I mean...maybe. For one, Cincy needs to continue to win, which is no easy task despite what people want to say.
This depends. If they are "just a G5 school" then no, their remaining schedule isn't easy. They still have to play SMU and ECU which are two pretty good (for G5 teams) teams then USF which is terrible even by G5 standards.
There are, however, a multitude of problems. For one thing, SMU lost their last two games. A couple weeks ago they were undefeated and ranked #19 but now they are 3-2/7-2 with losses to Houston (not too bad) and Memphis (BAD). Thus, beating SMU isn't going to win them many style points for the simple reason that SMU isn't very good.
Lets look at SMU:
The Mustangs' only game against P5 competition was at TCU. It was a back-and-forth game in which the Mustangs only led by more than one score for about seven minutes in the third quarter and another eight minutes in the fourth. The Mustangs won by one score, 42-34. Ok, so the Mustangs are a bit better than TCU. How good is TCU? Well, they suck. They fired their coach. They are 2-4 in the B12 and 4-5 overall. When TCU played the Sooners who are much maligned for their closer-than-expected wins, the Sooners never trailed and took a two-score lead for good shortly before halftime.
That is the best game left on Cincy's schedule, then there is ECU, lets look at ECU:
The Pirate's only foray against P5 opposition was a home game against USCe. ECU took an early 14-0 lead then got outscored 20-3 the rest of the way and lost 20-17. That is close but how good is USCe? They suck too. They are 2-4/5-4. The two SEC wins were over hapless Vanderbilt and a cratering Florida team.
Cincy's other scheduled game is against USF, lets look at USF:
The Bulls are horrible even by G5 standards. They are currently 1-4/2-7 and the two wins came against an equally bad Temple team (1-4/3-6) and FCS FAMU. The Bulls played two P5 opponents and got drilled both times. They lost 45-0 to NCST and trailed Florida 35-3 at halftime before outscoring UF 17-7 in a meaningless second half to make it look like a respectable loss at 42-20 but it wasn't. As I stated, the Gators led 35-3 at the half.
I used CBS's 1-130 rankings to rank all teams
CBS's 1-130 rankings to rank all teams. The three remaining scheduled games for Cincy, tOSU, and Bama are:
- Best remaining opponent: #7 MSU for Ohio State, #17 Auburn for Bama, #31 SMU for Cincy.
- Middle remaining opponent: #8 Michigan for Ohio State, #26 Arkansas for Bama, #77 ECU for Cincy.
- Worst remaining opponent: #28 Purdue for Ohio State, #111 USF for Cincy, #127 NMST for Bama.
Cincy's schedule so far isn't all that much worse than the average P5 but every P5 contender is going to play a VASTLY more difficult slate between now and selection than Cincy. I only listed scheduled games above but the P5's will also have much better opposition in their CG's. You might point to Houston (Cincy's likely CG opponent) and point out that they are ranked ahead of a number of potential and even likely P5 CG participants but the plain fact is that Houston is wildly overrated based on their numerous wins over cupcakes. When they stepped onto the field against a P5 opponent they got drilled 38-21 by Texas Tech. Sure, it was a close game most of the way but Texas Tech is a complete non-factor in the B12 at 2-4/5-4 with a 35 point loss to Texas, a 31 point loss to OU, and a 21 point loss to TCU.
Look, you can't have it both ways. Cincy is one of two things. They are either:
- A legitimate NC contender, or
- A G5 team that is good for the G5 but absolute crap compared to legitimate contenders.
If they are #1 then don't try to tell us that winning on their schedule is "no easy task". If they are a legit NC contender then the ONLY team on their entire schedule all year long that should challenge them AT ALL is Notre Dame.
The fact is that they are not a legitimate NC Contender. They are a G5 team that is pretty good by G5 standards but they aren't even dominating at that level.
These are tOSU's, Bama's, and Cincy's schedules using the aforementioned CBS 1-130 rankings:
One of these things is not like the others. Can you tell which one?
I'll add one final thing. Cincy's win over ND is a nice win but IMHO, it is a lot easier to pull off a win like that when last weeks' opponent didn't beat you up too badly and you don't realistically have to worry about next weeks' opponent. Cincy's game against ND came after a bye-week and before a god-awful Temple team. Their upcoming game against SMU is sandwiched between a god-awful USF and ECU. Ohio State has an upcoming three-game stretch of #28 PU, #7 MSU, #8 M. Bama had a three-game stretch earlier this year against #40 MsSt, #11 aTm, and #12 Ole Miss. Do you think it just might be a little easier when you can spend an extra week or two game-planning for a game because you don't have to worry about the team before them?
