But that brings up the great question - do you actually hold, you know, the results of the games as something that matters. I know it is unpopular to actually look at the results of the game, as opposed to what we think should have happened, but at some point there is no point to sports if we continue to not care about the results of the games. This stuff against Cincinnati is based in simulation - Cincinnati shouldn't compete with the Georgia's and Notre Dame's of the world, and if they do, it is due to some sort of other mystical reason. At some point, we have to expose that idea as the complete joke that it is. They play the games, the results matter, and anything else is just noise.
This is neither my nor
@OrangeAfroMan 's argument.
Our argument is this:
It's not that the games don't matter, but the opponent matters, too.
Quit ignoring the fact that Cincy's opponents suck. They don't suck just because Fro and I say they suck or just because their recruiting sucks but because the teams suck. You can quibble with the exact rankings here but the general concept holds, this is from the CBS 1-130 rankings:
Ohio State's and Bama's 9th toughest opponents (RU and UF) are ranked #74 and #69 respectively. That is about equivalent to Cincinnati's fourth toughest opponent, ECU ranked #77.
My view, for a legitimate NC contender is that the teams break down into "tiers" roughly as follows:
- Roughly the top 15-20: These are teams that you better bring your "A Game" against because otherwise they'll probably beat you. Even if you DO bring your "A Game", these are likely to be dogfights with a decent possibility of losing. For Ohio State this is Oregon, Michigan State, Michigan, and maybe Penn State. For Bama this is aTm, Ole Miss, and maybe Auburn. For Cincinnati this is Notre Dame . . . and that is it. If they were a legitimate NC contender their only serious challenge all year would be Notre Dame.
- Roughly the next 15-20 (so about 15 or 20 through 30 or 40): These are teams where if you bring your "A Game", you will win but if you have an off night they could jump up and get you. For Ohio State this is Purdue. For Bama this is Arkansas and maybe Tennessee and Mississippi State. For Cincy this is maybe SMU and that is it.
- Roughly the next 15-20 (so about 30 or 40 through 45 or 60): These are teams that an actual NC contender is a WHOLE LOT better than but they are good enough that if the stars align and they have a REALLY great game and your team plays their worst game of the year it ends up being a close game and then anything can happen at the end. For Ohio State this is Minnesota. For Bama this is Miami,FL and LSU. For Cincy this is UCF.
- Roughly the next 15-20 (so about 45 or 60 through 60 or 80): These teams would need miracles but upsets in this range do happen every few decades or so. For Ohio State this is Maryland, Nebraska, and Rutgers. For Bama this is Florida. For Cincy this is ECU.
- All teams below about 60 to 80: Barring some insane mitigating circumstance (like half your team being out for some reason) if you lose to one of these teams you aren't a legitimate NC contender. For Ohio State this is IU, Tulsa, and Akron. For Bama this is USM, NMST, and Mercer. For Cincy this is most of their schedule: Indiana, MiamiOH, Tulsa, Navy, Tulane, USF, Temple, and MurraySt.
On the whole:
- tOSU plays 4, Bama plays 3, and Cincy plays one seriously challenging game.
- tOSU plays one, Bama plays three, and Cincy plays one marginally challenging game.
- tOSU plays one, Bama plays two, and Cincy plays one possibly challenging game.
- tOSU plays three, Bama plays one, and Cincy plays one implausibly challenging game.
- tOSU plays three, Bama plays three, and Cincy plays SEVEN body-bags.
Nobody is arguing that tOSU or Bama or anybody else should automatically get in based on recruiting rankings and a tough schedule but you can't compare Cincy to a P5 team without acknowledging the massive difference in schedule.
If Ohio State, Bama, or anybody else in the top-20 played Cincy's schedule they'd have maybe a 50/50 chance of losing to ND, maybe a 20% chance of losing to SMU, maybe a 10% chance of losing to UCF, maybe a 5% chance of losing to ECU or IU and <1% chance of losing any of the other seven games. The entire schedule boils down to Notre Dame.
I'm NEVER comfortable judging a team based on one game because it is WAY too easy to cherry pick the game. Lets try:
Want to prove Ohio State is #1, look at the Maryland game. Ohio State crushed them FAR worse than any other opponent of theirs.
Want to prove Ohio State doesn't belong, look at the Oregon game.
Want to prove Bama is #1, look at the MsSt game. Bama crushed them by 40 and they beat aTm.
Want to prove Bama doesn't belong, look at the aTm game.
Want to prove Cincy is #1, look at the Notre Dame game. Cincy beat them, nobody else has.
Want to prove Cincy doesn't belong, look at their last three games. Legitimate NC contenders don't struggle with #101 Navy, #107 Tulane, and #100 Tulsa.
That brings me to my final point:
Just looking at W's and L's is ridiculous because Cincy's SoS is so vastly weaker than the other contenders. Thus we are compelled to look at what the committee has called "game control". This is more than just final score because final scores can be misleading due to late "garbage time" scores that can make a blowout look close or make a close game look like a blowout. I like the committee's "game control" concept. Basically I look at this as asking yourself "If you were watching this game hoping for an upset, when would you have given up and changed the channel to something else?" Indiana and Tulsa make a great example here because they a common opponents of the Buckeyes and Bearcats:
Indiana:Cincinnati trailed in the fourth quarter and didn't take a two score lead until just 2:37 remained so if you were watching this you'd have been in until almost the last second.
Ohio State led 44-7 at halftime.
Tulsa:Cincinnati had a 14-0 lead early but that evaporated into a 14-12 game at halftime then Cincy pulled out to a 16 point lead in the third quarter but Tulsa got back in the game with a TD and 2PT conversion to make it a one score game then Cincy needed not one but TWO goal-line stands in the final minutes to preserve their victory.
Ohio State wasn't as dominant as they should have been against Tulsa either but the game effectively ended when Ohio State scored an offensive TD with about three minutes remaining to obtain a 14 point lead and rather than fighting off a goal-line attempt in the final seconds, the Buckeyes got a pick-6 to make it a 21 point win.
The Tulsa game doesn't look good for Ohio State. Their performance was only marginally better than Cincinnati's. The difference is that we KNOW that the Tulsa game was an outlier for Ohio State because they they haven't struggled against any other teams even close to as bad as Tulsa. The Buckeyes throttled #125 Akron, #82 Indiana, #79 Rutgers, and #61 Maryland and even their "only" nine point win over #67 Nebraska is the only two score win over the Cornhuskers so far this year. We can't say the same thing about Cincinnati because they also struggled with #82 Indiana, #101 Navy, and #107 Tulane.
If a G5 team like Cincinnati wants to be considered they have to make up for their rinky-dink schedule by beating the living daylights out of their pip-squeak opponents and Cincinnati simply hasn't done it. They have four close wins over teams ranked 80+ (#82 IU, #100 Tulsa, #101 Navy, #107 Tulane). That simply isn't the resume of a legitimate contender.
If they were consistently beating the tar out of their weak opponents then I'd be ok with putting an undefeated G5 Champion in over a non-Champion or maybe a 2-loss P5 Champ but they aren't. In light of how ridiculously weak their SoS is, they haven't done enough to even be in the discussion.
