Note: Due to a death in the family, this week's update was a bit rushed.
Teams with 1st Loss Week 12:
(James Madison)
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 12:
none
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 37.6% (50 of 133)
Week 2: 38.6% (32 of 83)
Week 3: 23.5% (12 of 51)
Week 4: 30.8% (12 of 39)
Week 5: 18.5% (5 of 27)
Week 6: 36.4% (8 of 22)
Week 7: 21.4% (3 of 14)
Week 8: 18.2% (2 of 11)
Week 9: 11.1% (1 of 9)
Week 10: 12.5% (1 of 8)
Week 11: 0% (0 of 7)
Week 12: 14.3% (1 of 7)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
5: Ohio State/Michigan, Florida State, Georgia, Washington, and Liberty
-With James Madison's lose to Appalachian State, we no longer can have an undefeated Sun Belt team.
Week 12 Thoughts:
-James Madison lost for the first time, eliminating our last undefeated team from the Sun Belt. They are still atop of the division, but can't make the championship game due to being in their two year transition period. Appalachian State still is alive in the Sun Belt with the win.
-Our undefeated teams in the power 5 conference keep winning. Washington had a game with Oregon State, but pulled it off. I don't think there is a single one loss team that, as yet, controls its own destiny for the CFP bowls. Alabama is closest, but a 1-loss Texas would beat them out due to head to head most likely so still needs one more loss (meanwhile Texas would probably be in if them and Alabama win out, but might not be able to beat out other one loss teams if Georgia wins).
-Washington has locked in their place in the PAC-12 title with the win over the Beavers, but the 2nd team is not yet decided. Oregon will be in if they beat Oregon State this week. Arizona is in if they win and Oregon loses. Given all that has happened, Oregon State would especially love to make the last traditional Civil War one where they knock Oregon out of both the PAC-12 and national title race.
-Louisville locked in their place in the ACC vs. Florida State with a win vs. Miami. Both Louisville and Florida State look to avoid upsets against their instate SEC rivals this week. Louisville needs a lot to go right to get in the CFP at this point (we have below average chaos this year so far). Florida State is fine if they win out, but probably not with a loss. As the Orange Bowl is a non-playoff bowl this year, an ACC team must be in it, so, if Florida State goes to the CFP, Louisville is likely in the Orange Bowl.
-The Game will decide the Big Ten East this week as Ohio State and Michigan prepare for the final regular season game between undefeated teams. In the west, Iowa has locked in their place with an elite defense (sadly not a great offense to go with it).
-The Big 12 remains up for grabs with all kinds of scenarios. Texas has the easiest path, just needing to win and could take with a loss too depending on circumstances. They are the only Big 12 CFP contender and need to root hard for Alabama winning out in addition to taking the Big 12. Oklahoma State controls their destiny if Texas wins having beaten both Oklahoma and Kansas State. If Texas wins, Oklahoma could take it with an Oklahoma State loss. Kansas State would need both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State to lose if Texas wins. If Texas loses, well, there are a lot of scenarios. I'll leave those to others, but it is the best way for chaos (at a conference level).
-Alabama and Georgia will meet up in two weeks. Both won and play instate rivals they will be highly favored over this week.
-This will be the last game for Oregon State, Missouri, Penn State, Ole Miss, LSU and possibly Oklahoma and Arizona. These border line teams would love a great win to push their New Years 6 hopes. Louisville would benefit too if Florida State somehow lost to Florida (if Florida State wins that game, Louisville is likely going to at least the Orange Bowl win or lose the championship). If your team is among them, especially one ranked a little lower now, root against the others.
Group of 5 New Year Six Race
-Tulane and SMU won last week. If both Tulane and SMU win this next week, I think the American champ is in no matter what (I could be wrong with SMU, but I lean that way right now). Tulane plays UTSA though and UTSA is playing to go to the American Championship too. If you are rooting for any other conference team to get in, you need to root against both Tulane and SMU this week and hope for some love from the committee.
-UNLV beat Air Force and is now the last remaining 2-loss Mountain West team. I think them and Liberty are the next ranked ones outside the American. They need to hope for a 3 loss American team.
-Liberty is the last unbeaten from a Group of 5 conference, but the schedule continues to hurt them. They might beat out UNLV, but will need help in the American.
-Troy still has two losses in the Sun Belt. They could possibly still get the spot with chaos in the American, but I would lean to them needing help from UNLV and Liberty too. That might not be right though.
-Toledo surprises with 1-loss in the MAC, but they need a lot of chaos to get in.
Week 13 Thoughts:
Undefeated Ohio State at Undefeated Michigan: This is the final game of the regular season between undefeated teams. Winner is in the Big Ten championship and likely the CFP bowls. The loser might find a way in, but would need several upsets.
UTSA at 1-loss Tulane: Winner to the American championship. If you want a different conference team in the NY6, root against Tulane.
Oregon State at 1-loss Oregon: If Oregon wins the final traditional Civil War and they face Washington in the PAC-12 title. If Oregon State beats them after a close, but disappointing end last week, Arizona can earn their way in. The best playoff hopes for the conference are to have Oregon win. The Big Ten would love to see the two playing for the championship.
Undefeated Florida State at Florida: Florida State is less than a touchdown favorite. If Florida wins this game, they are bowl eligible and likely knocked the ACC from the CFP. If you want a 1-loss team (aside from Louisville) making the CFP bowls, root for Florida here hard.
Given it is rivalry week in the last week before so many changes, I planned on going through more, but that will have to do for this week. Thanks everyone.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 0, total: 6
Florida State
Michigan
Ohio State
Washington
Georgia
Liberty
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 0, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 7
Tulane
Toledo
Alabama
Texas
Oregon
Louisville
(James Madison)
