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Topic: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large

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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #546 on: July 19, 2021, 05:29:07 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 19, 2021, 05:23:54 PM
The competitive advantage issue for the Tide and Buckeyes is that the BEST QB's and the BEST Linebackers and whatnot will get more money at Bama/tOSU than they would at Vandy/Illinois/Memphis/Cincy.  My guess is that a LOT of HS recruits have an optimistic (or inflated) view of themselves and will *THINK* that they are going to be superstars so they'll want to go to Bama/tOSU because there is more money in that for the superstars.  Some may actually cost themselves money because you'd probably get a lot more NIL money as a starter at Vandy/Illinois or even Memphis/Cincy than you would as a bench warmer at Bama/tOSU. 
I thought about that aspect...

Rondale Moore, for example. Does he have more NIL value as a superstar at Purdue than he does as just a slot receiver / gadget player at Texas? 

Will we occasionally see players choosing to be the big fish in a small pond because that's better for NIL than going to the helmet and blending in?
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FearlessF

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #547 on: July 19, 2021, 06:09:38 PM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 19, 2021, 05:23:54 PM
It is plainly obvious that Memphis/Cincinnati aren't going to be able to keep up with Bama/tOSU, I agree with you that far. 

The complication, I think, is that Vanderbilt and Illinois aren't going to be able to keep up either. 

Therefore, it isn't simply a question of cutting the G5 loose, the split you are talking about is basically the dozen or so helmets vs everyone else. 


I'm thinking it is going to be a while before we really see the ramifications of this. 
sounds like the 80s
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Cincydawg

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #548 on: July 19, 2021, 06:31:49 PM »
How often in the recent past have G5 teams ended in the top ten of the AP before bowl games?  I THINK it's every couple of years or so.  At times they get smoked in a bowl game, and at times they don't.

UCF
Cincy
Memphis?
Hawaii a while back
Houston?
Laville before?
Eastern Michigan?

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Brutus Buckeye

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #549 on: July 19, 2021, 06:50:31 PM »
A G5 would have to run the table and collect a noteworthy P5 scalp along the way; not a playoff contender necessarily, but it can't be Kansas, Wake Forest or Rutgers as your P5 win. Maybe a fallen giant like Tennessee or Nebraska would be best path. Taking down a big brand looks good, and both would be winnable games. 

More often than not a team that pulls off a monster upset in September will fail to run the table in their league; AKA "pulling a Toledo." 
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medinabuckeye1

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #550 on: July 19, 2021, 11:02:58 PM »
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 19, 2021, 06:31:49 PM
How often in the recent past have G5 teams ended in the top ten of the AP before bowl games?  I THINK it's every couple of years or so.  At times they get smoked in a bowl game, and at times they don't.

UCF
Cincy
Memphis?
Hawaii a while back
Houston?
Laville before?
Eastern Michigan?
I did this for the CFP era a few pages ago.  Skipping 2020 (because it was a screwy shortened year), in the CFP era the top G5 Champion has been:
  • #8 UCF in 2018
  • #12 UCF in 2017
  • #15 WMU in 2016
  • #17 Memphis in 2019
  • #18 Houston in 2015
  • #20 BoiseSt in 2014

So in those six years you had only one that would have been anything other than the #12 seed but the one exception would have gotten a home game.  
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bayareabadger

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #551 on: July 20, 2021, 12:04:53 AM »

Quote from: Gigem on July 19, 2021, 04:37:13 PM
The thing that most of you are missing is that the whole of the NCAA will be soon changing as the divide between the have's and the have nots will get bigger and more insurmountable.  The whole structure of D1 D1-A or FCS FBS or whatever silliness they have now will go away and there will be a permanent split. 

The amount of money flowing into college sports is about to accelerate greatly, and that will affect recruiting.  The schools that can pay the most, either through alumni with NIL dollars or other sources will soon separate themselves from the mid-to smaller schools that can't draw those dollars. 

My belief is that this whole G5 vs P5 will be about a 6-8 year period, after that we will go to a super league where only the biggest schools with the most money/boosters will compete with each other.  There's simply not enough players to sustain the middle/low tier schools to compete. 
Aren't the gaps already pretty massive? 
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OrangeAfroMan

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #552 on: July 20, 2021, 12:34:38 AM »
The best opportunity for G5 programs to really make a statement was taken away from them:  the year "they" made Boise State play TCU in the Fiesta Bowl.
#3 TCU from the MWC vs #6 Boise State from the WAC.  
They could have faced off against big-boy programs in different bowls and "they" didn't allow it.  They played each other and it sucked.
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betarhoalphadelta

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #553 on: July 20, 2021, 12:54:09 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 20, 2021, 12:34:38 AM
The best opportunity for G5 programs to really make a statement was taken away from them:  the year "they" made Boise State play TCU in the Fiesta Bowl.
#3 TCU from the MWC vs #6 Boise State from the WAC. 
They could have faced off against big-boy programs in different bowls and "they" didn't allow it.  They played each other and it sucked.
Yep. The "Separate but Equal" bowl. 
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Gigem

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #554 on: July 20, 2021, 07:56:48 AM »
Quote from: FearlessF on July 19, 2021, 04:46:44 PM
we've been talking about the demise of the NCAA for 20 years

hasn't happened yet
The NCAA will be around for a long time. It’s not the end. It’s the beginning of something new. 
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Gigem

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #555 on: July 20, 2021, 08:02:44 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 19, 2021, 05:23:54 PM
It is plainly obvious that Memphis/Cincinnati aren't going to be able to keep up with Bama/tOSU, I agree with you that far. 

The complication, I think, is that Vanderbilt and Illinois aren't going to be able to keep up either. 

Therefore, it isn't simply a question of cutting the G5 loose, the split you are talking about is basically the dozen or so helmets vs everyone else. 

Also, I'm not sure how big of a change this ultimately will be.  Endorsement type deals (NIL) aren't going to mean BIG money for most players even at a place like tOSU.  Instead, you are going to see big money for the starting QB's and a few other well known starters at Bama, tOSU, etc.  Then, I assume, the gaming systems will either have to come up with some way to compensate all CFB players or else drop ID's.  Who knows how that will work out.  For everybody else (even at Bama/tOSU) there isn't going to be a lot of money (I think). 

The competitive advantage issue for the Tide and Buckeyes is that the BEST QB's and the BEST Linebackers and whatnot will get more money at Bama/tOSU than they would at Vandy/Illinois/Memphis/Cincy.  My guess is that a LOT of HS recruits have an optimistic (or inflated) view of themselves and will *THINK* that they are going to be superstars so they'll want to go to Bama/tOSU because there is more money in that for the superstars.  Some may actually cost themselves money because you'd probably get a lot more NIL money as a starter at Vandy/Illinois or even Memphis/Cincy than you would as a bench warmer at Bama/tOSU. 

I'm thinking it is going to be a while before we really see the ramifications of this. 
The Vanderbilts and Illinois never could keep up with the big boys. Even in their best years. Very few of the casual sports fans even realize that Vanderbilt is even in the SEC. I think it’s well understood that it’s more of an academic thing, or maybe a perceived prestige thing to be included in the Conference. 

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FearlessF

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #556 on: July 20, 2021, 08:31:22 AM »
Quote from: Gigem on July 20, 2021, 07:56:48 AM
The NCAA will be around for a long time. It’s not the end. It’s the beginning of something new.
something new where the Pres makes MORE than 3 million
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FearlessF

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #557 on: July 20, 2021, 08:32:41 AM »
Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 20, 2021, 12:34:38 AM
The best opportunity for G5 programs to really make a statement was taken away from them:  the year "they" made Boise State play TCU in the Fiesta Bowl.
#3 TCU from the MWC vs #6 Boise State from the WAC. 
They could have faced off against big-boy programs in different bowls and "they" didn't allow it.  They played each other and it sucked.
the 12-team playoff is the answer.  They will get some shots at the big-boys
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Gigem

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #558 on: July 20, 2021, 09:39:58 AM »
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 19, 2021, 05:23:54 PM


The complication, I think, is that Vanderbilt and Illinois aren't going to be able to keep up either. 

But in reality, how do you know that Vanderbilt can't keep up?  I really don't know much about it other than it seems to be a school with affluent students and alumni.  Maybe this whole NIL thing will work in counterintuitive ways where some of the smaller programs that have means (via rich alumni) can actually draw some good players?  I mean, the athletic department at the Bama's and Georgia's of the world certainly have money, but now private individuals can pump money directly into the hands of the players?  

Certainly food for thought.  
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Cincydawg

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #559 on: July 20, 2021, 10:06:58 AM »

  • #8 UCF in 2018
  • #12 UCF in 2017
  • #15 WMU in 2016
  • #17 Memphis in 2019
  • #18 Houston in 2015
  • #20 BoiseSt in 2014


So, it's going to be rare to have a G5 anywhere but 12 playing 5.  So, 5 gets a kind of "tune up game".  Advantage or not?




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