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Topic: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 8

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Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 8
« on: October 20, 2020, 10:02:08 PM »
Teams with 1st Loss Week 7:
North Carolina

Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
12: The 10 conference champs (including conferences that have not yet started), plus Liberty and BYU.
-We dropped one from last week as UMass played its first game this week and lost.

Percent of Undefeateds with 1st Loss:
Week 1: 6.5% (5 of 77)
Week 2: 18.1% (13 of 72)
Week 3: 13.6% (8 of 59)
Week 4: 33.33% (17 of 51)
Week 5: 35.3% (12 of 34)
Week 6: 22.7% (5 of 22)
Week 7: 7.5% (5 of 67) -Added 50 teams to list.

Week 7 Thoughts:
-I added back in all the teams that are returning over next few weeks. UMass was the only one of them to play this week and they lost. I also moved Air Force back to the Mountain West column (had them as an independent until adding back in Mountain West).

-Every conference that has been playing except Conference USA now has exactly 1 or 2 remaining undefeated teams and we also have 2 undefeated independents left (now that I take Air Force off list). The only conference that has been playing that is not at that spot is Conference USA, but Rice has literally not played a game yet (weird how they will actually start up after UMass) and Florida Atlantic has only played one.

-Alabama beating Georgia this week combined with other results leaves us with 4 likely possibilities from the SEC with Rose/Sugar hopes. Alabama has the west as close to won as possible at this point in the year. They beat 1-loss Texas A&M and everyone else in the division has 2 losses. That means the Tide have to lose twice to not make it. In the east, the Georgia/Florida winner is overwhelming most likely to head to the SEC Championship game and if they win that, both can recover from their current 1-loss. The final team with playoff hopes is actually probably Texas A&M. It's doubtful they win the division or conference, but they have 1 loss right now and they should be favored in the rest of their game so need to be watched.

-North Carolina's surprise loss to Florida State (they almost came back at the end) leaves just Notre Dame (who beat Louisville in a close one this week) and Clemson left in the ACC.

-BYU came back and beat Houston this week. BYU needed this one for a possible at large NY6 and would be helped greatly if Houston looks good from here out. On the other side, the American is now down to 2 undefeated teams in Cincinnati and SMU. Cincinnati's game was canceled while SMU beat Tulane in overtime. They play against each other next week. As long as this weeks game is actually played, the American will be down to one undefeated team.

-Louisiana-Lafayette lost to Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt. These were the last two undefeated teams in the Sun Belt so Coastal Carolina now likely is the one Sun Belt team with a chance at a NY6 bowl. The conference probably would have preferred Louisiana-Lafayette to have won this game given their win over Iowa State might give them a bit of a bigger boost. Either way though, the conference needed the winner of this game to win out and then hope for a bit of a weaker American and Mountain West champ.

Week 8 Thoughts:
-The Big Ten and the Mountain West resumes play this week.

-We have 15 games between undefeated teams. Those include 7 Big Ten games and 6 Mountain West games. The other two are between Cincinnati and SMU and Florida Atlantic and Marshall.

Undefeated Cincinnati @ undefeated SMU: Last two undefeated teams in the American. Winner will likely control their NY6 destiny. Loser still very much in conference race as well as NY6 race, but not guaranteed NY6 with loss on resume.

Undefeated Florida Atlantic @ undefeated Marshall: It's very doubtful Rice stays unbeaten long after they start playing and a Conference USA champ likely has to go unbeaten to be in the NY6 discussion, so the winner of this game is likely the conference's only hope. Florida Atlantic has only played one game so far, but Marshall is 4-0.

Undefeated Nebraska @ undefeated Ohio State: Ohio State is overwhelming favorite here, but I credit these two programs more than any other with getting other conferences going. They were the 2 loudest voices in the Big Ten pushing to play fall ball. Without them, it probably wouldn't have happened and, if it didn't, we probably wouldn't have had the PAC-12, Mountain West, or MAC (or UMass) back either. That might not be true, but is my impression.

1-loss Iowa State @ undefeated Oklahoma State: The Cowboys are the Big 12's last unbeaten and best hope for a NY6 bowl. Iowa State might actually be competing for a conference crown too this year in a wide open Big 12. They have already beaten Oklahoma.

 Remaining Undefeated Teams:
ACC: 2, American: 2, Big Ten: 14 Big 12: 1, Conference USA: 3, MAC: 12, Mountain West: 12, PAC-12: 12, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 2, total: 62
Oklahoma State
Southern Methodist
Air Force
Brigham Young
Florida Atlantic
Notre Dame
Coastal Carolina
Penn State
Ohio State
Michigan State
Southern California
Arizona State
Oregon State
Washington State
Ohio U.
Miami (OH)
Bowling Green
Kent State
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Western Michigan
Ball State
Northern Illinois
Boise State
Colorado State
Utah State
San Jose State
Fresno State
San Diego State
New Mexico

[Image: 2018-ohio-state-signature.jpg


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