Teams with 1st Loss Week 8:
Coastal Carolina
Oklahoma State
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 8:
Penn State
North Carolina State
Air Force
Nevada
Teams with 1st Win Week 8:
none
Maximum number of Undefeated Teams at the End of the Regular Season:
7: Conference champs of every conference except the MAC, PAC-12, and Sun Belt
-We lost one of this week with the last unbeaten in the Sun Belt losing with Coastal Carolina's loss.
Teams with 1st loss:
Week 0 and 1: 41.53% (54 of 130)
Week 2: 34.21% (26 of 76)
Week 3: 32% (16 of 50)
Week 4: 23.53% (8 of 34)
Week 5: 34.62% (9 of 26)
Week 6: 23.53% (4 of 17)
Week 7: 15.38% (2 of 13)
Week 8: 18.18% (2 of11)
Week 8 Thoughts:
-This week was the first week we did not see a team gets its first win.
-The ACC and PAC-12 both continue to stay in the CFP race even if they are looking down. Oregon won in a game they were not favored in at UCLA. They will almost certainly make it if they win out and, despite some close calls, they do still only have 1 loss. In the ACC, North Carolina State lost removing them as a potential CFP contender, but Wake Forest and Pitt both won, with Pitt getting past the Clemson hurdle. Wake Forest definitely controls its own destiny as one of the last 9 undefeated teams. Pitt would definitely need some help, but if they finished as a 12-1 ACC Champ, they would get a lot more consideration than I think many imagine.
-On the flip side, the Big Ten and Big 12 positions dropped a tad this week. Both are still fairly well positioned, but the Big Ten has seen Iowa and Penn State both drop a game in recent weeks. Penn State is most likely out with 2 losses and Iowa has to win out. Michigan and Michigan State are undefeated still with Ohio State surging with 1-loss, but there are a lot of games between them coming up and none have played Penn State either. If you get a 2-loss champion, the conference would be danger of being out even if there are several high ranked teams. For the Big 12, Oklahoma State dropped one. The Cowboys and Baylor have no margin for error left, while Oklahoma looked quite mortal vs. Kansas.
-At the Group of 5 level, the Sun Belt was most likely eliminated this week with the loss of Coastal Carolina. That said, it was still a fairly good week for the conference as realignment news suggests that Sun Belt is going to be reversing its role with Conference USA as it will be the one raiding the latter this time, reversing what had been a clear pecking order before (something that does not often happen).
The Mountain West has effectively eliminated every team except San Diego State outside of very unlikely circumstances with Air Force falling this week.
I believe at this point we can say that the race for the Group of 5 autobid is effectively between Cincinnati (who remains in the CFP race as well despite a bit weaker performance this week), SMU, Houston, UTSA, and San Diego State. There are certainly scenarios to bring in others, but I don't think any others come into play unless you have a 2 loss champion of both the Mountain West and American or some amazing out of conference win.
Week 9 Thoughts:
-We have only 2 potential games between undefeated teams before bowl season now. I missed one before and it is between Cincinnati and SMU. The other one is this week with Michigan at Michigan State. The winner here will control their Big Ten destiny and CFP destiny. Michigan is the small favorite here, but whomever wins will be the one viewed as the team most likely to fight Ohio State for the divisional title.
Undefeated SMU @ 1-loss Houston: Houston is favored here. Better for American to build up SMU right now, but both teams definitely in race to get to American Championship Game.
1-loss Iowa @ Wisconsin: Wisconsin is a small favorite here. Anyone rooting to get the Big Ten out of the CFP race needs to root for Wisconsin here. If Iowa loses again, that means a 2-loss team will be going to the Big Ten Championship Game.
Texas @ 1-loss Baylor: The Bears still only have one loss and are very much in the Big 12 race. For the CFP race, if you are rooting against the Big 12 getting a team in, you want Texas to win this and then let Baylor go on a wining streak after this.
Miami (FL) @ 1-loss Pitt: Pitt is a team that is sneakily getting into the CFP discussion. They beat Clemson last week and will be favored going forward most likely. A loss here would do a lot to hurt the ACC's chances (leaving just Wake).
1-loss Ole Miss at Auburn: Winner of this game could take SEC West if Alabama drops another.
Penn State @ 1-loss Ohio State: Buckeyes cannot afford to lose this one and stay in CFP race. Penn State effectively out now without a lot of help, but would be very big to win this still.
North Carolina @ 1-loss Notre Dame: Notre Dame's win mean a lot right now to Cincinnati fans. They are small favorites here and if you want Cincinnati in the CFP root for the Irish going forward.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 2, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 0, total: 9
Wake Forest
Oklahoma
Cincinnati
Michigan
Michigan State
Southern Methodist
San Diego State
Georgia
UTSA
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 2, Conference USA: 1, Mountain West: 0, PAC-12: 1. SEC: 3, Sun Belt: 2, independents: 1, total: 14
Pittsburgh
Houston
Baylor
Ohio State
UTEP
Oregon
Mississippi
Louisiana-Lafayette
Notre Dame
Alabama
Kentucky
Iowa
Coastal Carolina
Oklahoma State
Remaining Winless Teams: Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 1, total: 2
UNLV
Arizona
