Teams with 1st Loss Week 8:
Penn State
North Carolina
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 8:
Duke
Tennessee
Southern California
Iowa
Miami (OH)
Teams with 1st Win Week 8:
Nevada
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 37.6% (50 of 133)
Week 2: 38.6% (32 of 83)
Week 3: 23.5% (12 of 51)
Week 4: 30.8% (12 of 39)
Week 5: 18.5% (5 of 27)
Week 6: 36.4% (8 of 22)
Week 7: 21.4% (3 of 14)
Week 8: 18.2% (2 of 11)
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
8: Eight conference champs (all except the MAC and American)
No changes this week
Week 8 Thoughts:
-With Penn State's loss to Ohio State and North Carolina going down, we now only have 1 possible game between undefeated teams before bowl season and that is Ohio State-Michigan.
-We lost one of our winless teams this week, but not the one I expected. Sam Houston was a favorite in their game, but lost in overtime. Nevada was a two touchdown underdog to San Diego State on the road. They won and broke a 16 game losing streak. Sam Houston is our last winless team. Good job Nevada this week.
-The Ohio State-Penn State game was the 2nd big game Ohio State won this year that seemed to be focused on the defense rather than the offense. They will likely need to get the offense better in these games to to beat Michigan. Regardless, this now leaves them and Michigan in control of the Big Ten east. Penn State has a chance to get back in it though. They host Michigan. A three way tie could end up going their way if things break right. In the west, things are muddied again as Iowa suffered their 2nd loss (if they had a half decent offense to go with their very good defense, this would be a really good team). Wisconsin is back on top for the moment, but Minnesota, Nebraska, and Iowa are all within a game.
-North Carolina lost to long time rival Virginia. This limits the ACC's playoff chances. Florida State is getting in undefeated no question, but would prefer a strong opponent in the ACC Championship in case they have one loss and stiff competition. The North Carolina loss lowers those odds. Beyond Florida State, 1-loss North Carolina and Louisville are still candidates, but I think a decent bit has to go right for both of them even if they do win out (although they would probably beat out any two loss champs).
-Oklahoma and Texas both survived closer than expected games in the Big 12 against UCF and Houston. Despite these two being the only two realistically in the national title race, I would suspect the conference leadership would prefer someone else win the conference. Texas is the easier one to knock off as they have the loss to Oklahoma. On the other side of the coin, there is a small chance both make the CFP if both win out and Texas beats Oklahoma in a rematch. That likely all disappears if one of them lose another game.
-Tennessee looked to make it a game vs. Alabama in a battle of one loss teams, but Alabama pulled ahead. In the west, Alabama is an LSU loss away from an effective two game lead. In the east, Missouri beat South Carolina. Mizzou and Florida both still have one loss and could control a tie breaker over Georgia if they upset the bulldogs in upcoming games.
-Utah beat USC to keep their hopes of 3 straight PAC-12 titles alive. There are still 5 teams with one or fewer conference losses, so the final conference title, as the conference currently is made up, is still wide open. USC is alive on that list, but is likely out of any national title race with 2 total losses.
Group of 5 NY6 Bowl
-We didn't have a lot of change this week. There are 8 remaining undefeated or 1-loss teams outside the power 5 conferences. One of them is ineligible for the NY6 bowl. With a lot of football left, it is very possible we end up with a 2 loss team in this year. That said, we actually only lost one of those teams from that list this week (Miami).
-Toledo beat Miami (OH) to become the last 1-loss MAC team. They are a pretty big long shot for the NY6 spot, but if anyone in the MAC can find a way now, it now has to be Toledo.
-Liberty won, but only took that lead in the 4th quarter. They probably have the best chance of anyone in the G5 conferences to finish undefeated, but the committee has shown it cares about strength of schedule for that spot. They really need to start being a little more dominant or hope for more upsets of the top Group of 5 conference teams (or ideally both).
-Air Force won the first set of games for the Commander and Chief Trophy. The schedule ahead of them is tough, but they do control their destiny.
Week 9 Thoughts:
-We have 2 games between two one loss teams this week.
1-loss Oregon at 1-loss Utah: Loser will have two conference losses and need a decent bit of help to make the PAC-12 championship. They will also likely be out of the playoff bowl picture. The winner though will probably be in a better position than anyone else beside Washington in the conference.
1-loss UNLV at 1-loss Fresno State: The winner of this will be competing with Air Force as the team with the best chance for the NY6 from the Mountain West. Fresno is favored by 9.
UTEP at winless Sam Houston (Wednesday): Sam Houston is still looking for their first win as an FBS (transition) team. They are favored in this one by a few points.
Undefeated Liberty at Western Kentucky (Tuesday): Liberty is only a small favorite here. This could be big for the conference championship. For a NY6 spot, Liberty is much better to win this convincingly.
Undefeated Georgia vs. Florida: The world's largest cocktail party. If Florida were to pull off the upset, they would be tied with Georgia and control the tie breaker. Unlikely that happens, but I wouldn't call it stunning to see.
1-loss Georgia State at Georgia Southern (Thursday): Georgia State is now the Sun Belt's best hope for the NY6. They are an underdog in this game, but the conference would prefer they win out.
Undefeated Oklahoma at Kansas: Oklahoma is favored by 10 here, but Kansas has had a good year and could certainly win it.
Duke at 1-loss Louisville: Winner of this game is pretty decent shape for the ACC Championship.
1-loss Tulane at Rice: Tulane is a 11.5 point favorite here, but it is very important for the American that Tulane wins this. If they lose, the conference needs to hope a 2-loss champ will be enough this year.
Undefeated Ohio State at Wisconsin: Buckeyes don't want a let up after winning last week. Wisconsin is back atop the west, but will fall from there with a loss.
BYU at Undefeated Texas: This would be a fairly large upset, but BYU has pulled off some decent upsets this year.
Undefeated Air Force at Colorado State: Air Force is an 11.5 point favorite here. Best for the Mountain West to have them keep winning.
1-Loss North Carolina at Georgia Tech: North Carolina is an 11.5 point favorite, but coming off a tough loss. The top of the ACC will look a lot stronger if North Carolina can get back to winning.
1-loss Oregon State at Arizona: Oregon State still has the chance for a special season here with only 1 loss. Arizona has been hanging tough against everyone the last few games though and beat Washington State (whom beat Oregon State).
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 1, total: 9
Florida State
Oklahoma
Michigan
Ohio State
Air Force
Washington
Georgia
Liberty
(James Madison)
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 2, American: 1, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 0, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 2, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 1, total: 15
Tulane
Toledo
UNLV
Oregon State
Utah
Alabama
Mississippi
Georgia State
Texas
Missouri
Fresno State
Oregon
Louisville
Penn State
North Carolina
Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 0, total: 1
(Sam Houston)
