Teams with 1st Loss Week 14:
Georgia
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 14:
Tulane
Toledo
Oregon
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 37.6% (50 of 133)
Week 2: 38.6% (32 of 83)
Week 3: 23.5% (12 of 51)
Week 4: 30.8% (12 of 39)
Week 5: 18.5% (5 of 27)
Week 6: 36.4% (8 of 22)
Week 7: 21.4% (3 of 14)
Week 8: 18.2% (2 of 11)
Week 9: 11.1% (1 of 9)
Week 10: 12.5% (1 of 8)
Week 11: 0% (0 of 7)
Week 12: 14.3% (1 of 7)
Week 13: 16.7% (1 of 6)
Week 14: 20% (1 of 5)
Number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
4: Michigan, Florida State, Washington, and Liberty
-We lost Georgia this weekend with their lose to Alabama
Week 14 Thoughts:
-This was the anti-upset season. Among the final 7 choices for the committee were three undefeated power 5 champs, a 1-loss Georgia who was on an incredibly long win streak (including last years national championship) before losing a close one in the SEC Championship, a 1-loss SEC champ who beat that Georgia team, a 1-loss Big 12 champ who beat the SEC champ, and an Ohio State team who was #1 in the ranking most the season and only loss was a close one on the road to the eventual number 1 team. In different years, any of these teams could have been in the 4 team playoff. Ohio State arguably had a weaker resume last year and got in at #4 and neither Florida State nor Alabama with their resumes would have been left out of any other CFP in my view over the past decade.
-I am a little shocked nothing happened to make the committee's decision any easier between Alabama, Florida State, and Texas. I started mentioning that scenario weeks ago, but it was only going to take one loss by someone to upend it and none came. I'll admit to being wrong about how it would play out though. I assumed an undefeated power 5 champ was in regardless, although I think Florida State would have been with a healthy starting quarterback.
-The undefeated influence was interesting. When it came down to taking an SEC champ that they all likely thought would easily beat the current Florida State or Florida State, they choose to go SEC Champ. On the flip side, they gave the New Years Six edge to an undefeated Liberty with a bad strength of schedule over a 2-loss SMU with a stronger one. I'm not saying either choice was wrong (I don't think there was a clearly right choice; although I would have personally put in Florida State), but it was interesting they came out on opposite sides of it in those two cases.
-With Liberty and Florida State outside the playoff, the most undefeated teams we can theoretically end up with is 3.
-The American and the MAC were eliminated from all lists this week with the loss of Tulane and Toledo. Tulane would have had the NY6 spot with a win. The loss shifted it to Liberty.
-I know there was controversy to end the year and I know there are advantages to next years 12 team set-up, but I have loved following the sport like this and will miss it next year a lot. That said, I can't change it so, so let's hope it is an exciting first year.
Bowl Thoughts:
Rose Bowl: Undefeated Michigan vs. 1-loss Alabama: I was hoping Georgia would beat Alabama so this would have been between the undefeated Big Ten and PAC-12 champs for one last glorious traditional Rose Bowl. As is stands, it is instead between the two most likely to win the national championship. The line is close and the winner will be favored to take it all.
Sugar Bowl: Undefeated Washington vs. 1-loss Texas: Texas is favored in this game, but it would nice to see the PAC-12 have one last crowning achievement. For Texas, it is their first time in the CFP. For Washington it is their 2nd. Between the Rose and Sugar Bowls, we might get a Big Ten vs. future Big Ten match-up or an SEC vs. future SEC match-up.
Orange Bowl: Undefeated Florida State vs. 1-Loss Georgia: This game has significance. If Florida State goes out and beats Georgia, especially if that is combined with an Alabama loss, that is a bit of an embarrassment to the committee and might effect future actions. Beyond that, with the Big Ten and SEC gaining so much power, it is important for the ACC to show it still is a factor. Winning this could be important for future attention and rankings.
Fiesta Bowl: Undefeated Liberty vs. Oregon: After the devastating raids of the Conference USA left it with little, it actually got its first BCS/NY6 bid. Liberty had a very weak strength of schedule, but went undefeated in it, taking out a New Mexico State team that beat Auburn. Oregon is very disappointed to be in this game while Liberty is ecstatic. The ducks are very large favorites, but there are intangibles, that don't favor them here.
Cotton Bowl: 1-loss Ohio State vs. Missouri: Missouri makes its first NY6/BCS game (a surprise for me to see; they have been just outside a lot). In many ways, a similar set-up to the Fiesta Bowl with Ohio State disappointed to be here, but Missouri happy (if not to quite the same degree) . This is a Big Ten/SEC match-up even though it doesn't feel that way with two Midwestern teams. Winning this will effect how both are looked at going into next season. Ohio State already has several out including their starting quarterback who is transferring away.
Peach Bowl: Penn State vs. Ole Miss: Ole Miss benefited from Florida State not making the playoff. Had Florida State been in the playoff bowls, Louisville would have been in the Orange Bowl as the ACC representative and there would have been one less at large spot which Ole Miss took. This feels like a game either school could take. Penn State lost to Ohio State and Michigan. Ole Miss lost to Georgia and Alabama.
Armed Forces Bowl: 1-loss James Madison vs. Air Force: James Madison wasn't eligible for the NY6, but still got a bowl bid because of not enough 6-6 or better teams. Their last game as an FBS transition team, in a year they have been very good in, is against an Air Force team that was competing for the Mountain West title, but came short.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 0, total: 4
Florida State
Michigan
Washington
Liberty
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 0, American: 0, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 0, PAC-12: 0, SEC: 2, Sun Belt: 1, total: 4
Alabama
Texas
(James Madison)
Ohio State
Georgia
