-The biggest story to me with Alabama seems to be them coming back down to Earth. They have been the team of the last decade and a half. Ohio State has been steadily fantastic and Clemson was just as high a few years there, but not even they were quite at the level of Alabama year in and year out. It is feeling more and more like the Saban era of dominance though is lowering a bit now. The Tide can certainly still win out and get to the playoff bowls and win it all. It is not really expected now though, which is a turn from how it would have been not to long ago. Don't get me wrong, Alabama is still in a position almost the entire rest of college football would trade places for, but it feels to me like something has changed and Alabama now has one of the top programs in the sport instead of the top program in the sport. Now watch them blow out the rest of the schedule and make this whole paragraph seem silly.
As you say, this could be an aberration and the Tide and Saban could return to form in a snap-- they certainly have the talent to do so. But from what I saw of him on the sideline in Saturday's game-- his body language, his demeanor-- he really just looked like a tired, old man. I'm not so sure he won't choose to just ride off into the sunset in the relatively near future.
This. There is a big difference between being THE top program in the sport and being one of the top programs in the sport and Alabama appears to have made that change.
It is really a tectonic shift that has happened in just about two years and it goes beyond just Bama.
Back up two years. Alabama went 13-0 in the 2020 COVID year on a schedule of 11 SEC games and two CFP games. That is no joke. Ohio State lost only to Alabama in the CFPCG and Clemson lost two games. One was to Ohio State in a CFP Semi-final and the other was a mid-season league road game against the other CFP participant without their starting QB. That was a close loss that they avenged easily in the ACCCG.
At the end of the 2020 season Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State were easily the big-three. From the initial CFP in 2014 which both tOSU and Bama were part of and which tOSU won through the 2020 version which all three were a part of and Bama won, those three were the dominant programs. Between them they had made 19 of 28 CFP appearances, won 11 of 14 semi-finals, and won six of seven CFP Championships.
From 2014 through 2020 there were 21 CFP games. 17 of those 21 CFP games were won by Bama (8), Clemson (6), and Ohio State (3). The only exceptions were LSU (two in their one great year, their only appearance), UGA (one semi-final), and Oregon (one semi-final in the first year of the CFP).
Clemson's slide started first. They lost their 2021 opener to UGA (in Charlotte), four games in they were 2-2, and seven games in they were 4-3 and completely out of the CFP discussion. They failed to win the ACC and failed to make the CFP field for the first time since 2014.
Alabama's slide was more subtle. They lost an early 2021 league road game to aTm but recovered to make the SECCG where they pounded #1 UGA. Then they got a joke of an opponent and easily won their CFP semi-final but they lost a two-score game to UGA in the CFPCG.
Ohio State lost an early 2021 OOC game to Oregon but recovered to rattle off nine straight wins and hit THE GAME at 10-1, #2 in the country, and favored to win for the 9th consecutive time. But then they didn't.
From 2014-2020 Bama, Clemson, and Ohio State combined to average more than two CFP appearances per year. In the two years since Bama and Ohio State have made one each while being close the other two years. Bama was #5 in 2022 while tOSU was #6 in 2021. Clemson was #19 and #7.
Those three teams also thoroughly dominated their respective leagues from about 2014-2020 but in the two years since they have only won a combined two out of six possible league titles.
Fast-forward to this year, Bama and Clemson have each taken a loss. Clemson has fallen out of the rankings completely and Bama is at #10 and Ohio State is looking a little shaky and down to #6. I don't want to take the time to look it up but I would guess that it has been a LONG time since we've had an AP top-5 with neither Bama, Clemson, nor Ohio State. From 2014-2020 there were 115 polls:
- Bama was #1 in 59 (51%), top-5 in 103 (90%), top-10 in 113 (98%), and ranked in all 115.
- Clemson was #1 in 23 (20%), top-5 in 88 (77%), top-10 in 93 (81%), and ranked in 111 (97%).
- Ohio State was #1 in 11 (10%), top-5 in 69 (60%), top-10 in 101 (88%), and ranked in 113 (98%) and I think the only exceptions were when the B1G was NOT playing due to COVID.
Other teams, #1:
- 9 (8%) for FSU and I'm pretty sure that was the first eight
- 8 (7%) for LSU, their one great year
- 5 (4%) for MissSt
- That is it.
Other teams top-5:
- 41 (36%) Georgia was next after the top-3 and WELL behind even tOSU.
- 38 (33%) OU
- 29 (25%) ND
- 24 (21%) LSU
- No other was over 20%
Other teams top-10:
- 71 (62%) Oklahoma was next after the top-3 and note that they were farther (22) behind #3 Clemson than Clemson was behind #1 Bama (20).
- 70 (61%) UGA
- 66 (57%) ND
- No other was even close to 50%
Other teams in the rankings:
- 108 (94%) Oklahoma was next after the top-3.
- 94 (82%) UGA and ND
- 91 (79%) LSU and Wisconsin
- 80 (70%) Auburn
- 79 (69%) Florida
- 78 (68%) Michigan
- No other was above two-thirds.