Teams with 1st loss week 3:
Air Force
Toledo
Michigan State
Brigham Young
Miami (FL)
Texas Tech
Liberty
Auburn
Western Kentucky
South Alabama
California
Kansas State
Georgia Southern
Marshall
Mississippi State
Southern Methodist
Louisiana-Lafayette
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 38.9% (51 of 131)
Week 2: 37.5% (30 of 80)
Week 3: 34% (17 of 50)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
8: The champs of the ACC, SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, PAC-12, Coastal Carolina, Tulane, and James Madison (who is not eligible for the Sun Belt Championship).
-We went from 12 to 8 this week, which is a rather big jump for one week. The Mountain West, MAC, and Conference USA lost their last remaining undefeated teams and both our last 2 undefeated independents lost.
Week 3 Thoughts:
-The PAC-12 had a good week. USC continues to roll and undefeated Washington looked great in beating Michigan State. Meanwhile, 1-loss Oregon convincingly beat a BYU team which had beat Baylor the week before. The conference now needs to be careful not to beat up too much on each other as conference play begins in earnest (it has been a problem the past few years).
-The last undefeated are gone in the MAC, Conference USA, and Mountain West. I think the former two are out of the NY6 running unless a 1-loss team in them finds a massive, massive victory somewhere. The Mountain West is probably the more disappointing conference though as the conference entered the CFP as roughly even with the American and took the first NY6 auto-bid with Boise State in 2014. They haven't been in one since then and now need a 1-loss champ to emerge and probably a good amount of help then.
-The most likely battle for the Group of 5 conference auto-New Year Six bowl spot is likely between the American champ and the Sun Belt champ. The Sun Belt went from 6 undefeated teams down to 2 this week, with one being an FBS transitioning James Madison who does not count for NY6 purposes. Coastal Carolina held on to win to be the last unbeaten. The American is also down to one undefeated team in Tulane who defeated Kansas State last week. Both conferences have strong 1-loss teams and I would be surprised at this point if we end up with any undefeated teams from Group of 5 conferences so we are are probably looking at the strongest one loss champ between the American, Sun Belt, and Mountain West (assuming any of them end up with one).
-The ACC Atlantic (final season I will have to look up names of the two divisions; I can never keep them straight even though I remember teams in them) is shaping up fairly interestingly. The ranked Coastal teams have losses, but the 3 ranked Atlantic teams are all still undefeated. Clemson is obviously the favorite in the division, but NC State and Wake Forest are still factors.
-Texas A&M recovered from their last week loss to Appalachian State to beat Miami (FL). That could be significant if we end up looking at a 1-loss ACC Champ vs. 1-loss non-champ from the SEC down the line, especially if it is directly one of those two. That likely won't matter if Miami doesn't compete well in the ACC, but they are still 2nd favorite to win the conference.
-Alabama and Georgia are obviously really, really good, but how the next level of the SEC should be ranked is rather open. Arkansas needed a comeback to beat an FCS team, but remains unbeaten, Florida was lucky to get past South Florida, and the Aggies still have the loss to Appalachian State. For now, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Ole Miss all remain ranked and undefeated.
-The favorites in the Big 12 prevailed this week. Oklahoma made the 10 point or so line they had vs Nebraska seem incredibly weak. Texas struggled some vs. a decent UTSA team, but took control.
-The Big Ten East got its first loss with Michigan State losing to Washington, but Penn State beating Auburn was helpful. On the west, Minnesota remains the only undefeated team after easily beating Colorado.
Week 4 Thoughts:
We only have 3 games between undefeated teams this week. Thoughts on games:
Undefeated Clemson @ Undefeated Wake Forest: This is a big game. The ACC would probably be better served to have Clemson win as they are more likely to win out, but if Wake wins, Clemson likely would need them to lose 2 more to get back in the divisional driver seat. Win this game and Wake Forest might jump very close to the favorite to win the ACC. Clemson is a touchdown favorite.
Undefeated USC @ Undefeated Oregon State: The Trojans are a little less than a touchdown favorite here. The PAC-12 has better playoff bowl odds if USC keeps winning, but Oregon State is one of the schools in the most danger if the PAC collapses and I'm sure would really love this win over the departing Trojans.
Undefeated Maryland @ Undefeated Michigan: Michigan is a very large favorite in this game. It's definitely better for the Big Ten CFP hopes for Michigan to stay toward top of rankings (especially with the west mostly sliding in the non-conference), but on the flip side, Maryland would jump into rankings with a win.
1-loss Baylor @ Undefeated Iowa State: Baylor's Big 12 odds are still not terrible and Iowa State would like to make this season something special.
1-loss Florida @ Undefeated Tennessee: Are the Vols the 2nd best team in the east? We can see how their game with Florida goes vs the way Kentucky's win in the Swamp looked.
1-loss Texas @ 1-loss Texas Tech: Texas is getting a lot of the benefit of the doubt due to their close game with Bama. Lose this game in which they are only a small favorite though and any hope of the CFP disappears.
Undefeated Minnesota @ 1-loss Michigan State: The only team from the west undefeated vs. the only team from the east with a loss. Minnesota has started this year great and winning the first conference game on the road will go a long way to bringing them to Indianapolis. Michigan State meanwhile would like to recover from the skid that started this week with the loss to Washington.
Undefeated Indiana @ 1-loss Cincinnati: The Bearcats are favored big in this one. This game very much matters for the American's NY6 chances. It also is big for Indiana's bowl chances.
1-loss Oregon @ undefeated Washington State: Washington State beat Wisconsin and Oregon is coming off a win vs. BYU. This is a chance for Washington State to really enter the PAC-12 title conversation.
1-loss Iowa @ undefeated Rutgers: Rutgers has started the year great and this would be a huge win. Iowa has its offense to blame for early woes, but is coming around and is favored here.
Undefeated Arkansas @ 1-loss Texas A&M: Arkansas had a nice win over Cincinnati and followed it up with too close of one over Missouri State. The Aggies have no margin for error now in playoff bowl hopes.
1-loss Wisconsin @ undefeated Ohio State: The Badgers lost to Washington State earlier and the Buckeyes have to answer questions about how good their first win really was with Notre Dame's recent disappointments. This game can answer a lot regardless of outcome.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 7, American: 1, Big 12: 5, Big Ten: 7, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 0, Mountain West: 0, PAC-12: 5, SEC: 6, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 0, total: 33
Clemson
Florida State
Maryland
North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Duke
North Carolina
Iowa State
Kansas
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Rutgers
Syracuse
Indiana
Michigan
Minnesota
Ohio State
Penn State
Tulane
Texas Christian
Oregon State
Southern California
UCLA
Washington
Washington State
Georgia
Kentucky
Tennessee
Alabama
Arkansas
Mississippi
Coastal Carolina
(James Madison)
