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Topic: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas

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Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10570 on: November 13, 2020, 08:56:54 AM »
One hope I have is that our scientists have learned a lot about coronavirus vaccine approaches.  The Pfizer approach is "simply" a specific RNA fragment.  I think that's pretty cool, presuming it works.  It does have some side effects apparently, folks can feel "down" for a day or three.  I presume that is your immune system recognizing "foreign" and responding.  (I had a rather severe but short lived response to the second Shingrix vaccine.)

Perhaps with all the money thrown at this effort some broader good will accrue.  

My worry is that the next pandemic may be more lethal than this one.  We've talked about something as contagious with a latency period but a 10% mortality rate.

Not good.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10571 on: November 13, 2020, 09:15:36 AM »
One hope I have is that our scientists have learned a lot about coronavirus vaccine approaches.  The Pfizer approach is "simply" a specific RNA fragment.  I think that's pretty cool, presuming it works.  It does have some side effects apparently, folks can feel "down" for a day or three.  I presume that is your immune system recognizing "foreign" and responding.  (I had a rather severe but short lived response to the second Shingrix vaccine.)

Perhaps with all the money thrown at this effort some broader good will accrue. 

My worry is that the next pandemic may be more lethal than this one.  We've talked about something as contagious with a latency period but a 10% mortality rate.

Not good.

Yes that would be far worse.

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10572 on: November 13, 2020, 09:26:37 AM »
Can we get through this pandemic, before we start talking about the next one? Right now, that's fiction.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10573 on: November 13, 2020, 09:29:17 AM »
Well, I guess.

You know what I miss?  I miss "pandemic traffic" from April/May.  I could get all the way across town in maybe 10-15 minutes.  Now all of those annoying a-holes are back on my roads clogging them up unnecessarily.


MrNubbz

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10574 on: November 13, 2020, 09:52:35 AM »
Grrrr, name-calling! 

El Paso is exporting dead bodies. Not in Ohio, but it would be the 2nd-largest city there, behind Columbus.  You talk about economics, but seem to think the anecdotal evidence in your personal sight-line is all the data you need. 

Call me some more names and look silly.  Meanwhile, 1,400 more people are going to die tomorrow (OR WILL THEY?!?).
Save your name calling lament I'm sure the board is recoiling in horror becaus anything directed at you is unprovoked,right? :D .People already in severe compromised health issues .Many already in line with hospice or very susceptible with stage 4 cancer,asthma,COPD,Lung Cancer,kidney failure,bed ridden or recently ambulatory.I know of one,a 63 yr old friend who unfortunately wasn't following protol and had already had blood clots removed from his lungs 12 yrs ago.Everyone I've talked to know of someone who got tagged but for many wasn't really proven because the hospitals chasing lost revenue from missed surgeries because they are keeping beds open waiting for surges.Nobody has said throw caution to the wind.It is second nature for almost everyone to follow procedure.For the most part people have been dragging the company line here and elsewhere

  For those of us forced to fend for ourselves wrecking the economy isn't worth the pittance of safety we've received in exchange
« Last Edit: November 13, 2020, 10:08:55 AM by MrNubbz »
Suburbia:Where they tear out the trees & then name streets after them.

GopherRock

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10575 on: November 13, 2020, 09:54:44 AM »
I don't think it will be around forever. Once the vaccine is in place and gains a strong hold, this thing could be eradicated.

Much depends on the rest of the world here. We need to share whatever we come up with.
That's what they said about the measles, too. Then some dumbass got the chiropractors to tell their patients to stop vaccinating their kids, and it's back with a damn vengeance. 

847badgerfan

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10576 on: November 13, 2020, 09:56:11 AM »
I don't get why people don't vaccinate their kids.
U RAH RAH! WIS CON SIN!

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10577 on: November 13, 2020, 10:05:45 AM »
I don't get why people don't vaccinate their kids.
Because Bill Gates.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10578 on: November 13, 2020, 10:17:57 AM »
We know of many coronaviruses that return year after year.  We know of many influenza viruses that return year after year.  I see no reason to think this will ever be eradicated.

I certainly hope it can be, but as I've been told over and over on this thread, hope is not a strategy.

And neither is asking humans to isolate from one another for a year or more.

Time to start being practical and realistic about how to handle this.  Time to start using our vast array of technological resources to our advantage.  Time to start using our tremendous knowledge of process improvement to our advantage.  Time to stop telling people they're not allowed to live their lives, and instead create ways to enable people to live their lives.
As I've said, we have two options. A vaccine, or natural herd immunity. 

A vaccine might not be perfect, or permanent, but it's a way to provide immunity and at least get this under control, and perhaps if the virus is with us "forever" to mitigate the effects of future outbreaks. 

Natural herd immunity, I'm convinced, is the way to another 1M plus deaths in the US. So it's our plan Q at this point. Plans A-P are all the vaccines being worked on. 

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10579 on: November 13, 2020, 10:20:21 AM »
As I've said, we have two options. A vaccine, or natural herd immunity.

A vaccine might not be perfect, or permanent, but it's a way to provide immunity and at least get this under control, and perhaps if the virus is with us "forever" to mitigate the effects of future outbreaks.

Natural herd immunity, I'm convinced, is the way to another 1M plus deaths in the US. So it's our plan Q at this point. Plans A-P are all the vaccines being worked on.
I don't consider it a "plan" at all, simply an inevitable outcome. 

We should probably start some other plans though, that don't rely on the hope of a vaccine, and don't expect people to live in isolation indefinitely-- because that bit is already not working.  It was never a long term solution.  It could never have been.

Cincydawg

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10580 on: November 13, 2020, 10:40:03 AM »
I remain amused at the concept of "a plan", as if some magical "plan" could really have deterred this significantly (short of long term shut down).

I would like to have heard more consistent national emphasis on distancing and masks, but that is guidance, not a plan.

A crash program to develop vaccines is part of a plan, and we did that apparently.

It was to our detriment that this got politicized, but that was inevitable.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10581 on: November 13, 2020, 10:55:31 AM »
We have significant technological resources we could bring to bear. We just haven't done so.

Back in March/April, we had a huge number of American (and global) manufacturing and engineering firms committing tremendous energy and significant finances toward developing and manufacturing more, better, less costly ventilators.  We now have scores of thousands of those things lying around unused, because as it turns out, in the case of this disease, they're not particularly good at keeping sick people alive.

But imagine if we had instead focused all of those resources on developing more and better and cheaper indoor ventilation/filtration systems?

Or brought to bear our knowledge of process flow, and improved the ways we move people through buildings.

And likely a thousand other ideas that smart people could have come up with, but simply haven't, because the only two levers anyone seems willing to pull are distancing, and pursuit of a vaccine.


betarhoalphadelta

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10582 on: November 13, 2020, 10:57:08 AM »
I don't consider it a "plan" at all, simply an inevitable outcome. 

We should probably start some other plans though, that don't rely on the hope of a vaccine, and don't expect people to live in isolation indefinitely-- because that bit is already not working.  It was never a long term solution.  It could never have been.
I know you've talked about indoor air filtration, but I doubt that will even do much to reduce R0 if you have people congregating without masks. 

Other than that, I don't see any plans that don't involve continued distancing until we get to a vaccine, or failing a vaccine, get to natural herd immunity.

I don't even understand what those plans could look like. 

Which is to say, I have to think this is one of those situations where alternate plans existed, someone would be saying something. But they're not, and with as many people in the world looking at this as there are, makes me think alternate plans won't exist.

utee94

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Re: Coronavirus discussion and Quarantine ideas
« Reply #10583 on: November 13, 2020, 11:04:32 AM »
I know you've talked about indoor air filtration, but I doubt that will even do much to reduce R0 if you have people congregating without masks.

Other than that, I don't see any plans that don't involve continued distancing until we get to a vaccine, or failing a vaccine, get to natural herd immunity.

I don't even understand what those plans could look like.

Which is to say, I have to think this is one of those situations where alternate plans existed, someone would be saying something. But they're not, and with as many people in the world looking at this as there are, makes me think alternate plans won't exist.
We've seen detailed, reconstructed diagrams of the way this thing spread in a couple of different restaurants, based on where Patient Zero was seated next to an air return, and the way the ensuing outflow from vents cascaded across table after table of Patients 1 through X.  Just imagine if a submicron air filter had been in place, imagine the limit to the spread in that one restaurant, and then all the people infected at second touch, and third touch, etc.

I've also read numerous accounts of how airplanes are considered largely safe, due to their filtration systems.

So no, I'm not going to agree that there's simply nothing we can do to help, regarding air filtration and improved ventilation for indoor buildings.

Like a mask-- in fact EXACTLY like a mask-- it's not a guaranteed solution.  But it can certainly be helpful.

I don't think we're getting an effective vaccine.  It would be nice, for sure.  But that's not the basket where we can afford to place our eggs.

We're smart people.  We need to start doing smart things.

Living in isolation indefinitely isn't smart, and it's already failing miserably.  

 

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