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Topic: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
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OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #182 on:** June 14, 2021, 04:55:16 PM »

Reminder: big, bad UCF beat a 3-loss Auburn team by 7 points after having just lost its shot at a playoff nod.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #183 on:** June 14, 2021, 04:58:14 PM »

The Dawgs have scheduled three P5 teams OOC each year, including programs like OSU and Clemson and Oklahoma, it's a strategy for at least one loss a year even if your team is excellent, and possibly two. But if you win your conference and are 11-2 .... One could argue Tech shouldn't count. 2030 and 2031 look interesting.

2026

09/05 – UCLA
09/12 – Western Kentucky
09/19 – at Louisville
11/28 – Georgia Tech

2027

09/04 – at Florida State
09/18 – Louisville
11/27 – at Georgia Tech

2028

09/02 – at Texas
09/09 – Florida A&M
09/16 – Florida State
11/25 – Georgia Tech

2029

09/01 – Texas
09/15 – at Clemson
11/24 – at Georgia Tech

2030

08/31 – Clemson
09/14 – Ohio State
11/30 – Georgia Tech

2031

08/30 – at Ohio State
09/13 – Oklahoma
11/29 – at Georgia Tech

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #184 on:** June 14, 2021, 05:01:44 PM »

Quote from: FearlessF on June 14, 2021, 04:52:34 PM

the committee has shown they do NOT reward programs for stronger scheduling

I doubt that will change

but, as noted above, an early season non-con loss won't keep you out of the playoff if you win the conference

that one non-con lose could easily keep you from getting one of the tops 4 seeds and a very valuable bye

I could see it being a differentiator in at-large selection, particularly when "conference championship" is no longer a differentiator--you're basically looking at teams that didn't win their conference for at-large selection.

So you have to look at the full body of work. Is a team from the weak ACC or PAC going to stand up based on a 7-1 or 8-1 in-conference record if they play patsies OOC?

I expect the committee will punish that. They won't for an SEC team, but they will for the other conferences.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #185 on:** June 14, 2021, 05:09:16 PM »

Off the top of my head, the best mid-major teams (idk if they're all undefeated, but they had great seasons):
'75 Arizona State.....WAC champs, had several top-10 seasons in the 70s, helping them join the Pac-8.
'83 BYU....was definitely better than the '84 NCs.
'85 Air Force....idk anything about this team, but a lot of ppl order it for the Whoa Nellie game
'90 BYU beat #1 Miami, but didn't have a great season
East Carolina had a big year in 1991
In addition to '04 and '08, Utah had a strong year in '94.
BYU went 14-1 in '96.
1998 was the Tulane year with Shaun King at QB.
I wouldn't put the Marshall teams of the last 90s in here, I believe their best win was vs a .500 WV team.
03 Miami-OH with Big Ben was a top 10 team, I believe
'07 Hawai'i was good until they played a big-boy team.
The more recent ones are jumbled up in my mind - the year TCU went undefeated, Boise State had a few, too.
Lousiville had a 13-1 team that was legit - I think with Lefors at QB and that biiig RB.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #186 on:** June 14, 2021, 05:10:50 PM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on June 14, 2021, 04:58:14 PM

The Dawgs have scheduled three P5 teams OOC each year, including programs like OSU and Clemson and Oklahoma, it's a strategy for at least one loss a year even if your team is excellent, and possibly two. But if you win your conference and are 11-2 .... One could argue Tech shouldn't count. 2030 and 2031 look interesting.

2026

09/05 – UCLA
09/12 – Western Kentucky
09/19 – at Louisville
11/28 – Georgia Tech
2027
09/04 – at Florida State
09/18 – Louisville
11/27 – at Georgia Tech
2028
09/02 – at Texas
09/09 – Florida A&M
09/16 – Florida State
11/25 – Georgia Tech
2029
09/01 – Texas
09/15 – at Clemson
11/24 – at Georgia Tech

2030
08/31 – Clemson
09/14 – Ohio State
11/30 – Georgia Tech
2031
08/30 – at Ohio State
09/13 – Oklahoma
11/29 – at Georgia Tech

You could also have a very strong team, go 8-4, and be irrelevant.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #187 on:** June 14, 2021, 05:12:28 PM »

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on June 14, 2021, 05:01:44 PM

So you have to look at the full body of work. Is a team from the weak ACC or PAC going to stand up based on a 7-1 or 8-1 in-conference record if they play patsies OOC?

I expect the committee will punish that. They won't for an SEC team, but they will for the other conferences.

Why even tack that last part on? Acting as if an 8-1 in-conference record is equal in the ACC and SEC. Everyone knows it's not, so why would anyone weigh them equally?

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #188 on:** June 14, 2021, 05:27:43 PM »

83 BYU
96 BYU..........winner vs 84 BYU
.
94 Utah
04 Utah.........winner vs 08 Utah
.
10 TCU
09 Boise St......winner vs 06 Boise St
.
98 Tulane
17 UCF...........winner vs 03 Miami (OH)

betarhoalphadelta · « **Reply #189 on:** June 14, 2021, 05:47:30 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 14, 2021, 05:12:28 PM

Why even tack that last part on? Acting as if an 8-1 in-conference record is equal in the ACC and SEC. Everyone knows it's not, so why would anyone weigh them equally?

It wasn't a dig at you or your conference, OAM.

It was why I singled out the ACC and PAC as being weak. The B1G is a strong conference, and the B12 is respectable, but generally the PAC and ACC these days are weak. Teams from those conferences will NEED additional OOC bolstering of their resume to compete with the SEC in the committee decision room.

I dig on the SEC for their scheduling, like the mid-Nov FCS tune-up games and only having 8 conference games. Big I'm not questioning the strength of the teams in the conference. It's top to bottom the best in the sport.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #190 on:** June 14, 2021, 05:51:28 PM »

Thanks for clarifying.
.
In this model, 2 teams could end up playing 17 games. Do you guys think there's any chance of the regular season going back to 11 games?

ELA · « **Reply #191 on:** June 14, 2021, 07:04:06 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 14, 2021, 05:51:28 PM

Thanks for clarifying.
.
In this model, 2 teams could end up playing 17 games. Do you guys think there's any chance of the regular season going back to 11 games?

No

Unless they make CCG week a full week, of round robin play, so that it is essentially the 12th game for everyone. Which I am in favor of

bayareabadger · « **Reply #192 on:** June 14, 2021, 07:20:52 PM »

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on June 14, 2021, 05:12:28 PM

Why even tack that last part on? Acting as if an 8-1 in-conference record is equal in the ACC and SEC. Everyone knows it's not, so why would anyone weigh them equally?

/Looks at A&M last year at the end of the regular season

Really does depend on the year

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #193 on:** June 15, 2021, 02:42:06 AM »

2010 What If: Can Cam? Cam Can!
.
8 Arkansas
9 Michigan St...........winner vs 1 Auburn
.
5 Stanford
12 Missouri..............winner vs 4 Wisconsin
.
6 Ohio St
11 LSU...................winner vs 3 TCU
.
7 Oklahoma
10 Boise St..............winner 2 Oregon
.
Jesus, VT wins the ACC again and no ACC team makes the playoff. F-ing useless conference. And I think this might be the last season of the weakened Big East being part of the party (UConn was their rep, ffs).

*nope, WV won the B.E. and sniped Clempsin in the OB the next year.

OrangeAfroMan · « **Reply #194 on:** June 15, 2021, 02:57:09 AM »

2011: A Cowboy Odyssey
Boy, this one is interesting. Aside from being the season responsible for the 4-team playoff, the 4th conference champ to get that 4-seed would have been 10th-ranked Wisconsin.
That means seeds 5-10 weren't conference winners. And once again, VT wins the ACC and would be left out. It's comical now (4 times out of 6 years, I believe).
Anyway, the bracket, so Okie State can shaddup about it:
.
8 Boise St
9 Kansas St..............winner vs 1 LSU
.
5 Alabama
12 TCU....................winner vs 4 Wisconsin
.
6 Stanford
11 Clemson..............winner vs 3 Oregon
.
7 Arkansas
10 South Carolina.......winner vs 2 Oklahoma St
.
.
Yeah, after looking at a lot of these, the setup is going to guarantee the top half is most often heaviest, because of the commonly-heavyweight 5 seeded team. Teams are going to start vying to be the 2-seed. They need to configure it so the 5-seed is in the opposite half of the bracket, away from the 1-seed.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #195 on:** June 15, 2021, 07:19:17 AM »

I figure if you schedule UP and end up 8-4. your "strong team" had some issues. You would not expect that team to do well in this playoff, as they didn't do well playing other strong teams in the regular season. Imagine UGA does have a strong team, but gets nipped by OSU and OU, or Clemson, and gets beat by Florida, but is 9-3 and East champion, having beat some decent teams along the way. Then they upset 12-0 Alabama and are 10-3, SEC Champions, they'd get into this playoff of course, but probably not a 1-4 seed.

And I'd be OK with that. If they had a really strong team, they would be 11-2 at worst I think.

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Topic: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large

OrangeAfroMan

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Cincydawg

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betarhoalphadelta

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OrangeAfroMan

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OrangeAfroMan

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OrangeAfroMan

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OrangeAfroMan

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betarhoalphadelta

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OrangeAfroMan

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ELA

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bayareabadger

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OrangeAfroMan

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OrangeAfroMan

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Cincydawg

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