The models have done their best to iterate and incorporate new findings. So they DID include goals and targets and cutoffs for "if we achieve 50% reduction in contact then we will incur X amount of risk" or "at 75% reduction in contact we have Y amount of risk" and so on.
But like CD says, there was so little information when formulating those risk scenarios, they weren't much more than a shot in the dark.
And we're still climbing the infection/case/ICU/death curve in many locations, so we still don't really know. What if deaths don't taper off as they're currently modeling, in many regions? What if they plateau and just stay there-- which might indicate that our current level of contact reduction has arrived at a steady-state for transmission and symptom development?
We don't have ANY of those answers yet. The data are being fed back into the models, the information gets better, the approximations should improve, and hopefully that gives us a more positive outlook.
