Teams with 1st Loss Week 8:
Illinois
Florida Atlantic
Nebraska
Michigan State
Penn State
Rice
Iowa
Utah State
Wyoming
Minnesota
Fresno State
Maryland
Southern Methodist
UNLV
Air Force
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
11: BYU, Liberty/Coastal Carolina, and the conference champs (including conferences that have not yet started) outside the Sun Belt.
-I had 12 listed last week, but it actually should have been 11. The reason is that Liberty plays Coastal Carolina (the last unbeaten Sun Belt team).
Percent of Undefeateds with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 6.5% (5 of 77)
Week 2: 18.1% (13 of 72)
Week 3: 13.6% (8 of 59)
Week 4: 33.33% (17 of 51)
Week 5: 35.3% (12 of 34)
Week 6: 22.7% (5 of 22)
Week 7: 7.5% (5 of 67) -Added 50 teams to list.
Week 8: 24.2% (15 of 62)
Week 8 Thoughts:
-The Big Ten and Mountain West started this week, but let's start by looking at the conferences who have been playing. Of the conferences who have been playing, all but the ACC now have exactly 1 unbeaten. We also have 2 independents.
-Cincinnati beat SMU this week to take first place by themselves in the American and remain the conference's only unbeaten. This gives them by far the highest ranking and likely control of their own destiny for the the Group of 5 conference's NY6 bowl spot. Should they lose, things open up for others. Those others continue to narrow down. Coastal Carolina is the likely the only shot from the Sun Belt and now we can say Marshall is likely the only shot from Conference USA. They both would need help though. The MAC is out of it with only 6 conference games unless someone blows out everyone else on their schedule 50-0. The most likely competitor to an American champion remains in the Mountain West which started up this week. The big favorite to win the conference Boise State, won easily vs. Utah State. Boise State is the only team which would stand a chance in my view of passing an undefeated Cincinnati if they were to win out (I'd still bet against, but the committee would look hard).
-Big Ten play started and has given us some things to start watching for. Penn State losing this early hurts the conferences chances at 2 teams in the CFP some. Michigan looking good beating Minnesota for the Little Brown Jug and Wisconsin looking highly impressive vs. Illinois might help some.
-Oklahoma State beat Iowa State to stay unbeaten and in first in the Big 12. This win leaves them tied with only Kansas State in a year that looks better for the old Big 8 in the conference.
-Notre Dame blew out Pitt this week. They remain the only undefeated in the ACC except Clemson. Should they win out or lose only that game, they will likely get a Clemson rematch in the ACC Championship. In my view, the only real chance at the ACC getting two teams in the NY6 is if the two can split the series and both win out otherwise.
Week 9 Thoughts:
-We only have 2 games between undefeated teams this week. They are Indiana @ Rutgers and New Mexico @ San Jose State
-Undefeated Wisconsin @ 1-loss Nebraska: Nebraska looked improved vs. Ohio State. Wisconsin looked great against Illinois. Nebraska probably needs this win to win the division as they have a loss already, have harder crossovers, and losing the head to head against the team who might be their most direct competitor would make things very difficult to get to Indianapolis with only 8 conference games.
-Undefeated Indiana @ Undefeated Rutgers: Two teams that pulled off upsets last week. They won't win the conference, but are competing to be biggest surprise team in the conference.
Texas @ undefeated Oklahoma State: The Cowboys are still the one Big 12 undefeated and only go in as a small favorite vs. Texas this week.
1-loss Penn State @ undefeated Ohio State: Was Penn State's loss last week a fluke? Win this and they (not Ohio State) control their destiny still. Lose it and they are almost certainly out of the divisional race after just 2 weeks.
-Undefeated Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State: Coastal Carolina is only a 3 point favorite in this.
-1-loss Memphis @ undefeated Cincinnati: Memphis likely needs this one to stay in the American race (although can win a tie breaker with 2 losses in the no-divisional format of the American this year). Cincinnati wants to maintain its lead position.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 2, American: 1, Big Ten: 7, Big 12: 1, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 12, Mountain West: 7, PAC-12: 12, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 2, total: 47
Clemson
Oklahoma State
Cincinnati
Marshall
Brigham Young
Alabama
Notre Dame
Coastal Carolina
Liberty
Rutgers
Ohio State
Michigan
Indiana
Purdue
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Southern California
UCLA
California
Stanford
Arizona
Arizona State
Utah
Colorado
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State
Buffalo
Toledo
Ohio U.
Miami (OH)
Bowling Green
Akron
Kent State
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Western Michigan
Ball State
Northern Illinois
Boise State
Colorado State
Nevada
San Jose State
San Diego State
Hawaii
New Mexico
