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Topic: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 0
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ohio1317 · « **on:** August 21, 2023, 12:35:58 AM »

This is the thread for people who love lists and it is probably the last year this list will be all that instructive. Each week I'll post the teams with their 1st loss and the remaining undefeated teams. As the season progresses, I’ll add a 1-loss team list and a winless team list and note potential bigger games for the various teams. We can see how this lists changes through the year.

The winless list is just to watch those teams, but the undefeated and 1-loss lists have been crucial since the start of the BCS. So far, every team to make the BCS National Championship Game/Bowl and the College Football Playoff has been an undefeated or 1-loss team from an AQ/Power 5 conference except for 2007 LSU (had 2 losses) and 2021 Cincinnati (outside a power 5 conference). Every non-AQ/Group of 5 representative to a BCS/NY6 bowl has finished with no more than 1 loss except for 2014 Boise State and 2022 Tulane.

With the CFP going to 12 next year and the conferences consolidating tremendously even since the end of last season, I doubt this list is that useful next year (although I will probably try it for fun one more year though). For this year though, we will see if our general patterns of the past almost 2 and half decades continue to hold for the end of the era.

Conference changes this year:

-Well this is it. I started seriously following college football in my senior year of high school in 2002. The sport looks different now than it did then, but I'd argue what it looks like now is a lot closer to what it looked like then than what it looks like now vs. what it will look like only next year. This year we have 5 power conferences. This year everyone of them has at least a mega brand name team or two. We have a 4 team playoff and everyone around the country has to watch and hope for others to lose to feel better about their chances. No one can be 100% certain that a single loss won't knock them out. Next year, things will be very different. We will have six conference champs in automatically (possible this changes slightly, but I doubt it given they need unanimous consent for the next 2 years) and enough at larges for a loss or two to not be as devastating. We'll have 4 power conferences and most the biggest names will be in only two of them (the Big Ten and SEC).

For all the changes next year, this year, we have some changes that normally would seem quite large. The Big 12 has added independent BYU and former American teams in Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston. The American has added 6 from Conference USA in Charlotte, Florida Atlantic, North Texas, Rice, UAB, and UTSA. Conference USA has added independents Liberty and New Mexico State and has 2 former FCS teams starting their transition to FBS in Jacksonville State and Sam Houston. Both should have 2 year transition periods. James Madison is now in their 2nd year of their own FBS transition which still leaves them unable to go to a bowl or the Sun Belt Championship game (they tried for a waiver which failed).

Future changes: Next year, the SEC will add Texas and Oklahoma. The Big Ten will add USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington. The Big 12 will Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, and Utah. There will no doubt be further moves as the remaining 4 PAC-12 members scramble, but what they are is still unknown. That is pretty much unprecedented to not know the conferences for next year at this point, but that is how fast this moved.

Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
14: One from each conference plus James Madison (who is not eligible for the Sun Belt Championship, which could theoretically result in 2 Sun Belt undefeateds), Notre Dame, and 2 of UMass, UConn, and Army. A bowl ban by someone might increase this theoretical max a bit.

Note: As kind of an ode to how long I've been doing this list, while the numbers are from the current conferences, the teams are in order of their conferences from around when I started (2006). Anyone new to FBS after that is listed on the bottom.

Note 2: I will probably wait till after week 1 for an update as the numbers reflect better putting week 0 and 1 together.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 14, American: 14, Big 12: 14, Big Ten: 14, Conference USA: 9, MAC: 12, Mountain West: 12, PAC-12: 12, SEC: 14, Sun Belt: 14, independents: 4, total: 133
Boston College
Clemson
Florida State
Maryland
North Carolina State
Wake Forest
Duke
Georgia Tech
Miami (FL)
North Carolina
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Colorado
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
Nebraska
Baylor
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas Tech
Cincinnati
Connecticut
Louisville
Pittsburgh
Rutgers
South Florida
Syracuse
West Virginia
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Michigan State
Minnesota
Northwestern
Ohio State
Penn State
Purdue
Wisconsin
UAB
East Carolina
Marshall
Memphis
Southern Mississippi
Central Florida
Houston
Rice
Southern Methodist
Tulane
Tulsa
UTEP
Akron
Bowling Green
Buffalo
Kent State
Miami (OH)
Ohio U.
Ball State
Central Michigan
Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois
Toledo
Western Michigan
Air Force
Brigham Young
Colorado State
New Mexico
San Diego State
Texas Christian
UNLV
Utah
Wyoming
Arizona
Arizona State
California
Oregon
Oregon State
Southern California
Stanford
UCLA
Washington
Washington State
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Alabama
Arkansas
Auburn
Louisiana State
Mississippi State
Mississippi
Arkansas State
Florida Atlantic
Florida International
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Middle Tennessee
North Texas
Troy
Boise State
Fresno State
Hawaii
Louisiana Tech
Nevada
New Mexico State
San Jose State
Utah State
Army
Navy
Notre Dame
Temple
Western Kentucky
Massachusetts
South Alabama
Texas State
UTSA
Georgia State
Appalachian State
Georgia Southern
Old Dominion
Charlotte
Coastal Carolina
Liberty
(James Madison)
(Jacksonville State)
(Sam Houston)

Cincydawg · « **Reply #1 on:** August 21, 2023, 06:11:51 AM »

At the beginning of each season, I sort of think this is silly, and then about week 7 or so, I see why it's of interest.

I'm slow. And yes, 2024 is going to be .... odd.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #2 on:** August 21, 2023, 09:14:04 AM »

Quote from: Cincydawg on August 21, 2023, 06:11:51 AM

At the beginning of each season, I sort of think this is silly, and then about week 7 or so, I see why it's of interest.

I'm slow. And yes, 2024 is going to be .... odd.

I really appreciate @ohio1317 doing this and the addition a few years ago of the maximum made it even more useful but as CFB has evolved, it has become less useful.

1317 said he graduated HS in 2003 and I'm 10 years older so I started doing this list mentally in 1993 when he was in elementary school. That fall I was a freshman at Ohio State and the Buckeyes spent most of the year right in the thick of the NC race. I remember figuring out the most probable paths to a National Championship.

For old times sake:
In the last poll before Ohio State's tie with #15 Wisconsin, tOSU was #3 behind only Florida State and Notre Dame. The Seminoles and Irish were scheduled to play each other (the game that kicked off ESPN College Gameday) and Florida State still had their rivalry game with the #9 Gators. As an Ohio State fan/student, this was pretty simple:

Root for the Seminoles against the Irish
Root for the Gators against the Seminoles.

If FSU beats ND and loses to UF, then the Buckeyes control their own destiny.

The Buckeyes tied Wisconsin and dropped to #5 behind:

9-0 FSU
9-0 Notre Dame
7-1 Miami
9-0 Nebraska

That was really my first lesson in the importance of being undefeated. On the same day that Ohio State tied a very good Wisconsin team, Nebraska BARELY escaped Kansas with a 21-20 win. That Kansas team was terrible. They finished below .500. By comparison the Wisconsin team that tied Ohio State finished 10-1-1 with both BigTen and Rose Bowl Championships.

Realistically the Buckeyes tie with Wisconsin was much better than Nebraska's narrow escape from Kansas but the voters didn't see it that way. To them Nebraska was 9-0 so they just naturally moved ahead of 8-0-1 Ohio State.

Still, there was a somewhat plausible path to the NC for the Buckeyes:

That FSU/ND game was still looming.
FSU still had to play #8 Florida
Miami already had a loss (@FSU) and they still had to visit WVU.
Nebraska still had to play #17 Oklahoma.
UCLA was the likely Pac representative to the Rose Bowl and they were #10 so Ohio State's likely bowl opponent was at least good enough to be a quality win.

FearlessF · « **Reply #3 on:** August 21, 2023, 09:20:24 AM »

a narrow escape is always better than a tie

see Nebraska 1997

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #4 on:** August 21, 2023, 09:30:46 AM »

Quote from: FearlessF on August 21, 2023, 09:20:24 AM

a narrow escape is always better than a tie

see Nebraska 1997

The voters certainly always agreed which functionally made that true. 1993, however, was my first real introduction to that reality and I had a hard time accepting it. As a practical matter, Ohio State's performance in tying a very good Wisconsin team was pretty clearly better than Nebraska's performance in barely escaping a really bad Kansas team so to my admittedly biased view, Nebraska shouldn't have passed Ohio State.

Cincydawg · « **Reply #5 on:** August 21, 2023, 09:34:51 AM »

Voters gonna vote.... and yes, a tie with a credible team is a better sign than a close win to a bad team, but voters don't do it as noted.

I like so called power polls that try and take this into account.

FearlessF · « **Reply #6 on:** August 21, 2023, 10:04:22 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 21, 2023, 09:30:46 AM

The voters certainly always agreed which functionally made that true. 1993, however, was my first real introduction to that reality and I had a hard time accepting it. As a practical matter, Ohio State's performance in tying a very good Wisconsin team was pretty clearly better than Nebraska's performance in barely escaping a really bad Kansas team so to my admittedly biased view, Nebraska shouldn't have passed Ohio State.

probably true, but would it have mattered in the end?

Huskers proved to be deserving vs Oklahoma and FSU in the Orange
trust me, it was fun in the 80s and 90s as a husker fan trying to figure what had to happen to get to the top at the end of the season, but the only poll that mattered was the final poll

847badgerfan · « **Reply #7 on:** August 21, 2023, 10:10:30 AM »

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on August 21, 2023, 09:14:04 AM

The Buckeyes tied Wisconsin and dropped to #5 behind:
9-0 FSU
9-0 Notre Dame
7-1 Miami
9-0 Nebraska

UW would have been the only undefeated team had they not had that inexplicable loss to the Goophs. I still don't know how that happened.

medinabuckeye1 · « **Reply #8 on:** August 21, 2023, 10:22:10 AM »

Quote from: 847badgerfan on August 21, 2023, 10:10:30 AM

UW would have been the only undefeated team had they not had that inexplicable loss to the Goophs. I still don't know how that happened.

Same way Ohio State lost to Michigan that year.

Same way Nebraska barely escaped a Kansas team that their second string should have been able to demolish.

Same way that year's Notre Dame team lost to (checks notes) Boston College the week after winning the HUGE showdown with Florida State.

Games simply don't always go the way they "should".

As a related aside, it took me a LONG time as an Ohio State fan to realize how good of a team Alvarez had:

Wisconsin got to 6-0 before the Minnesota debacle but they were only #15 and not really on my radar because the wins were over:

Nevada
SMU
ISU
Indiana
Northwestern
Purdue

By the time the Badgers got a really good win (10/30 vs M) they already had a really bad loss (10/23 at MN) so to this outsider they still didn't look all that good.

Then they tied Ohio State, beat Illinois, beat Michigan State, and won the Rose Bowl.

rolltidefan · « **Reply #9 on:** August 21, 2023, 11:58:54 AM »

this list got me thinking, what is the maximum number of undefeated teams possible.

finding the cutoff for reg season (pre conf champ games) seems easy at first. but maybe it's not. at first i think it's 1 for each conference and/or division. and all of the independents unless they play each other. but maybe that's not possible either. in theory, can't just pick top ranked teams in each conference/division as some play each other (texas/bama). and is there a way for a non-divisional/non-round robin conference to have 3 undefeated?

best i can guess:
(starting with p5 and moving down, going with divisional conferences and then moving to non-div, using highest rank to begin with until conflict arises, when conflict arises will use higher ranked team as "winner" when possible, when ranking isn't available, used last year results and then just random picks from my biased brain)

b1g:
mich and wisc

sec:
uga and bama

acc:
fsu and unc (first conflict, cant be clemson cause they play fsu)

big 12:
ksu and oklahoma (2nd and 3rd conflict, can't use texas (bama) and can't use tcu (ksu))

pac12:
~~usc and oregon st (4, 5, and 6, washington, utah, oregon, all play usc)~~
re-doing this due to nd/usc conflict. usc out (despite usc ranked higher, moving them out and taking nd results in more potential undefeateds), which makes washington primary, but they play all the next in line including oreon st, so ore st is out too. so going with washington and ucla

independent:
army, uconn, notre dame (1st conflict with a change above it)

mid america:
ohio and toledo

sun belt:
south alabama and old dominion (lot of conflict here, these 2 only 2 that work together with those above, or at least first one of a long line that did)

mwc:
fresno st and hawaii

aac:
charlotte and temple

cusa:
la tech

those last few conferences were just 'who doesn't play each other and also not play anyone on list above'. i'm sure i missed some connecting game somewhere.

so that's 22 possible before conf champ games. ccg knocks out 9, down to 13 possible pre-bowl. playoff would knock out 3 more, and i haven't analyzed bowls but in theory they could all be in different bowls and win, so total potential max undefeateds at year end is 10. is that right? i guess you could argue something like both bama and uga get in cfp regardless of seccg, so that increases by 1. same for other p5, but only 2 possible, so +2. but then you might run into bcs bowl tie-ins canceling that out. dunno, didn't run those.

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Topic: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 0

ohio1317

Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 0

Cincydawg

Re: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 0

medinabuckeye1

Re: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 0

FearlessF

Re: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 0

medinabuckeye1

Re: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 0

Cincydawg

Re: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 0

FearlessF

Re: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 0

847badgerfan

Re: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 0

medinabuckeye1

Re: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 0

rolltidefan

Re: Remaining Undefeated Teams Before Week 0