In September we see G5/FCS upsets over P5 every week.
Those suggesting that they aren't going to ever win in the playoffs are arguing against the copious amount of data that we have already collected on this matter, with a bunch of hot air and mental gymnastics about how none of the data counts because teams don't try hard enough or some such.
Then they adamantly insist that their "logic" on this matter is so obvious and indisputable, that we should be basing all of our decisions on it, instead of the actual copious amounts of data that has already been collected to the contrary.
It is kind of strange.
We do see G5/FCS upsets over P5 in September but how many of those are upsets of one of that season's top10 P5 teams? VERY few.
We aren't talking here about a G5 taking out a bad or even middling P5 we are talking about a game between one of the best G5's and one of the best P5's. How many of THOSE upsets have we seen? The first possible example that comes to my mind is BoiseSt's Statue of Liberty miracle upset of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.
That was the 2006 season and Boise State that year was possibly the best ever G5. They finished 13-0:
- One win over and FCS team
- Eight wins over WAC foes
- Two wins over mediocre MWC foes
- Two quality wins over P5 teams, OrSU and Oklahoma.
The win over Oregon State might actually be more impressive than the win over Oklahoma because it didn't take a miracle in OT. They pounded OrSU 42-14 and the Beavers were pretty good that year finishing 10-4.
Oklahoma was pretty good that year but not really NC material. They finished 11-3 with the following losses:
- 34-33 on the road to a mediocre Oregon team
- 28-10 to Texas at a neutral site
- 43-42 in OT to Boise St in the Fiesta Bowl.
Their best win was 21-7 over a 9-5 Nebraska team in the B12CG. Heading into that Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma was ranked #7 and Boise St was ranked #9. Oklahoma outgained BoiseSt 407-377, dominated TOP 20:32-16:08, and had more first downs 23-16 but Oklahoma committed FIVE turnovers to BoiseSt's 3.
Oklahoma led 35-28 and had BoiseSt backed into a 4th and 18 at the 50 with just 0:07 remaining. BoiseSt then pulled off a miraculous hook-and-lateral to convert the 4th down and score a game tying TD. Then in OT BoiseSt pulled off a miraculous statue-of-liberty run for the game winning 2pt conversion.
The bottom line is that this was an EXTREMELY unusually good G5 team and they played a good but not great P5 champion. Then that P5 champion didn't have a good game and committed five turnovers and BoiseSt converted two miraculous plays and they needed all of that to win by one point in OT. That doesn't suggest that this feat will be frequently replicated, it suggests the opposite. It suggests, as I said upthread that the G5 Champions will occasionally manage to knock off their first round opponent but they'll be lucky if they win a Quarterfinal every couple decades at best.