header pic

Perhaps the BEST B1G Forum anywhere, here at College Football Fan Site, CFB51!!!

The 'Old' CFN/Scout Crowd- Enjoy Civil discussion, game analytics, in depth player and coaching 'takes' and discussing topics surrounding the game. You can even have your own free board, all you have to do is ask!!!

Anyone is welcomed and encouraged to join our FREE site and to take part in our community- a community with you- the user, the fan, -and the person- will be protected from intrusive actions and with a clean place to interact.


Author

Topic: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large

 (Read 48217 times)

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 14593
  • Liked:
Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #476 on: July 15, 2021, 10:42:57 AM »
Like Brutus said, OSU won a national championship and beat a .500 Cincy team 23-19
OSU also went 13-1 a few years ago after losing 49-20 to a Purdue team that finished 6-7 with a horrific blowout loss in their bowl. 

Yes, I realize that Purdue score is not relevant to a G5 discussion...

...but I just like saying it. :72:

Brutus Buckeye

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12104
  • Liked:
Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #477 on: July 15, 2021, 10:43:59 AM »
Like Brutus said, OSU won a national championship and beat a .500 Cincy team 23-19

If that game happened today Darian Scott gets ejected for targeting when he ear holed QB Gino Guidulgi, which caused the fumble that set up the Craig Krenzel go ahead TD at the end of the game.

Instead Cincy would keep the ball, get a bunch of yards and a first down on the penalty, run out the clock, and win the game. 

ELA

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 22878
  • Liked:
Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #478 on: July 15, 2021, 10:49:52 AM »
OSU also went 13-1 a few years ago after losing 49-20 to a Purdue team that finished 6-7 with a horrific blowout loss in their bowl.

Yes, I realize that Purdue score is not relevant to a G5 discussion...

...but I just like saying it. :72:
Who immediately turned around and made everyone think Rocky Lombardi was a great quarterback

bayareabadger

  • Legend
  • ****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 9368
  • Liked:
Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #479 on: July 15, 2021, 10:57:04 AM »
Like Brutus said, OSU won a national championship and beat a .500 Cincy team 23-19
Went to OT with 5-7 Illinois too.

Brutus Buckeye

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 12104
  • Liked:
Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #480 on: July 15, 2021, 11:24:41 AM »
In September we see G5/FCS upsets over P5 every week. 

Those suggesting that they aren't going to ever win in the playoffs are arguing against the copious amount of data that we have already collected on this matter, with a bunch of hot air and mental gymnastics about how none of the data counts because teams don't try hard enough or some such. 

Then they adamantly insist that their "logic" on this matter is so obvious and indisputable, that we should be basing all of our decisions on it, instead of the actual copious amounts of data that has already been collected to the contrary. 

It is kind of strange. 

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 45728
  • Liked:
Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #481 on: July 15, 2021, 11:54:12 AM »
oh, G5s will win a couple of first round games, but the chances of following up in the 2nd and/or 3rd rounds is slimmer than than being killed by the vaccine
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

medinabuckeye1

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 10664
  • Liked:
Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #482 on: July 15, 2021, 12:06:04 PM »
OSU fandom is different from other helmets imo, due to the consistency.

The Buckeyes drive it 250 yds down the middle of the fairway every season. Sometimes they miss the upshot or fail to sink the putt, but they rarely slice one into the woods off the tee.

A school like USC may have the higher ceiling, they have the ability to drive it 300 yds down the fairway on the right year, but more often than not they are slicing it into the woods.
We have discussed this many times before and Ohio State is EASILY the most consistent helmet over the last ~100 years but it is interesting that you chose USC as your contrast because they have a good argument for #2.  

I looked at all the "helmet" teams and compiled their rolling 10-year winning percentages for each 10-year period from 1927-1936 through 2011-2020.  Sorted by best 10-year period they are:
  • .9245 Oklahoma - from 1949-1958 they went 97-7-2
  • .9130 Alabama - from 2011-2020 they went 126-12
  • .8917 MiamiFL - from 1985-1994 they went 107-13
  • .8911 Florida State - from 1991-2000 they went 110-13-1
  • .8810 Nebraska - from 1992-2001 they went 111-15
  • .8763 Notre Dame - from 1940-1949 they went 82-9-6
  • .8705 Clemson - from 2011-2020 they went 121-18
  • .8615 Ohio State - from 2011-2020 they went 112-18
  • .8553 Michigan - from 1969-1978 (Bo's first 10 years) they went 96-15-3
  • .8548 Tennessee - from 1937-1946 they went 77-14-2
  • .8534 Penn State - from 1968-1977 they went 99-17
  • .8527 Texas - from 2000-2009 they went 110-19
  • .8333 USC - from 1972-1981 they went 98-18-4
  • .8200 Florida - from 1990-1999 they went 102-22-1
  • .8106 LSU - from 2003-2012 they went 107-25


Ohio State's current decade is their best (same for Bama and Clemson) and Ohio State is in the middle of this group.  

Here they are sorted by worst 10-year period:
  • .6318 Ohio State - from 1943-1952 they went 54-30-7
  • .5542 USC - from 1991-2000 they went 65-52-3
  • .5112 Oklahoma - from 1927-1936 they went 39-37-13
  • .5103 Texas - from 1931-1940 they went 47-45-5
  • .5094 Notre Dame - from 2007-2016 they went  54-52
  • .4918 Tennessee - from 2011-2020 they went 60-62
  • .4947 Michigan - from 1958-1967 they went 45-46-3
  • .4762 LSU - from 1948-1957 they went 46-51-8
  • .4757 Alabama - from 1998-2007 they went What is amazing about Bama is how close together their best and worst are.  
  • .4660 Florida State - from 1952-1961 they went 46-53-4
  • .4458 Penn State - from 1928-1937 they went 35-43-4
  • .4159 Clemson - from 1967-1976 they went 43-61-3
  • .3876 Florida - from 1937-1946 they went 33-53-3
  • .3738 MiamiFl - from from 1968-1977 they went 40-67 Similar to Bama, their best and worst were very close together.  
  • .3370 Nebraska - from 1942-1951 they went 30-60-2

Ohio State's lead here is HUMONGOUS.  The #1 Buckeyes are about as far ahead of #2 USC as #2 USC is ahead of #8 LSU.  The Buckeyes have had bad years here and there but in the last ~100 years the Buckeyes haven't had a bad decade.  

Note that only tOSU, USC, Oklahoma, Texas, and Notre Dame haven't had a sub .500 decade in the last ~100 years.  Every other team has.  Bama, FSU, Miami, and Nebraska are #2-#5 in best decades so they all have had REALLY good decades (better than anything tOSU has had) but all four have also had REALLY bad, sub .500 decades.  

FearlessF

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 45728
  • Liked:
Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #483 on: July 15, 2021, 12:26:55 PM »
it might be interesting to know these team's records vs G5 programs
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 21831
  • Liked:
Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #484 on: July 15, 2021, 12:58:16 PM »
Well, since 1989, Florida is 69-1 vs G5 and FCS teams.  That includes 2 losing seasons by the Gators, some 7-5 and 8-5 seasons, and some 9-4 seasons (ie - some NOT great teams).  If you want to take FCS out of it, Florida is like 62-0 vs G5.  If you want to pare it down even more precisely, top-12 ranked Florida teams are obviously undefeated against G5 teams and the average score is about 45-3. 
Putting a G5 team up against a top-12 team with the ultimate prize up for grabs is going to yield ugliness.  Remember back to the BCS formula and their changing it so teams won't run up the score?  That was cute.  Wait till they see how long the O-fer is with the G5 'champ' matchup. 
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 21831
  • Liked:
Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #485 on: July 15, 2021, 01:01:48 PM »


 They'll just quit. They'll beg out, make their own playoff and save themselves from your "worst" prediction. It's not actually going to happen, but it's the perfect out if it did.

I think this will eventually happen.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

  • Stats Porn
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 21831
  • Liked:
Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #486 on: July 15, 2021, 01:10:11 PM »
I feel like some of you didn't play football at all.
Playing a game in which you have no hope of winning SUCKS.
Being dominated sucks (unless you're into that sort of thing).
Working your ass off, giving your all every play just to score a FG, and then the other teams scores a TD in 2 plays sucks.
.
I see regular season, OOC games being cited here and it makes me laugh.  When Cincinnati almost beats OSU, it's irrelevant, because they almost did it.  Even if they did do it, OSU can still win the B1G, still go to the RB.  You guys have made it abundantly clear how that is the ultimate goal, or was for a time.  
After a Cincinnati gets its doors blown off, they say the right things on TV, maybe even that it was a cool experience or an honor to play a NC-caliber team, but they hate life at that moment.  Or they're apathetic, because they may go on to win their conference, etc.  Beating OSU wasn't a season goal, because those should be realistic.  
.
They're setting it up so that a G5 team's reward for a great season is to face off against AN EQUALLY STOKED top-10 level big-boy team.  F- that noise.  And it seems like everyone is ignoring that there was realignment a few years back, so those programs like TCU and Utah who were making real progress are now in the P5.  Guess what?  That will happen again, if any G5 program keeps taking its vitamins.  Cincinnati is a legit program capable of winning a game or two in the playoff?  BOOM!  They're in the ACC now.  
.
The haves aren't in the business of making life easier for the have-nots, even when the have-nots get a fancy invitation in the mail.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

betarhoalphadelta

  • Global Moderator
  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Posts: 14593
  • Liked:
Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #487 on: July 15, 2021, 01:19:58 PM »
In September we see G5/FCS upsets over P5 every week.
Not often over teams with the talent to finish the season in the top 10.

medinabuckeye1

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 10664
  • Liked:
Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #488 on: July 15, 2021, 02:37:27 PM »
In September we see G5/FCS upsets over P5 every week.

Those suggesting that they aren't going to ever win in the playoffs are arguing against the copious amount of data that we have already collected on this matter, with a bunch of hot air and mental gymnastics about how none of the data counts because teams don't try hard enough or some such.

Then they adamantly insist that their "logic" on this matter is so obvious and indisputable, that we should be basing all of our decisions on it, instead of the actual copious amounts of data that has already been collected to the contrary.

It is kind of strange.
We do see G5/FCS upsets over P5 in September but how many of those are upsets of one of that season's top10 P5 teams?  VERY few.  

We aren't talking here about a G5 taking out a bad or even middling P5 we are talking about a game between one of the best G5's and one of the best P5's.  How many of THOSE upsets have we seen?  The first possible example that comes to my mind is BoiseSt's Statue of Liberty miracle upset of Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.  

That was the 2006 season and Boise State that year was possibly the best ever G5.  They finished 13-0:
  • One win over and FCS team
  • Eight wins over WAC foes
  • Two wins over mediocre MWC foes
  • Two quality wins over P5 teams, OrSU and Oklahoma.  
The win over Oregon State might actually be more impressive than the win over Oklahoma because it didn't take a miracle in OT.  They pounded OrSU 42-14 and the Beavers were pretty good that year finishing 10-4.  


Oklahoma was pretty good that year but not really NC material.  They finished 11-3 with the following losses:
  • 34-33 on the road to a mediocre Oregon team
  • 28-10 to Texas at a neutral site
  • 43-42 in OT to Boise St in the Fiesta Bowl.  

Their best win was 21-7 over a 9-5 Nebraska team in the B12CG.  Heading into that Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma was ranked #7 and Boise St was ranked #9.  Oklahoma outgained BoiseSt 407-377, dominated TOP 20:32-16:08, and had more first downs 23-16 but Oklahoma committed FIVE turnovers to BoiseSt's 3.  

Oklahoma led 35-28 and had BoiseSt backed into a 4th and 18 at the 50 with just 0:07 remaining.  BoiseSt then pulled off a miraculous hook-and-lateral to convert the 4th down and score a game tying TD.  Then in OT BoiseSt pulled off a miraculous statue-of-liberty run for the game winning 2pt conversion.  

The bottom line is that this was an EXTREMELY unusually good G5 team and they played a good but not great P5 champion.  Then that P5 champion didn't have a good game and committed five turnovers and BoiseSt converted two miraculous plays and they needed all of that to win by one point in OT.  That doesn't suggest that this feat will be frequently replicated, it suggests the opposite.  It suggests, as I said upthread that the G5 Champions will occasionally manage to knock off their first round opponent but they'll be lucky if they win a Quarterfinal every couple decades at best.  


medinabuckeye1

  • Hall of Fame
  • *****
  • Default Avatar
  • Posts: 10664
  • Liked:
Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #489 on: July 15, 2021, 02:43:58 PM »
The top tier teams in the AAC and MWC will get better and better recruits rolling in with each playoff appearance. They will begin to out recruit middle of the road P5 teams that have little to no chance of ever getting in.

To assume that things will stay exactly as they are now under vastly different circumstances is not very realistic imo.
This is extraordinarily doubtful.  The CFP era has been flat out dominated by Alabama and Clemson with Ohio State a rung below and Oklahoma, LSU, and Georgia a rung below the Buckeyes.  What has that produced?  Well, recruits are flocking to those FEW programs that are competing for Championships and the divide is getting larger rather than smaller.  

I just disagree with your assessment.  Recruits aren't going to be strongly drawn to G5 teams that lose CFP games, they are going to be strongly drawn to P5 teams that win CFP games.  

 

Support the Site!
Purchase of every item listed here DIRECTLY supports the site.