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Topic: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large

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Cincydawg

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #168 on: June 14, 2021, 12:24:17 PM »
It gets vague, would PSU have been "G5" back when?  I'd say no, same with Pitt.  So, was SMU G5 sort of then?  Houston was, they did lose their first two games of the year in 1969.

Ranking The Best Undefeated G5 Football Teams of All Time | Downtown Huntington

1. Utah Utes (2008)

Like TCU the Utes are now part of a power conference and an undefeated season now would assure them a place at the table. But, the 2008 Utes weren’t given that same luxury. The Mountain West champs started the season off with a two-point win over nationally ranked Michigan in Ann Arbor. Beat a nationally ranked Oregon State team that was coming off an upset victory of then top ranked USC and downed both #11 TCU and #14 BYU at home before earning the right to take on Nick Saban and Alabama. Utah dominated the Crimson Tide 31-17 beating Bama worse than Florida, the eventual national champions in 2008 did in the SEC title game. Of course the P5 talking heads and fans say that Alabama didn’t take the game seriously and didn’t want to be there due to disappointment of missing out on a chance at the national title. But, Saban’s teams don’t like to lose and they rarely get decimated in such convincing fashion. This 2008 Utah team was for real and played one of the toughest schedules a “G5” team could play with four ranked opponents in the regular season. In the final rankings the polls were split. The Coaches had the Utes ranked 4th while the writers at the AP ranked them number 2. But, I’m just going to rank them as the best non-power conference team to ever go undefeated in the era where a national title game was played.

Brutus Buckeye

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #169 on: June 14, 2021, 12:36:01 PM »
Yeah Utah, Louisville and TCU were all good enough to earn a promotion. 

bayareabadger

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #170 on: June 14, 2021, 01:14:12 PM »
of course SMU wasn't G5 back then
That’s fair. I mean, there was no G5 I suppose. 

Next best I found was 1980 BYU. 

FearlessF

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #171 on: June 14, 2021, 01:19:10 PM »
Yeah Utah, Louisville and TCU were all good enough to earn a promotion.
but, were any of them good enough to win 3 straight vs top 10/top 4 type competition?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #172 on: June 14, 2021, 01:30:13 PM »
I think Utah COULD plausibly have won the first two games, they'd be seeded say 6 playing 11, not much of a heavy lift.  They would face 1-4 and an upset there would not be an incredible feat.  But winning the third round looks unlikely, and then some.

In a hundred years?  Maybe, some G5 team gets a Michael Vick QB with an all around solid team maybe maybe.

FearlessF

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #173 on: June 14, 2021, 01:34:21 PM »
No matter what Scott Frost does at Nebraska, college football lovers and historians should — and likely will — have him in one of the sport’s more memorable footnotes.

He helped kick the door in for expanding the College Football Playoff.

His 2017 Central Florida team — which went undefeated and beat Auburn in the Peach Bowl — was the first of the CFP-era Group of Five squads to stand shoulder to shoulder with the Power Five teams. That UCF squad remains the best G5 team of the CFP era, though the Knights’ undefeated regular season in 2018 — and subsequent snubbing by the CFP committee — underlined that no G5 team ever was getting into the event without expansion.


Frost was vocal about wanting to expand the playoff in 2017 and later at the 2018 Big Ten media days, though he had a different format in mind.

“It’s hard to look at last year’s college football season and not feel like an eight-team playoff isn’t where we should go,” Frost said that year in Chicago. “I think that’s my opinion. I think it should be five conference champions and three at-large teams. That would give a surprise conference champion that plays well at the end of the season a shot. It might give a team like we had at UCF last year a shot.”


https://omaha.com/sports/huskers/football/mckewon-expanded-playoff-would-be-golden-opportunity-for-huskers-big-ten/article_646616c8-cca6-11eb-bd93-57565ea447f0.amp.html

_________________________________________________ ________________________________

would the 2018 Knights had a chance?  I don't think so
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

FearlessF

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #174 on: June 14, 2021, 01:43:11 PM »
Funny enough, the CFP expanding its field is done now in an attempt to reinvigorate the regular season.

Division games suddenly mean so much more. Win your division, get to the conference championship game, and you’re one win away. If you enter that game at a respectable 9-3, you might even be just one good showing away. Nebraska’s late-season stretch run through Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, and Northwestern gets even more important.

An early-season loss might not carry as much weight as it once did, but what if the impact of that is more marquee out-of-conference games? What if Alabama—whose coach has said Power Five should only play Power Five—scheduled more frequent games against other top teams early in the year, unafraid of what a trip-up toward the starting line would do to its finish line? Better for the product, right?

Late-season opt-outs have been a become a hot button issue of late, but this might address that too.

When Florida played Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl last season, it did so without some of its top weapons. Players like Kyle Pitts were getting ready for the NFL because a Cotton Bowl trophy under the current set-up is not reason enough for a player who is about to go make a lot of money in the league to risk a freak injury.

Under this 12-team model, that Florida team is hosting a Playoff game in December. Those players that sat out the Cotton Bowl are playing in a Playoff game. Another plus.


https://hailvarsity.com/football/an-expanded-college-football-playoff-is-a-huge-win-for-the-sport/


According to Bill Connelly’s SP+ projections, the No. 1 seed in this 12-team format only has a 71% chance of reaching the semifinals. That’s a 29% chance it doesn’t. A lot bigger than you expected, right?
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #175 on: June 14, 2021, 03:43:17 PM »
An early-season loss might not carry as much weight as it once did, but what if the impact of that is more marquee out-of-conference games? What if Alabama—whose coach has said Power Five should only play Power Five—scheduled more frequent games against other top teams early in the year, unafraid of what a trip-up toward the starting line would do to its finish line? Better for the product, right?
Exactly! This is what I've been saying. 

If conference champs are auto-bid, it makes tougher OOC scheduling much more likely. 

If winning the conference gets you in, OOC losses against good teams don't hurt your resume. If you don't win your conference, OOC wins against good teams bolster your resume significantly for at-large selection. 

It gives you a potential benefit and takes away one of the risks of losing those games. 



ELA

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #176 on: June 14, 2021, 04:00:36 PM »
Yeah Utah, Louisville and TCU were all good enough to earn a promotion.
Well, they all happened to be good at the right time, when all of the conferences were shuffling.  If this had been the late 90s, would Southern Miss and Marshall have been more attractive targets than Louisville and TCU?

And it also happened in an era where conferences weren't looking for the best schools within their geographic fit anymore, they were looking for the best way to expand their tv markets.  If this happens in a pre-BTN world, I'm not sure Maryland or Rutgers are even on the Big Ten's radar.  Obviously Rutgers for many reasons, but Maryland simply from a geographic fit, went from an outlier to being exactly what they were looking for.  And it made Pitt completely irrelveant as an expansion target

FearlessF

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #177 on: June 14, 2021, 04:07:10 PM »
Exactly! This is what I've been saying.

If conference champs are auto-bid, it makes tougher OOC scheduling much more likely.

If winning the conference gets you in, OOC losses against good teams don't hurt your resume. If you don't win your conference, OOC wins against good teams bolster your resume significantly for at-large selection.

It gives you a potential benefit and takes away one of the risks of losing those games.



most folks seem to like the idea of this 12-team playoff
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

Cincydawg

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #178 on: June 14, 2021, 04:37:58 PM »
I wonder if expecting this is why UGA upped its OOC slates later this decade the way they did.

betarhoalphadelta

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #179 on: June 14, 2021, 04:46:27 PM »
most folks seem to like the idea of this 12-team playoff
No, I still don't like it. 

I think the incentive to schedule stronger OOC is absolutely true of a 5+1+2 or 6+2 or 5+3 system, without going to 12. 

In fact, it's probably more of an incentive with fewer at large bids, because schedule strength would be a much bigger differentiator for a resume with fewer at large. 

OrangeAfroMan

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #180 on: June 14, 2021, 04:51:39 PM »
I wonder if expecting this is why UGA upped its OOC slates later this decade the way they did.
Everyone is doing it.  Florida has scheduled 3 road games west of Baton Rouge, for chrissakes!!
“The Swamp is where Gators live.  We feel comfortable there, but we hope our opponents feel tentative. A swamp is hot and sticky and can be dangerous." - Steve Spurrier

FearlessF

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Re: SI Says 12 Team Playoff Likely w/ 6 At-Large
« Reply #181 on: June 14, 2021, 04:52:34 PM »
the committee has shown they do NOT reward programs for stronger scheduling

I doubt that will change

but, as noted above, an early season non-con loss won't keep you out of the playoff if you win the conference

that one non-con lose could easily keep you from getting one of the tops 4 seeds and a very valuable bye
"Courage; Generosity; Fairness; Honor; In these are the true awards of manly sport."

 

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