Teams with 1st Loss Week 12:
none
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 12:
Michigan State
Wake Forest
Oregon
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
3: Georgia, Cincinnati, UTSA
-No change from last week.
Teams with 1st loss:
Week 0 and 1: 41.53% (54 of 130)
Week 2: 34.21% (26 of 76)
Week 3: 32% (16 of 50)
Week 4: 23.53% (8 of 34)
Week 5: 34.62% (9 of 26)
Week 6: 23.53% (4 of 17)
Week 7: 15.38% (2 of 13)
Week 8: 18.18% (2 of 11)
Week 9: 33.33% (3 of 9)
Week 10: 33.33% (2 of 6)
Week 11: 25% (1 of 4)
Week 12: 0% (0 of 3)
Week 12 Thoughts:
-UTSA was down until late and I thought we were going to lose another undefeated. As it is, going all the way to week 12 before we have a week losing no undefeated teams is definitely late.
-Oregon losing in the PAC-12 and Wake Forest in the ACC has removed the last contenders for the CFP from both conferences outside of the extreme chaos. Both teams now do need to win their last game to make sure they end up in their respective conference championship games. On the other side of those games, Utah and Pitt have both locked themselves into the PAC-12 and ACC Championships respectfully. If Wake Forest loses next week, either NC State (if they win) or Clemson (if both Wake and NC State lose) will be in the ACC title game based on tie-breakers. In the PAC-12, if Oregon loses, it will be Washington State if they win or Oregon State (if Washington State loses too).
-Ohio State defeating Michigan State removed the Spartans from both the national title and Big Ten races. It also removed the last chance for us to have a strong 1-loss team outside of a championship game (if Michigan State and Michigan had both won out, Michigan would have been a strong 1-loss team not in a championship game). For the Big Ten East, it all comes down Ohio State/Michigan this week (which feels appropriate). In the West, Wisconsin held on against a Nebraska team that this year has played close with absolutely everyone, but doesn't seem to win any of them and Iowa won. If Wisconsin wins this week, they are going to Indianapolis. If not, Iowa can take with a win. If both somehow lost, you could have a 3 or 4 way tie atop the west.
-Alabama vs. Georgia is now officially set as the SEC Championship. Should Alabama lose to Auburn next week, would the committee still put Alabama in if they beat Georgia and became SEC Champions with 2 losses? My money is definitely on yes. No matter what, if you're team is on the edge, you are looking for Georgia to win the SEC.
-Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Baylor all won in the Big 12. The former two are in the CFP race and I do expect them to start making jumps in the rankings with the late higher profile wins. For the Big 12 Championship, if Oklahoma beats Oklahoma State this week, we will get a repeat of the game a week later in the Big 12 Championship. If Oklahoma State wins, then it will be Oklahoma State vs. Baylor as long as Baylor wins this week (if Baylor loses, then Oklahoma is back in anyway). For anyone on the edge of the CFP race, the key is to have whomever wins Bedlam this week to lose the following week.
-Notre Dame has been quietly rising up the ranking. At this point, this pretty much zero chance they jump Cincinnati if the Bearcats win out (if they were going to do that, it likely would have already happened; not enough left on schedule now to justify). I also expect a 1-loss Big 12 champ to eventually jump them if we get one (Oklahoma/Oklahoma State would get two more solid wins on the resume which would make a difference). That said, Notre Dame beat Stanford this week and they are 11-1 and only a few chaos pieces from getting in. The odds are definitely against, but there are reasonable scenarios to get them in (although not nearly the odds I've seen ESPN at putting them in).
-Cincinnati finally really looked the way we've been waiting to see. Against one of the better teams on the schedule, they absolutely dominated them. UC has had one of the only years since the start of the CFP where I think things are lining up to give them a chance to get in (if we had a dominant Clemson and a stronger Oklahoma, this would be much more uphill). I still think a 1-loss Big 12 Champ is a threat to jump the Bearcats (although not quite as guaranteed as I'd have thought before) and with possibility of 2 SEC teams and 1 from the Big Ten, they might need just one more break (Georgia over Alabama being the easiest), but it is now more likely than not they get it if they win out. Other on the edge, need to root against the Bearcats.
-For the rest of the Group of 5, if we assume that Houston will beat UConn next week (one of the worst FBS teams this year), then I think we are talking a 3 or 4 team race for the NY6 spot. Cincinnati obviously takes this if they win out. UTSA is undefeated in Conference USA, but are close to Houston in the rankings and I don't think being undefeated will be enough to overcome Houston beating Cincinnati in the American even if Cincinnati were to lose next week against East Carolina first. If UTSA is to make that jump though, they need Cincinnati and Houston to look unimpressive the next 2 weeks with Houston winning a sloppy game. The other other team in consideration is San Diego State. While they haven't played as impressive the 2nd half of the year, they have a win over Utah who is now favored to win the PAC-12 and are higher than Houston now. If Utah wins the PAC-12 and San Diego State wins out, I think the Aztecs would beat Houston if it came down to that. I think it would also be very close if it came down to a 1-loss San Diego State and a 1-loss Cincinnati (if they lose to East Carolina, but win conference).
Week 13 Thoughts:
1-loss Ohio State @ 1-loss Michigan: The Game as it should be. Winner here goes onto the Big Ten Championship and loser is done. Buckeyes are favorites but only by a bit over a touchdown.
1-loss Oklahoma @ 1-loss Oklahoma State: Oklahoma wins this and we get a rematch next week. If the Cowboys win, we get Oklahoma State vs. Baylor if Baylor wins (if not, we still get a rematch). Winner much more in the CFP race than many assume, but might need some things to go right.
-Boise State @ 1-loss San Diego State (Friday): Boise State has been playing well recently and San Diego State has dropped a bit. Boise State is favored here. If you are UTSA or Houston, you really want Boise State to win this. Boise can make the Mountain West Championship, but will need some help.
Undefeated Cincinnati @ East Carolina (Friday): Kind of a trap game here. Bearcats won the big game last week and have another next week, but this a road game on a Friday against a team that is 3rd in the American right now. It would still be good for the Bearcats CFP odds to look impressive in this, but less important than before. That said, 2 games in a row does leave a different impression than just one monster week.
Undefeated UTSA @ North Texas: UTSA needs to win big to get attention for the NY6 spot.
1-loss Alabama @ Auburn: Alabama is very large favorite here. It probably doesn't matter too much at this point, but it is probably better for anyone on the edge to at least see this game be close. It is better not to give the committee any reasons to push up a 2-loss Alabama if it comes to that.
1-loss Notre Dame @ Stanford: This is the Irish's last chance to show the committee something. Win and they are in a NY6 bowl for sure (might even be with a loss). With a decent, but not unreasonable amount of chaos, they could find their way to #4. Cincinnati also very much needs to root for them finishing strong.
Other Games:
Iowa @ Nebraska (Friday): Iowa could still make Big Ten Championship with a Wisconsin loss. Can Nebraska pull out at least one win against the better teams?
North Carolina @ NC State (Friday): NC State is in the ACC Championship with a win and Wake Forest loss.
Wake Forest @ Boston College: If Wake wins, they are in the ACC Championship vs. Pitt.
Texas Tech @ Baylor: Baylor wins this and they are in the Big 12 Championship if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma.
Florida @ Florida State: Both are 5-6 and this is for a bowl. Very weird to see.
Wisconsin @ Minnesota: A game for the best rivalry trophy in sports. If Wisconsin wins, they off to Indianapolis again. If they lose, Iowa gets it with a win. If both lose, we are talking a 3 or 4 way tie atop the west and I don't have time for those tie-breakers right now.
BYU @ USC: BYU has had a really good season and stands a chance at a NY6 bowl with a couple breaks (they are #14 right now and likely need to end up no lower than 11). They have wins over Utah (in PAC-12 Championship), Washington State (in running for PAC-12 North), and Baylor (possiblely in Big 12 Championship) so some of their wins might look more impressive soon.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: American: 1, Conference USA: 1, SEC: 1, total: 3
Cincinnati
Georgia
UTSA
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 0, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 0, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 9
Houston
Ohio State
Louisiana-Lafayette
Notre Dame
Alabama
Oklahoma State
San Diego State
Michigan
Oklahoma
