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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9604 on: October 20, 2020, 10:20:30 PM »
I deleted OAM's blatantly political post, and all responses to it.

As stated previously, please keep this thread clear of that stuff.  There are other places to discuss it.

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847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9605 on: October 21, 2020, 06:34:16 AM »
I kinda liked my response to it, but I get it.
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9606 on: October 21, 2020, 08:32:51 AM »
I kinda liked my response to it, but I get it.
Same here bud.  But when you're cutting out cancer, sometimes some healthy cells go with it.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9607 on: October 21, 2020, 08:35:24 AM »
Georgia remains fairly flat in all indications, not flat at a great level, but better than in June.

I think personal actions are "flat" as well.  We had dinner last night at our French restaurant dining on the patio, it was wonderful.  Our waiter has a very pregnant wife so we mask up when he comes by.  I worry a bit about his contact with diners, but most diners respect distance that I've seen.

The son of the owners chatted with us about how to heat the patio to allow outside dining next month.  The other good news is the place was near full, the parking lot was packed.  We're hoping they can survive.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9608 on: October 21, 2020, 08:46:50 AM »
Man, I think I've mentioned my friend who's an expat in the Czech Republic.  A couple of months ago back in June/July, he was posting to social media, pictures of himself and his partner, going to pubs and restaurants all over their town of Brno, with themselves and all other bystanders completely maskless, both outside and inside.  When asked by our mutual American friends why, he said that they'd already beaten the virus back in Feb/March and life was back to completely normal.

Now that numbers are climbing all over Europe, I thought about what my expat friend had said, and wondered how the Czechs were weathering the storm.  I just took a look at their COVID numbers on Worldometers, and wow, they're really getting hammered.  But the unusual thing, is that unlike their European neighbors who are suffering high case counts but relatively low death totals, the Czechs' death totals are also increasing dramatically.  At this point, they're well above their spring peaks, in both cases and deaths.

I can speculate that their cases are increasing for similar reasons to the rest of Europe, but what I don't understand, is why their death totals have seen a larger increase than most other Euro countries.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/


847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9609 on: October 21, 2020, 08:48:48 AM »
What is their health care system like?
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utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9610 on: October 21, 2020, 08:51:12 AM »
What is their health care system like?

I really have no idea.  They're a fairly progressive country like most of the rest of Europe, but their time behind the iron curtain decades ago, might still have an impact on them.

Oh, and I'll also note that Czech's numbers are still quite small in absolute terms, even normalizing for population.  But I was just looking at the relative difference between how the first wave hit them, compared to how the second wave is manifesting.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9611 on: October 21, 2020, 09:40:35 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/21/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html


A bleak prediction of the future, but my question is why the article basically talks about how Europe reacted better than we did with shut downs when they are doing worse now.

I don't get it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Spain plus France plus UK reported well over 100,000 new cases yesterday,  the US 62,000.  If "we" point to the US as having handled this poorly, fine, but what about Europe?  It's going really bad over there.

Populations France 65 mil, UK, 68 mil, Spain 47 mil, US 327 mil, about half our population together and almost double the newly reported cases, but they are held out as paragons?



« Last Edit: October 21, 2020, 09:46:23 AM by Cincydawg »

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9612 on: October 21, 2020, 10:13:58 AM »
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/21/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html


A bleak prediction of the future, but my question is why the article basically talks about how Europe reacted better than we did with shut downs when they are doing worse now.

I don't get it.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Spain plus France plus UK reported well over 100,000 new cases yesterday,  the US 62,000.  If "we" point to the US as having handled this poorly, fine, but what about Europe?  It's going really bad over there.

Populations France 65 mil, UK, 68 mil, Spain 47 mil, US 327 mil, about half our population together and almost double the newly reported cases, but they are held out as paragons?





As we noted way back at the beginning of all of this in March, for an appropriate comparison, you can't measure the US against any single country in Europe. 

The combined populations of UK, France, Spain, Germany, and Italy, are roughly the same as the USA.  It's also more representative from a land area perspective, and additionally, the different ways in which those countries chose to approach the pandemic, is more analogous to the different ways the individual states approached it here in the USA.


utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9613 on: October 21, 2020, 10:20:15 AM »
Bottom line, the area under the curve is going to remain the same.  The steps we take to reduce transmission are delaying tactics, nothing more and nothing less.  Europe didn't exhaust their area under the curve in the first wave, and it's back.  There's just no stopping it, the science of the virology is inevitable.

There is value in those delaying tactics though, especially if we can manage to produce an effective vaccine that moves us closer to herd immunity and actually diminishes the area under the curve.

But if no effective vaccine is produced, then the area under the curve remains the same, and the world can't sustain the same level of shut-down as it currently is, forever.  Beyond the devastating economic implications, the much longer-term aspects of mental health, productive education, and dozens of other factors, dictate that we'll end up doing more harm than good, with continued shutdowns/distancing.


Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9614 on: October 21, 2020, 10:23:12 AM »
The combined populations of UK, France, Spain, Germany, and Italy, are roughly the same as the USA.  It's also more representative from a land area perspective, and additionally, the different ways in which those countries chose to approach the pandemic, is more analogous to the different ways the individual states approached it here in the USA.
Good points, and I somewhat cherry picked the three worst countries in my post, which I hate doing, my bad.

longhorn320

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They won't let me give blood anymore. The burnt orange color scares the hell out of the doctors.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9616 on: October 21, 2020, 10:26:39 AM »
Good points, and I somewhat cherry picked the three worst countries in my post, which I hate doing, my bad.
Sure, but even though Germany did well in the first wave, and Italy was more tightly buttoned up than its neighbors for a while through the summer break, both of those countries are now experiencing significant second waves.  Adding them into the totals causes their case numbers to increase further.

And THAT is the appropriate comparison, if you're trying to use raw numbers to compare the USA to Europe.  

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #9617 on: October 21, 2020, 10:45:19 AM »
I expect selected targeted vaccine use in December, health care and other critical workers.

 

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