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We're all influenced by Helmetosity of course.  Indiana is "never" any good, so they can't be good, even if they are pretty good.

Now, it they were an SEC team, it'd be different.

As noted, they could have faced Texas' schedule, in which case they could well be 10-1.  They both beat UM.

Which other Texas opponent would be favored over Indiana?  Vandy?  Florida with a QB3?  Arky?  MSU?  Maybe Indy drops one of those, Texas almost did, kind of.

We're all influenced by Helmetosity of course.  Indiana is "never" any good, so they can't be good, even if they are pretty good.

Now, it they were an SEC team, it'd be different.

It's also different in the transfer portal era. 

Usually a team like IU needs to hire a new coach, show a year or two of progress as the improved record due to coaching leads to better recruiting. Then those recruits need to actually develop. A non-helmet team going from 3-9 to 7-5 in one year is one thing. A team going from 3-9 to 11-1 in one year is not something we typically see. It's usually a 3-4 year process.

There are very few "1 year turnarounds" of a crappy team. Or... There were, before a coach can just replace huge swaths of the roster in a single offseason. 

As usual, an erudite observation.

Is that like an amethyst?  

Had Indiana played Texas opponents they might well be 10-1, it's not out of the realm.  As we've all noted, for a really good team, it's a 2 game schedule, generally speaking, and then holding serve over a bunch of inferiors (which is not easy).  Indiana had a one game slate this season, and lost the one, while holding serve.