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-The biggest story to me with Alabama seems to be them coming back down to Earth. They have been the team of the last decade and a half. Ohio State has been steadily fantastic and Clemson was just as high a few years there, but not even they were quite at the level of Alabama year in and year out. It is feeling more and more like the Saban era of dominance though is lowering a bit now. The Tide can certainly still win out and get to the playoff bowls and win it all. It is not really expected now though, which is a turn from how it would have been not to long ago. Don't get me wrong, Alabama is still in a position almost the entire rest of college football would trade places for, but it feels to me like something has changed and Alabama now has one of the top programs in the sport instead of the top program in the sport. Now watch them blow out the rest of the schedule and make this whole paragraph seem silly.

Alabama played a pretty sloppy game, quite a few false start/illegal snap penalties.  When they panned to the sideline I expected to see Saban absolutely lighting up his players for those mistakes, as I've seen in the past.  But he was WAY more subdued than I thought he would be.

As you say, this could be an aberration and the Tide and Saban could return to form in a snap-- they certainly have the talent to do so.  But from what I saw of him on the sideline in Saturday's game-- his body language, his demeanor-- he really just looked like a tired, old man.  I'm not so sure he won't choose to just ride off into the sunset in the relatively near future.

This.  There is a big difference between being THE top program in the sport and being one of the top programs in the sport and Alabama appears to have made that change. 

It is really a tectonic shift that has happened in just about two years and it goes beyond just Bama. 

Back up two years.  Alabama went 13-0 in the 2020 COVID year on a schedule of 11 SEC games and two CFP games.  That is no joke.  Ohio State lost only to Alabama in the CFPCG and Clemson lost two games.  One was to Ohio State in a CFP Semi-final and the other was a mid-season league road game against the other CFP participant without their starting QB.  That was a close loss that they avenged easily in the ACCCG. 

At the end of the 2020 season Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State were easily the big-three.  From the initial CFP in 2014 which both tOSU and Bama were part of and which tOSU won through the 2020 version which all three were a part of and Bama won, those three were the dominant programs.  Between them they had made 19 of 28 CFP appearances, won 11 of 14 semi-finals, and won six of seven CFP Championships. 

Clemson's slide started first.  They lost their 2021 opener to UGA (in Charlotte), four games in they were 2-2, and seven games in they were 4-3 and completely out of the CFP discussion.  They failed to win the ACC and failed to make the CFP field for the first time since 2014. 

Alabama's slide was more subtle.  They lost an early 2021 league road game to aTm but recovered to make the SECCG where they pounded #1 UGA.  Then they got a joke of an opponent and easily won their CFP semi-final but they lost a two-score game to UGA in the CFPCG. 

Ohio State lost an early 2021 OOC game to Oregon but recovered to rattle off nine straight wins and hit THE GAME at 10-1, #2 in the country, and favored to win for the 9th consecutive time.  But then they didn't.

From 2014-2020 Bama, Clemson, and Ohio State combined to average more than two CFP appearances per year.  In the two years since Bama and Ohio State have made one each while being close the other two years. Bama was #5 in 2022 while tOSU was #6 in 2021.  Clemson was #19 and #7. 

Those three teams also thoroughly dominated their respective leagues from about 2014-2020 but in the two years since they have only won a combined two out of six possible league titles. 

Fast-forward to this year, Bama and Clemson have each taken a loss.  Clemson has fallen out of the rankings completely and Bama is at #10 and Ohio State is looking a little shaky and down to #6.  I don't want to take the time to look it up but I would guess that it has been a LONG time since we've had an AP top-5 with neither Bama, Clemson, nor Ohio State.  From 2014-2020 there were 115 polls:

• Bama was #1 in 59 (51%), top-5 in 103 (90%), top-10 in 113 (98%), and ranked in all 115. 
• Clemson was #1 in 23 (20%), top-5 in 88 (77%), top-10 in 93 (81%), and ranked in 111 (97%). 
• Ohio State was #1 in 11 (10%), top-5 in 69 (60%), top-10 in 101 (88%), and ranked in 113 (98%) and I think the only exceptions were when the B1G was NOT playing due to COVID. 

Other teams, #1:

• 9 (8%) for FSU and I'm pretty sure that was the first eight
• 8 (7%) for LSU, their one great year
• 5 (4%) for MissSt
• That is it. 

Other teams top-5:

• 41 (36%) Georgia was next after the top-3 and WELL behind even tOSU. 
• 38 (33%) OU
• 29 (25%) ND
• 24 (21%) LSU
• No other was over 20%

Other teams top-10:

• 71 (62%) Oklahoma was next after the top-3 and note that they were farther (22) behind #3 Clemson than Clemson was behind #1 Bama (20). 
• 70 (61%) UGA
• 66 (57%) ND
• No other was even close to 50%

Other teams in the rankings:

• 108 (94%) Oklahoma was next after the top-3. 
• 94 (82%) UGA and ND
• 91 (79%) LSU and Wisconsin
• 80 (70%) Auburn
• 79 (69%) Florida
• 78 (68%) Michigan
• No other was above two-thirds. 

My only concern with this analysis is that it might be falling into the behavior I tend to complain about, which is reasoning backwards from results to form a narrative. 

The truth is that margins in this sport are RAZOR thin at the top. Flip one close outcome in a year for Bama/OSU/Clemson into the L column and one close outcome for UGA/OU into the W column and it looks a lot different. Particularly if that outcome is earlier in the year where you'll have a hangover effect that affects the polls for many weeks. 

Which is exactly what you point out for all three teams. Clemson's slide may be more permanent, of course, but we all knew that they were not recruiting on the level of the top dogs year in and year out, and in a weak ACC where they could pad wins. But OSU in 2021 had an early loss but looked fully recovered until, well, they lost to Michigan. In 2022 they looked great until, well, they lost to Michigan. Bama in 2021 had a close mid-season road loss but ran the table the rest of the way, including beating UGA, before losing to UGA in a rematch in the CFPCG. In 2022, Bama had two close road losses to teams ranked in the top 10 at the time, certainly no slouches, and were perfect the rest of the way. 

I'm not sure you can argue that OSU or Bama really had a "slide". OSU was beating up on a down Michigan team for much of a 20-year span, and now Michigan isn't down. Bama in their "slide" went 1-1 against the national champs in 2021 (who themselves were "down" like Michigan until the coaching change), and were a hair's breadth from undefeated in the regular season in 2022. 

Razor's edge. I'm not sure OSU/Bama were "as good" as we believe from 2014-2020, nor do I necessarily think they're on some terribly horrific slide 2021+. I think the competition they were facing got a little better, not that they've necessarily slid.

My only concern with this analysis is that it might be falling into the behavior I tend to complain about, which is reasoning backwards from results to form a narrative.

The truth is that margins in this sport are RAZOR thin at the top. Flip one close outcome in a year for Bama/OSU/Clemson into the L column and one close outcome for UGA/OU into the W column and it looks a lot different. Particularly if that outcome is earlier in the year where you'll have a hangover effect that affects the polls for many weeks.

Which is exactly what you point out for all three teams. Clemson's slide may be more permanent, of course, but we all knew that they were not recruiting on the level of the top dogs year in and year out, and in a weak ACC where they could pad wins. But OSU in 2021 had an early loss but looked fully recovered until, well, they lost to Michigan. In 2022 they looked great until, well, they lost to Michigan. Bama in 2021 had a close mid-season road loss but ran the table the rest of the way, including beating UGA, before losing to UGA in a rematch in the CFPCG. In 2022, Bama had two close road losses to teams ranked in the top 10 at the time, certainly no slouches, and were perfect the rest of the way.

I'm not sure you can argue that OSU or Bama really had a "slide". OSU was beating up on a down Michigan team for much of a 20-year span, and now Michigan isn't down. Bama in their "slide" went 1-1 against the national champs in 2021 (who themselves were "down" like Michigan until the coaching change), and were a hair's breadth from undefeated in the regular season in 2022.

Razor's edge. I'm not sure OSU/Bama were "as good" as we believe from 2014-2020, nor do I necessarily think they're on some terribly horrific slide 2021+. I think the competition they were facing got a little better, not that they've necessarily slid.

All good points.

My only concern with this analysis is that it might be falling into the behavior I tend to complain about, which is reasoning backwards from results to form a narrative.

The truth is that margins in this sport are RAZOR thin at the top. Flip one close outcome in a year for Bama/OSU/Clemson into the L column and one close outcome for UGA/OU into the W column and it looks a lot different. Particularly if that outcome is earlier in the year where you'll have a hangover effect that affects the polls for many weeks.

Which is exactly what you point out for all three teams. Clemson's slide may be more permanent, of course, but we all knew that they were not recruiting on the level of the top dogs year in and year out, and in a weak ACC where they could pad wins. But OSU in 2021 had an early loss but looked fully recovered until, well, they lost to Michigan. In 2022 they looked great until, well, they lost to Michigan. Bama in 2021 had a close mid-season road loss but ran the table the rest of the way, including beating UGA, before losing to UGA in a rematch in the CFPCG. In 2022, Bama had two close road losses to teams ranked in the top 10 at the time, certainly no slouches, and were perfect the rest of the way.

I'm not sure you can argue that OSU or Bama really had a "slide". OSU was beating up on a down Michigan team for much of a 20-year span, and now Michigan isn't down. Bama in their "slide" went 1-1 against the national champs in 2021 (who themselves were "down" like Michigan until the coaching change), and were a hair's breadth from undefeated in the regular season in 2022.

Razor's edge. I'm not sure OSU/Bama were "as good" as we believe from 2014-2020, nor do I necessarily think they're on some terribly horrific slide 2021+. I think the competition they were facing got a little better, not that they've necessarily slid.

As I said upthread:

All good points.

Having thought about it a bit, my counter-argument is that the consistency is the proof.  

You are right that the margins at the top are razor thin.  Ohio State from 2014-2020 is a really good example because in the years when they made the CFP they were probably one more loss from missing the CPF and in the years when they missed they were probably one more win from making it.  That is a very good point when looking at an individual season but it becomes less relevant when you are looking at multiple seasons.  Clemson made six consecutive CFP appearances from 2015-2020:

• In 2015 they made it at 13-0 but if they had lost the ACCCG (which they only won by one score so this isn't outlandish), they'd have been competing with other 1-loss non-champions Iowa and tOSU along with 2-loss Champion Stanford for that fourth spot.  The committee ranked 11-2 Pac Champ Stanford ahead of 12-1 Iowa and 11-1 tOSU (both non-champions) so they might have also ranked them ahead of 12-1 non-champion Clemson.  
• In 2016 they made it at 12-1 with a home loss to Pitt (who also beat PSU that year but in spite of beating the two best teams on their schedule finished with five losses).  Once again, if they had lost the ACCCG (which once again they only won by one score), they'd have been an 11-2 non-champion and almost certainly behind 11-2 B1G Champion PSU and out.  
• In 2017 they made it at 12-1 with a loss to a horrible (sub .500 Syracuse) team but 12-1 non-champion Wisconsin, 11-2 B1G champion tOSU, and 11-2 Pac Champion USC were all left out so if Clemson had lost an additional game they'd have likely been out.  
• In 2018 they made it at 13-0.  One loss might have kept them out because tOSU missed the CFP at 12-1 even with a B1G Championship.  
• In 2019 they made it at 13-0.  One loss probably wouldn't have kept them out because while LSU and tOSU were also undefeated, Oklahoma was the only P5 team with one-loss so if Clemson had finished with one loss they likely would have made it anyway.  
• In 2020 they made it at 10-1 with a loss to Notre Dame which was a conference game that year due to a temporary arrangement to deal with COVID.  A second loss would likely have kept them out because aTm (8-1) and Indiana (6-1) both finished as P5's with one loss and Cincy finished undefeated so a 2-loss Clemson would likely have been behind at least one of those along with Bama, tOSU, and ND.  

Your point about razor thin margins is absolutely correct and very much backed up by this . . . on an individual year basis.  In five of these six years you can accurately say that Clemson was just one bad week away from missing the CFP.  However, I think that kinda falls into "If my aunt had balls" territory.  Yes they would have but they DID NOT.  There are lucky (and unlucky) breaks.  Footballs are pointy rather than round and sometimes they take wild bounces.  On an individual year basis that might get a team in or keep a team out.  Clemson may have made this or that CFP appearance based on those things but Clemson didn't make six straight playoff appearances based on lucky breaks and bounces.  They made six straight CFP appearances because they played REALLY good football for six straight years.  

Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State (usually in that order with a few exceptions) were the top-3 teams from 2014-2020 in all of the following that I listed above:

• CFP appearances
• CFP wins
• CFP Championships (LSU was tied with tOSU for #3)
• AP appearances at #1
• AP appearances in the top-5
• AP appearances in the top-10
• AP appearances

Sometimes the stars align for one magical season and that is why I kinda discount LSU's phenomenal run in 2019.  When you are talking about being at the very top of the CFB world over seven years in all of the above, you can't simply say that "they got lucky" because you can't get lucky that many times in a row.  

Which is exactly what you point out for all three teams. Clemson's slide may be more permanent, of course, but we all knew that they were not recruiting on the level of the top dogs year in and year out, and in a weak ACC where they could pad wins. But OSU in 2021 had an early loss but looked fully recovered until, well, they lost to Michigan. In 2022 they looked great until, well, they lost to Michigan. Bama in 2021 had a close mid-season road loss but ran the table the rest of the way, including beating UGA, before losing to UGA in a rematch in the CFPCG. In 2022, Bama had two close road losses to teams ranked in the top 10 at the time, certainly no slouches, and were perfect the rest of the way.

I'm not sure you can argue that OSU or Bama really had a "slide". OSU was beating up on a down Michigan team for much of a 20-year span, and now Michigan isn't down. Bama in their "slide" went 1-1 against the national champs in 2021 (who themselves were "down" like Michigan until the coaching change), and were a hair's breadth from undefeated in the regular season in 2022.

Razor's edge. I'm not sure OSU/Bama were "as good" as we believe from 2014-2020, nor do I necessarily think they're on some terribly horrific slide 2021+. I think the competition they were facing got a little better, not that they've necessarily slid.

I completely agree on the relative "slides".  In the last two years Alabama has lost three league road games to very good opponents, one CFPCG, and now a home game to a (now) top-5 team.  Calling that a "slide" is a bit of a stretch.  

In that same time Ohio State has lost a CFP game to the eventual NC, two league games to that year's league champion and CFP participant and one one OOC home game to a pretty good Oregon team.  I'll come back to the "Ohio State isn't down, Michigan is up" point.  

Clemson's situation appears to be more significant.  In that same time only one of their losses was to a CFP participant (eventual champ UGA).  The rest were to three, four, and five loss NCST, Pitt, ND, and USCe teams, to a very good TN, and now to a Dook team that nobody expected anything out of this year.  Maybe we were all wrong about Dook and they'll win the ACC but wait and see.  

Your point about Michigan being down for most of Ohio State's recent dominance of them is completely fair.  Counting the vacated 2010 win, the Buckeyes went 16-2 against them from 2002-2020.  As an Ohio State fan of course I love that but to be fair, these were mostly not wins over NC contenders or even good teams.  The 16 wins came against Michigan teams that finished with:

• 2 losses once:  2006
• 3 losses five times:  2018, 2016, 2015, 2004, 2002
• 4 losses twice: 2019, 2007
• 5 losses thrice:  2017, 2012, 2005
• 6 losses twice:  2013, 2010
• 7 losses twice:  2014, 2009
• 9 losses once:  2008

Fully half of the Michigan teams that tOSU beat in that 16-2 stretch finished with five or more losses.  It is a rivalry so it mattered to us and to them but to everyone else that wasn't Ohio State beating a great team it was simply Ohio State winning a game they should OBVIOUSLY win.