Teams with 1st Loss Week 7:
Clemson
Washington State
Navy
San Diego State
Washington
Teams with 2nd Loss Week 7:
Troy
Auburn
Georgia Tech
Utah
Texas Tech
Houston
UTSA
Teams with 1st Win week 7:
None
Percent of Undefeated Teams with 1st Loss
Week 0/1: 36.15% (47/130)
Week 2: 37.35% (31/83)
Week 3: 28.85% (15/52)
Week 4: 35.13% (13/37)
Week 5: 29.17% (7/24)
Week 6: 23.53% (4/17)
Week 7: 38.46% (5/13)
Maximum possible Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season:
5: We drop by 2 as we lost all our possible undefeateds along the west coast this week. Both the undefeated Washington schools lost in the PAC-12 along with San Diego State in the Mountain West.
Possible undefeated teams: Alabama/Georgia, Penn State/Wisconsin, Miami (FL), Texas Christian, and Central Florida/South Florida
Week 7 Thoughts:
-What a week. This is why college football is so fun.
-With the losses this week, we now have the potential for only 3 games between undefeated teams in the regular season. Central Florida and South Florida play each other during Thanksgiving weekend. Penn State/Wisconsin and Alabama/Georgia would play each other in their conference championship games the following week if still unbeaten. At the very least that means we will go from week 5 to week 13 without any games between undefeated teams which I would guess is the longest stretch I have ever seen since starting this.
-The PAC-12 probably had the biggest shake-up this week. It is the first of the major conferences to lose its last unbeatens and there seems to be a ton of parity in the conference. While good on many levels, that probably is not good for the conferences Rose/Sugar hopes. Given history, it will be tough to get a 2-loss team into the top 4 (not impossible, but unlikely), which means all its Rose/Sugar hopefuls need to keep winning.
-The ACC saw the single biggest surprise of the week with Clemson falling to Syracuse. It looked like Maimi (FL) was going to fall too, but managed just beat Georgia Tech and stay unbeaten.
-We have kind of developed an expectation after 3 years of the CFP to how things work that I think we need to be careful with. Every team in so far has been a 0 or 1 loss team from one of the power 5 conferences. That’s a good thing to remember, but I think it is clouding how people look at this a little. Here are a few things that might become relevant if certain teams keep winning.
2 SEC teams: Georgia has looked extremely good so far this season and are going to be heavy favorites most the rest of the way (although do play at Auburn). Give it another couple of weeks like this and you are going to start to hear a lot of talk about possibly putting in both Alabama and Georgia if both go through unbeaten till the championship game. It’s still likely one of those 2 drop a game somewhere, but if they don’t, I think that’s a very real scenario.
Notre Dame: The Irish have USC next week, but have looked good this year with 1 loss. They have really gotten no major press as a national title contender, but if they beat USC next week, we will have to at least start thinking of scenarios with them in it.
-The Group of 5 bid saw some shake-up this week with Boise State beating previous unbeaten San Diego State and Navy losing to Memphis. To me this means USF and UCF now control their own destinies. Either one will get the bid if they win out and either is very, very close to securing it even with a loss if they win the American. The only chance I still see for a 1-loss USF/UCF American champ not making it would be to a 1-loss San Diego State (which would likely have them beating Boise State in a rematch) and that would still be up for debate. I think Boise State can get in this too, but they need the American champ to have at least 2 losses.
Week 8 Thoughts:
-We have our final game of the year between winless teams as Georgia Southern plays at UMass.
-We have 3 games between 2 teams who are undefeated or with 1-loss this week: 1-loss Michigan at undefeated Penn State, undefeated Central Florida at 1-loss Navy, and 1-loss USC at 1-loss Notre Dame.
-Our other undefeated teams are in the following games: Tennessee at undefeated Alabama, Kansas at undefeated TCU, Maryland @ undefeated Wisconsin, Syracuse at undefeated Miami (FL).
-Of those games, USC at Notre Dame stands out most to me. I don’t think either will end up making the Rose/Sugar, but do think the winner will get a big boost up in standing on that front from this game. It’s also feeling like a big game for the PAC-12.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 2, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 2, Mountain West: 0, PAC-12: 0, SEC: 2, total: 8
Miami (FL)
South Florida
Penn State
Wisconsin
Central Florida
Texas Christian
Georgia
Alabama
One-Loss Teams: ACC: 4, American: 2, Big 12: 2, Big Ten: 3, Conference USA: 1, MAC: 1, Mountain West: 1, PAC-12: 3, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 0, independents: 1, total: 19
Virginia
North Carolina State
Ohio State
Marshall
Notre Dame
Toledo
Oklahoma State
Kentucky
Michigan State
Southern California
Memphis
Virginia Tech
Oklahoma
Michigan
Clemson
Washington State
Navy
San Diego State
Washington
Remaining Winless Teams: Big 12: 1, Conference USA: 2, Sun Belt: 1, independents: 1, total: 5
Baylor
Charlotte
UTEP
Massachusetts
Georgia Southern
