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Topic: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large

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bayareabadger

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #448 on: July 13, 2021, 11:32:29 PM »
As @OrangeAfroMan pointed out above, this is not correct because historically after your team lost one game they were not completely eliminated.  Instead, they just needed help. 

I vaguely remember, pre-internet, keeping pre-season magazines because they contained schedules for every team.  Then, when my team needed teams above them to lose I would refer back to the pre-season magazines to review the schedules of the teams ahead of the Buckeyes to figure out the possible paths to the NC for my team. 
....

Now consider the exact same situation today:
My tOSU fandom doesn't create ANY rooting interest in FSU/ND, UF/FSU, WVU/Miami, or OU/UNL because my team can make the playoff regardless of the outcome of those games. 

This is why I disagree with @ELA 's contention that the MAC Championship matters.  I get where he is coming from in that it matters whether the Falcons or Eagles get into the playoff but that doesn't have any impact on the ability of any other team to get in.  The rest of us would simply know that either the Falcons or Eagles will get a spot but which one has no bearing on our own teams' ability to get in.  Those two will decide their ONE spot between themselves and that is it. 

With a 12-team playoff basically all of those teams are getting in so the only thing on the table is the order and why do I care whether ND or FSU is #1?  Either way it isn't my team. 


So, I wanted to give this a slightly more nuanced response. The issue with "every game matters" is that as you said above, it's sort of squishy. It's "not every game matters, but a small subset matter a great deal, but if you're some teams some years, they don't matter, and sometimes they do."

The old system was get undefeated, NC, or lose once, try your luck. And I get there's a certain appeal, but it just means the appeal is watching standings for the most part. 

The argument about gloaming onto other national games is … Interesting, I guess. But if OSU had lost to Rice or Michigan State, you as an OSU fan wouldn’t have cared at all. And if you wouldn’t have cared at all, why would the 50-some fanbases with a loss by mid-October care? It’s a self-defeating argument. As a Wisconsin fan, I care about those games because I care about the rat race, but I’ll care about that regardless. (I also care about the MAC title because the national title race has always been a part of my CFB experience, but not front and center like it seems to be for many)

You ask, “why do I care whether ND or FSU is #1?  Either way it isn't my team.” Why should I, or most fanbases care if it’s ND or FSU or OSU or Oklahoma if it’s none of our teams? In essence, you’re saying, “We need this system becuase it makes me care, but if most fans took my outlook, they shouldn’t care.” And that’s not a reason to keep something around.

The other issue is that this system comes with all the BS. With this system, you will parse out each team’s rode to -0 or -1 each Saturday night. Then you have the rankings, which in this case matter a ton, so you get to talk rankings. And after the rankings come out, you again project and lament and such. And all of it is for scenarios that won’t happen. Now, I know there are some people who enjoy that. I don’t. And most people say they don’t, but for some reason, the desperately want it to be front and center int he CFB experience.

I’ll step into an aside for a moment. I didn’t have teams in the thick of the race late into the season when my fandom was really crystallizing in school (I did ride that wave with Cal and OSU in HS, but that’s a different story). But I did watch my alma mater go 5-0 a bunch. 5-0 is an interesting record. If you have hype it builds it. If you don’t, the hype comes slow, and people say “where’s the respect?” You can get it with two body bags, a down P5 team and a couple Big Ten wins. It’s enough to make you say, “Hey, every game counts, and we have no losses.”

But it tends to end. You learn the truth we all do. The mattering is in the finishing, not the start or middle. In theory, the 28-12 win against Vandy matters because it COULD have been a loss. But it wasn’t. And you’re instead out here lamenting that you lost too many sports in the rankings because the voters didn’t watch and see it was really 28-6 until garbage time. Outside the zone that gets an OSU or UF fan to care, you learn to appreciate your team/or other teams you like and the national race as separate. And as a separate thing, it’s a certain kind of good, but comes with so much BS, and isn’t necessarily any more worthwhile than good teams, playing each other, with stakes on the line that both actually know.

I know that’s too long, the summery comes down to the bolded paragraph. If the best argument is that if you root for five teams in it in November, it’s wonderful, but even fans of powers often are out of it and admit they don’t care, then the argument that it’s truly worth holding onto rings mighty hollow.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #449 on: July 14, 2021, 12:17:46 AM »
This isn't something I'm into, but most people do it - once your team has a few losses, people like to follow one of those still in it.  Whether it's a 2nd-favorite team or a team that pops up on your radar or their style of play or like their HC or their success screws a program you're not a fan of - whatever it is - you're still going to watch good football with some sort of rooting interest.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #450 on: July 14, 2021, 12:23:20 AM »
Idk guys, the last time Florida sucked, I was just as invested in the season as ever.  But I'm a big college football nerd.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #451 on: July 14, 2021, 09:32:54 AM »
the closer a team is to a goal, the more the fan base is interested

the playoff is a goal

this will give more teams a chance to achieve that goal
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ELA

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #452 on: July 14, 2021, 09:39:15 AM »
I'm trying to come up with a workable compromise between @ELA 's "all league champions get in" concept and @OrangeAfroMan 's "it should be the best _ teams period" concept. 

Honestly, I see the arguments for and against both: 

I like that ELA's version rewards league champions but I don't like that it rewards too many "tallest midgets" that are demonstrably inferior to a whole bunch of VERY good P5 non-Champions. 
I'm not saying I would necessarily do that, I just think that's a better format than 6 at larges.  And by "rewarding" they get to go play a road game against a top 8 team.  They will almost never win that game.  In the rare, rare instance they do, fine, now a P5 runner-up doesn't get to be in the Final 8.  I'm more than ok with that.  And if they can go beat a top 8 and a top 4 team in back to back road games, then I think maybe we underrated them, and they certainly deserve a shot.

I mean I guess there is no reason to care if it's Central Michigan or Bowling Green getting a 12 seed, but why do I care any less than whether Texas A&M or Wisconsin gets the 12 seed?

Cincydawg

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #453 on: July 14, 2021, 09:46:26 AM »
I somewhat millified with the concept that this is really a four team playoff with some extra games.  Ha, I typed "millified".  Should be a word.

And if on occasion team 5 or 6 wins out, fine with me.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #454 on: July 14, 2021, 12:04:13 PM »
the closer a team is to a goal, the more the fan base is interested

the playoff is a goal

this will give more teams a chance to achieve that goal
Right, it's inclusive.  Which is the opposite of exclusive....which is better.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

medinabuckeye1

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #455 on: July 14, 2021, 12:18:09 PM »
I'm not saying I would necessarily do that, I just think that's a better format than 6 at larges.  And by "rewarding" they get to go play a road game against a top 8 team.  They will almost never win that game.  In the rare, rare instance they do, fine, now a P5 runner-up doesn't get to be in the Final 8.  I'm more than ok with that.  And if they can go beat a top 8 and a top 4 team in back to back road games, then I think maybe we underrated them, and they certainly deserve a shot.
Well, after looking through all 10 league champions for 2014-2019 there is a pretty distinct drop-off after #7 or #8.  Most years there were about seven or eight ranked league champions and two or three unranked.  Miami of Ohio, for example won the MAC in a year in which they lost to Ohio State by 71 points.  I don't need to see a team that lost THAT badly to Ohio State given a shot at #5 to absolutely KNOW that they aren't in the same stratosphere as the top teams in the Nation.  That is where I'm thinking that making it the top eight league champions is better because there is simply no reason to include a team like MAC Champion Miami of Ohio in 2019 that lost:
  • by 71, 76-5 to Ohio State
  • by 24, 38-14 to Iowa
  • by 22, 35-13 to Cincy
  • by 22, 38-16 to WMU
  • by 14, 41-27 to BallSt
I think we can all agree that we don't need to include them in the CFP to figure out that they aren't as good as the best teams in the country.  
I mean I guess there is no reason to care if it's Central Michigan or Bowling Green getting a 12 seed, but why do I care any less than whether Texas A&M or Wisconsin gets the 12 seed?
Because aTm or Wisconsin just might be good enough to win the whole thing and/or at least take out their Quarterfinal opponent.  

Suppose that my team is going to be the #4 so I know that the Buckeyes will play the #5/12 winner in the Quarterfinal.  I obviously care who #5 is because that is likely to be a team good enough to have a decent chance against mine.  If #12 is between CMU and BGSU I could care less because neither can take out my team and it doesn't matter anyway because neither can take out #5 so my team is never going to play them anyway.  However if #12 is between aTm and Wisconsin I care a LOT because they are good enough to take out #5 and play and potentially beat my team.  

ELA

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #456 on: July 14, 2021, 12:29:04 PM »
Well, after looking through all 10 league champions for 2014-2019 there is a pretty distinct drop-off after #7 or #8.  Most years there were about seven or eight ranked league champions and two or three unranked.  Miami of Ohio, for example won the MAC in a year in which they lost to Ohio State by 71 points.  I don't need to see a team that lost THAT badly to Ohio State given a shot at #5 to absolutely KNOW that they aren't in the same stratosphere as the top teams in the Nation.  That is where I'm thinking that making it the top eight league champions is better because there is simply no reason to include a team like MAC Champion Miami of Ohio in 2019 that lost:
  • by 71, 76-5 to Ohio State
  • by 24, 38-14 to Iowa
  • by 22, 35-13 to Cincy
  • by 22, 38-16 to WMU
  • by 14, 41-27 to BallSt
I think we can all agree that we don't need to include them in the CFP to figure out that they aren't as good as the best teams in the country.  Because aTm or Wisconsin just might be good enough to win the whole thing and/or at least take out their Quarterfinal opponent. 

Suppose that my team is going to be the #4 so I know that the Buckeyes will play the #5/12 winner in the Quarterfinal.  I obviously care who #5 is because that is likely to be a team good enough to have a decent chance against mine.  If #12 is between CMU and BGSU I could care less because neither can take out my team and it doesn't matter anyway because neither can take out #5 so my team is never going to play them anyway.  However if #12 is between aTm and Wisconsin I care a LOT because they are good enough to take out #5 and play and potentially beat my team. 
But what if my team isn't #4?

medinabuckeye1

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #457 on: July 14, 2021, 01:36:57 PM »
But what if my team isn't #4?
This is a fair point.  @OrangeAfroMan pointed out above that he tends to view this through the lens of being a fan of a team that is in the race more often than not.  Frankly, I'm the same way.  I was somewhat of a CFB fan as a kid but honestly I was more of a fan of the NFL.  I didn't really get into CFB until I started at Ohio State which just happened to be in the fall of 1993 . . .  Well, 1993 is the start point for a PHENOMENAL run by the Buckeyes.  Even though they "only" have two NC's in the almost 30 years since then they are at or near the top of the heap in almost every metric since then:
  • #1 in winning percentage (by a LOT) over #2 Boise and if you don't count them then it is by a HUMONGOUS margin over #3 Oklahoma, #4 Florida, etc.  
  • #1 in AP Poll appearances by a substantial margin over #2 Florida.  The Buckeyes have been in 428 out of 466 polls since 1993 (91.8%) and note that it would be higher except that they got dinged in 2020 by being left out of two polls because the B1G wasn't playing yet.  Otherwise it would be 430 out of 466 or 92.3%.  
  • #1 in AP top-10 appearances by a HUGE margin over #2 Florida.  The Buckeyes were in 322 out of 466 top-10's (69.1%) and again it would be higher but for the COVID issue.  
  • #2 in AP top-5 appearances behind #1 Bama.  
  • #3 in AP #1 appearances behind #1 Bama and #2 FSU.  
  • #1 in Big11Ten/B1G Championships with 14.  The next two teams (UW and M) have 11 combined and the next three teams combined (UW, M, PSU) only have one more than Ohio State.  

Obviously that is a different view of CFB than most fans have.  However, I still think it matters because even if Ohio State was out of it I'd be interested because, from a national perspective, it matters whether aTm or UW get in because they *MIGHT* beat #4 and might win the whole thing but it doesn't matter whether BGSU or Directional-Michigan get in because they aren't going to beat #5 and they surely aren't going to win the whole thing.  


OrangeAfroMan

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #458 on: July 14, 2021, 08:33:56 PM »
I think the split here is between fans who have confidence in their team getting in the 12-team playoff actually winning games once there vs the larger group of fans who lack that confidence - that if their team got there, that's great, but there's no reason to believe they'll do anything once there.  Piggybacking on that - fans of teams that have a reasonable idea that their team will be there as often as not vs those that might make it in a 20-year peak.
.
Neither is better or worse, but there is a divide.  Florida would have made it the past 2 years in the 12-team setup and I'd have confidence in them winning a game or two this past year.  
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What's worst about this, I'm predicting, is the fans of the strong G5 programs that will make it from time to time and just get emasculated over and over.  Getting their seat at the table isn't going to be pleasant - setting them up in front of a big-boy team with their highest aspirations still in front of them, and not sneaking up on them after their dreams were dashed in some consolation prize bowl.  Watch out.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MaximumSam

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #459 on: July 14, 2021, 09:41:09 PM »

Quote
What's worst about this, I'm predicting, is the fans of the strong G5 programs that will make it from time to time and just get emasculated over and over.  Getting their seat at the table isn't going to be pleasant - setting them up in front of a big-boy team with their highest aspirations still in front of them, and not sneaking up on them after their dreams were dashed in some consolation prize bowl.  Watch out.
Every team has been emasculated. I'm not sure it is worth worrying about.

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #460 on: July 14, 2021, 09:49:17 PM »
Ask OU if getting an annual whipping with the nation watching is fun.  We're taking a successful season by some G5 team and rewarding it with a beating.
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

MaximumSam

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #461 on: July 14, 2021, 09:51:44 PM »
Ask OU if getting an annual whipping with the nation watching is fun.  We're taking a successful season by some G5 team and rewarding it with a beating.
Some years, sure. Some years, they will get a win or two. Getting to participate is unquestionably better than the alternative.

 

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