultra scary" numbers the media threw out made sense.

Right now the few US antibody tests show a pretty wide array of results, and what that means for the true mortality rate is interesting.

CA shows somewhere in the realm of 40x unconfirmed to confirmed case ratio. If you applied that to the 6% death rate, you'd end up somewhere in the 0.15% true mortality. If you compare it to California's death rate (3.9%), it would bring you under 0.1% true mortality. If that rate is accurate, then we should let 'er rip and open the country up.

NY showed differently. Antibody testing only suggested a 10x ratio of unconfirmed to confirmed cases. That extrapolated out to somewhere in the range of 0.5-0.78% true mortality (depending on whether you include the "probable" cases from NYC). If that rate is accurate, then given how transmissible this appears to be, a let 'er rip response would be several hundred thousand more deaths, possibly in the 1M range depending on the total number of Americans who ended up contracting it.

South Korea was WAY out in front of this thing and has tested, and tested, and tested. With over 600K tests administered, they've only found 10,738 cases, and had 243 deaths. That's a 2.3% mortality rate, which is a lot higher than most predict is the true mortality rate. So it's expected that they have a much lower ratio of unconfirmed to confirmed cases based on their test rates, but without antibody testing we won't know who was missed. But if the true mortality rate was merely half of that, it would be devastating.

I wish we had better data all around, because we're making HUGE decisions about our economies and there are boatloads of unknowns.

longhorn320 · « **Reply #2976 on:** April 27, 2020, 05:03:07 PM »

Quote from: bwarbiany on April 27, 2020, 05:00:54 PM

I'm a data guy too... While this is a morbid subject, from a data science perspective it has been fascinating.

Obviously the death rate based on confirmed cases is nowhere near the true mortality. We've known from the start (and people haven't hidden the fact) that due to mild/asymptomatic cases, none of the "ultra scary" numbers the media threw out made sense.

Right now the few US antibody tests show a pretty wide array of results, and what that means for the true mortality rate is interesting.

CA shows somewhere in the realm of 40x unconfirmed to confirmed case ratio. If you applied that to the 6% death rate, you'd end up somewhere in the 0.15% true mortality. If you compare it to California's death rate (3.9%), it would bring you under 0.1% true mortality. If that rate is accurate, then we should let 'er rip and open the country up.

NY showed differently. Antibody testing only suggested a 10x ratio of unconfirmed to confirmed cases. That extrapolated out to somewhere in the range of 0.5-0.78% true mortality (depending on whether you include the "probable" cases from NYC). If that rate is accurate, then given how transmissible this appears to be, a let 'er rip response would be several hundred thousand more deaths, possibly in the 1M range depending on the total number of Americans who ended up contracting it.

South Korea was WAY out in front of this thing and has tested, and tested, and tested. With over 600K tests administered, they've only found 10,738 cases, and had 243 deaths. That's a 2.3% mortality rate, which is a lot higher than most predict is the true mortality rate. So it's expected that they have a much lower ratio of unconfirmed to confirmed cases based on their test rates, but without antibody testing we won't know who was missed. But if the true mortality rate was merely half of that, it would be devastating.

I wish we had better data all around, because we're making HUGE decisions about our economies and there are boatloads of unknowns.

did you see the latest antibody testing results from NY

Cincydawg · « **Reply #2977 on:** April 27, 2020, 05:19:24 PM »

Are any of these numbers reliable? I don't mean exact, I mean anywhere close to accurate?

Deaths? I thought that would be reliable, but then I'm not sure how many died of the virus undiagnosed, and how many died of something else in reality but perhaps had symptoms.

Confirmed illness? Confirmed how? Tested positive? Or they had symptoms? Is the test accurate? False pos/negs?

The country is past 56,527 now and running at 1,100 per day for the past couple of days, using their figures, with a million "confirmed", a mortality rate of 5.6%???

The "model" says 67,000 by June 1. That means the death rate per day should start dropping a lot and soon. And yes it has dropped apparently from over 2,000. I won't really be convinced we're easing until it drops below 500 reported, as I am taking these figures with a large grain.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #2978 on:** April 27, 2020, 05:23:47 PM »

Quote from: longhorn320 on April 27, 2020, 05:03:07 PM

did you see the latest antibody testing results from NY

I had not... I found this though from earlier today... https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/cuomo-outlines-reopening-roadmap-for-new-york-as-daily-deaths-hit-lowest-level-in-weeks/2390949/

Suggests that up to 2.9M New York State residents have contracted the virus.

Right now according to Worldometers, NY has 297,224 cases and 22,612 deaths.

22,612 / 297,224 = 7.6% mortality based on confirmed cases.
22,612 / 2,900,000 = 0.77% mortality rate based on this antibody testing.

Note that the flu is somewhere in the 0.1% mortality range, so this would be 7-8x more fatal than the flu.

Edit: I should point out that they believe somewhere near 25% of NYC residents are showing antibodies. That's not likely to "herd immunity" yet, but it's WAY higher than nearly anywhere else.

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #2979 on:** April 27, 2020, 05:32:50 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on April 27, 2020, 05:19:24 PM

Are any of these numbers reliable? I don't mean exact, I mean anywhere close to accurate?

Deaths? I thought that would be reliable, but then I'm not sure how many died of the virus undiagnosed, and how many died of something else in reality but perhaps had symptoms.

Confirmed illness? Confirmed how? Tested positive? Or they had symptoms? Is the test accurate? False pos/negs?

At some point you have to decide whether you're going to have a rough trust in the numbers or not.

I'm assuming that our health care workers, our nation's coroners, and the people surrounding them, are trying their best to make the best judgement they can on how to count these things.

Does that mean you need some error bars on all these numbers? Sure. But I don't think the difference is anywhere more than +/- 10%, and probably MUCH less than that because you'd expect some positive errors in some locales to be balanced by negative errors on others.

Quote

The country is past 56,527 now and running at 1,100 per day for the past couple of days, using their figures, with a million "confirmed", a mortality rate of 5.6%???

There's been a pattern to the data on death rates. Sunday (and frequently Monday) have been low, followed by Tuesday being high. We saw big peaks in confirmed cases on Fri/Sat, which makes me think tomorrows numbers for death rates will jump too.

Quote

The "model" says 67,000 by June 1. That means the death rate per day should start dropping a lot and soon. And yes it has dropped apparently from over 2,000. I won't really be convinced we're easing until it drops below 500 reported, as I am taking these figures with a large grain.

I don't like the IHME model. It's bounced all over the place. It went from 80K to 93K back to 80K to 60K to now 67K, but there's no way we won't blow past the 67K within a week or so. And with various parts of the country reopening already, we could start seeing some spikes.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #2980 on:** April 27, 2020, 05:46:27 PM »

If Georgia is reopening too early, the spikes would not happen for 2-3 weeks, minimum, probably longer. And in reality nearly everything here is still shut down.

And if a spike happens, it won't really nudge the national number that much for obvious reasons, 3% of the population etc.

I suspect too much will be read into the GA experiment either way.

utee94 · « **Reply #2981 on:** April 27, 2020, 06:09:51 PM »

Texas also begins a slow reopening, starting on Friday. Restaurants will be allowed to open at 25% occupancy capacity. Retailers, too.

No haircuts yet, though. So my shaggy mane continued unchecked.

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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

longhorn320

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OrangeAfroMan

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OrangeAfroMan

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utee94

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Big Beef Tacosupreme

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OrangeAfroMan

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847badgerfan

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betarhoalphadelta

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longhorn320

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Cincydawg

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betarhoalphadelta

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betarhoalphadelta

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Cincydawg

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utee94

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