Teams with 1st Loss Week 3:
Wake Forest
Houston
UTSA
Michigan State
Louisiana State
Texas A&M
Colorado State
Southern Methodist
Troy
New Mexico
Virginia
North Carolina
South Carolina
Auburn
Georgia State
Colorado
Maryland
Percent with 1st Loss:
Week 0/1: 38.4% (53 of 138)
Week 2: 38.8% (33 of 85)
Week 3: 32.7% (17 of 52)
Maximium Number of Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season: 9
-(For now assuming only one per conference even though possibilities exist of more). We are down one from last week as we lost our last undefeated from the PAC-12. That leaves us with the possibility of the champ of each conference except Conference USA and the PAC-12 plus Notre Dame.
Team 3 Thoughts:
-I added the winless list this week. There are seven teams on it with no more than one per conference. The only team in a power 4 conference on it is Rutgers. I'll add the 1-loss list within a few weeks.
-In the first two years of the 12 team playoff, the Big Ten took 4 spots and then 3 while the SEC took 3 and then 5. Between the two of them we were looking at 7-8 spots while the Big 12 and ACC have collectively taken 5 spots between them the last two years (the ACC took 2 ones year, but the Big 12 has had the higher seeds). As we look at conferences races, that helps to keep in mind. I think the ACC and Big 12 goal is both to get a 2nd or more in (with one high ranked team) while the Big Ten and SEC is to keep a minimum of 3 in. The SEC so far looks more likely of the two to be higher than that, but specific teams at the end matters most.
-Ole Miss beat their former coach in a much hyped up game. That gives them the the third best odds of winning the conference and in a good early position for the playoff. They cannot take too long to celebrate as they have another tough game this week (at Florida). Kentucky stunned Texas A&M on the road, which seems particularly big after they couldn't get Alabama at home the week before. Oklahoma and Missouri won against teams from Group of 6 conferences, but didn't do so convincingly which is worth watching. Alabama was tighter with Florida State than I would have guessed, but still won and the Kentucky win now looks bigger. If the SEC wants 4-5 teams in, it probably needs to keep close to that many teams with fewer than 3 losses (maybe a last one gets in with 3). If only 3 conference favorites make the CFP this year that would currently be Georgia, Texas, and Ole Miss. The next two are LSU and Alabama.
-The Big Ten saw its ranked teams win, but is probably not trilled with USC having a game with winless Rutgers (a very long conference game by distance). On the flip side, Northwestern (not ranked, but still undefeated) gave Colorado their first loss and it wasn't even close.
-Wake Forest kept the game closer than I would guessed with Miami, but the hurricanes keep winning. The conference would love them to keep winning and give them a very high seed going into the playoff. In the battle of ranked teams, Louisville beat SMU. They are still the 2nd and 3rd favorite to win the whole conference so that was a huge game. It probably would have been slightly better for the conference if SMU had won given Louisville lost a game (but it was a close one to Ole Miss which looks good right now). Beyond that, the ACC's only other ranked team in Virginia did lose to West Virginia.
-The Big 12 also had a big early ranked game this week. For them, Texas Tech beat Houston by two. This gives Texas Tech the best odds to win the conference and go back to the playoff. Houston definitely drops down by a bit in a fairly wide open Big 12. Ranked BYU and Utah won out of conference games and West Virginia beat ranked Virginia giving the conference an overall pretty good week (dampened a bit by Colorado losing badly to Northwestern: they would have loved some Coach Sanders hype).
-Group of 6 CFP race:
-After this week there are only 6 undefeated teams in the Group of 6 conferences. The PAC-12 lost its last undefeated team. While I think the most likely outcome is not to have an undefeated Group of 6 conference team in this year, the conference has to be a little disappointed in its first year back so far. That said, Boise State survived the trap at South Dakota to set-up a big game with Western Michigan. Western Michigan, for their part, won a 4 quarter game at Rice. UMass remains unbeaten, but I think Western Michigan is the MAC's best chance still. That will either be cemented or destroyed next week against Boise State in a game very large for both teams and conferences.
-Across the other Group of 6 conferences, South Florida and Tulsa remained unbeaten by beating FCS teams this week, Appalachian State won a game the Sun Belt really needed to have to stay unbeaten, UTSA didn't look bad vs. Texas, UCF beat an undefeated Georgia State team to an American vs. Sun Belt comparison, Troy looked OK vs. Mizzou, James Madison went to the west coast and beat San Diego State, New Mexico made it a game vs. Oklahoma, Middle Tennessee gave Conference USA a win over the Mountain West, Fresno State beat fellow California San Jose State in a game that helps the PAC-12.
Week 4 Thoughts:
-By my count, we have 6 games between undefeated teams.
Howard at Winless Rutgers (Friday): Rutgers was closer than expected vs. USC. They will probably get their first win this week.
Undefeated Northwestern at Undefeated Indiana: Indiana is a 3 touchdown favorite, but their competition so far has been very limited and Northwestern just beat Colorado badly. This could be more of a game than people think.
Undefeated Texas at Undefeated Tennessee: Texas is #1 in the country, but they are going on the road and Tennessee is less than a 5 point underdog. They immediately move up the ranking quickly with a home win here.
Wake Forest at Louisville: Both have 1-loss. Louisville has the 2nd best odds in the conference and comes in a 12 point favorite, but Wake Forest kept it competitive with Miami last week.
Undefeated Notre Dame at Purdue: Last week Notre Dame played Michigan State and this week Purdue. It feels a bit like their old schedule.
Oklahoma at Undefeated Georgia: Oklahoma has seemed off this year. A win here would change that feeling completely and Michigan, in particular, would appreciate it. That said, Georgia is favorite to win the SEC and two touchdown favorites here.
Undefeated Ole Miss at Undefeated Florida: Ole Miss is coming off a game they put all their emotions into and now go to the swamp. Florida is a small favorite here. They will start to get a lot more attention with a win here.
Undefeated Utah at Iowa State: One of the ranked Big 12 teams going on the road. They are about a touchdown favorite.
Undefeated Iowa at Undefeated Michigan: Winner of this will start to get more serious consideration for winning the Big Ten. Michigan is the favorite.
Boise State at Western Michigan: Huge for both the MAC and PAC-12. Western Michigan will get a lot of sympathy if its only loss ends up being to Michigan the way it was. Boise State is favorite in the PAC-12 and their best hope for the CFP. Winner leaves with high hopes. Losing conference (not just team) has a lot harder time (although not none).
Wisconsin at Undefeated Penn State: Penn State is well ranked and the Big Ten would like to keep it that way after a bit of a rougher than expected start. Wisconsin needs a good win though and are 10 point underdogs.
Undefeated James Madison at Old Dominion: The Sun Belt's best chance at the CFP is keep a team undefeated. James Madison is a 6 point road favorite.
Undefeated Kansas State at Undefeated Cincinnati: Cincinnati had a come from behind win last week to take the last of the scheduled Victory Bell games. Kansas State comes into this undefeated and with the 4th best odds in the Big 12.
Oklahoma State at Undefeated West Virginia: West Virginia won against a ranked team last week. Keep going and they will enter the rankings. Oklahoma State has a loss, but also the Oregon win. The line is close.
Texas A&M at LSU: Both teams enter very disappointed after last week. A loss would come close to ending SEC hopes and leave zero margin on CFP race.
Oregon at Undefeated USC: Big west coast game in the Big Ten. USC struggled some with Rutgers last week and Oregon comes in with a surprising blemish. Oregon is a 3 point favorite, but the winner of this is most likely to end up the highest ranked Big Ten team in the far west.
Undefeated Appalachian State at North Carolina State: NCSU is a 14 point favorite, but it would be very nice for the Sun Belt if it could somehow pull off it off.
Undefeated Missouri at Undefeated Mississippi State: Winner moves up in ranking and in CFP chances. Mississippi State is a small favorite.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 4, American: 2, Big 12: 6, Big Ten: 9, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 0, SEC: 9, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 1, total: 35
Duke
Miami (FL)
Virginia Tech
Kansas State
Missouri
Nebraska
Texas
Texas Tech
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
South Florida
West Virginia
Indiana
Iowa
Michigan
Northwestern
Penn State
Tulsa
Brigham Young
Utah
Southern California
UCLA
Washington
Florida
Georgia
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
Alabama
Mississippi State
Mississippi
Notre Dame
Massachusetts
Appalachian State
James Madison
North Dakota State
Remaining Winless Teams: American: 1, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 7
Charlotte
Rutgers
Western Kentucky
Bowling Green
Northern Illinois
Utah State
Louisiana-Monroe
